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Are palaeobiodiversity patterns more apparent than real?

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Are palaeobiodiversity patterns
   more apparent than real?

         Graeme T. Lloyd

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Modern diversity is vast…

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…but all stems from a single ancestor

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Are palaeobiodiversity patterns more apparent than real?

  1. 1. Are palaeobiodiversity patterns more apparent than real? Graeme T. Lloyd
  2. 2. Modern diversity is vast…
  3. 3. …but all stems from a single ancestor
  4. 4. …but all stems from a single ancestor
  5. 5. How did life get so diverse? Last Universal Common Ancestor ?
  6. 6. How did life get so diverse? Last Universal Common Ancestor
  7. 7. Extant vs. fossil record Red – lineage through time plot based on extant data only Navy – lineage through time plot based on fossil data Ezard et al. 2011
  8. 8. Earliest diversity curves Agassiz 1843
  9. 9. Earliest diversity curves Philips 1860
  10. 10. Early diversity curves Valentine 1970
  11. 11. But can we trust the curves? David Raup Miller 2009, after Raup 1972
  12. 12. Raup’s two solutions Subsampling Modeling Alroy 2010; Lloyd 2012
  13. 13. Sepkoski’s compendia
  14. 14. The consensus paper Median trace fossil Dolf Seilacher assemblage richness Species richness David Raup (Zoological record data) Median open-marine Richard Bambach community species richness David Raup Genus diversity Jack Sepkoski Family diversity Sepkoski et al. 1981
  15. 15. 2000s: a the data –early solutions Collating return to Raup’s curves Alroy et al. 2001 Peters and Foote 2001
  16. 16. 2000s: a the data –early solutions Collating return to Raup’s curves Alroy et al. 2001 Peters and Foote 2001
  17. 17. Subsampling Collating the data –early curves Alroy et al. 2008 Alroy 2010
  18. 18. Modeling data –early curves Collating the Smith and McGowan 2007
  19. 19. Common cause hypothesis Collating the data –early curves Peters 2005
  20. 20. (Common) causal–early curves Collating the data arrows Genera/ Packages O C S Sr Sea- level Hannisdal and Peters 2011
  21. 21. But this the data –early curves Collating is only part of the story ? ? Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  22. 22. Dinosaurs data –early curves Collating the Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  23. 23. Dinosaurs - sampling curves Collating the data –early Dinosaur-bearing localities Palaeoarea covered Phylogenetic diversity Taxonomic diversity Dinosaur-bearing formations Benton et al. 2011
  24. 24. Dinosaurs - subsampling Collating the data –early curves Raw + ghosts Raw Subsampled Lloyd et al. 2008
  25. 25. Dinosaurs - modeling curves Collating the data –early Lloyd 2012
  26. 26. Dinosaurs – data –early curves Collating the common cause Non-marine Haq SL surface area Packages Miller SL DBCs DBFs Butler et al. 2011
  27. 27. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  28. 28. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data Lloyd et al. 2012
  29. 29. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data
  30. 30. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data - database Yellow pins – ODP/DSDP Green pins – Land-based localities
  31. 31. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sp.:genus Lloyd et al. 2012
  32. 32. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sp.:genus Species:Genus N Sites N Authors Lloyd et al. 2012
  33. 33. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sp.:genus Rarefied with respect to N localities Rarefied with respect to N taxonomists Lloyd et al. 2012
  34. 34. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data vs.
  35. 35. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – species Lloyd et al. 2012
  36. 36. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sampling Lloyd et al. 2012
  37. 37. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – correlation richness rho = 0.02 richness sampling sampling rho = 0.40 rho = 0.48 Lloyd et al. 2012
  38. 38. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – subsampling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
  39. 39. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – modeling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
  40. 40. Fishes the data –early curves Collating Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  41. 41. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating old curves Agassiz 1843
  42. 42. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating old curves Thomson 1977
  43. 43. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  44. 44. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 R^2 = 0.74 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 R^2 = 0.91 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  45. 45. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating global curves Agassiz 1843 R^2 = -0.21 Carroll 1988 R^2 = -0.15 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  46. 46. Fishes - database–early curves Collating the data Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  47. 47. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating collector curve Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  48. 48. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating grids sampled 1 2 3 4 0.5-degree net Plot localities Identify grids Count grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  49. 49. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating raw diversity Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  50. 50. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating proxies Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  51. 51. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating correlations Formations rho = 0.64 rho = 0.71 Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  52. 52. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating modeling Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  53. 53. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating subsampling Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  54. 54. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating modeling Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  55. 55. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating bone vs. cartilage Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  56. 56. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating bone vs. cartilage rho = 0.83 rho = 0.44 Formations rho = 0.53 rho = 0.20 Localities rho = 0.56 rho = 0.21 Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  57. 57. Conclusions data –early curves Collating the ? Sampling bias Sampling bias Common cause
  58. 58. Acknowledgements Collating the data –early curves Michael Steve Katie Matt Dave Rachel Benton Brusatte Davis Friedman Hone Jennings Davide Paul Marcello Manabu Andrew James Jeremy Pisani Pearson Ruta Sakamot Smith Tarver Young o
  59. 59. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating bone vs. cartilage Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

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