Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

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Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

  1. 1. Are our estimates ofpalaeobiodiversity more apparent than real? Graeme T. Lloyd
  2. 2. Modern diversity is vast…
  3. 3. …but all stems from a single ancestor
  4. 4. How did life get so diverse? LastUniversalCommonAncestor ?
  5. 5. How did life get so diverse? LastUniversalCommonAncestor
  6. 6. Extant vs. fossil record Red – lineage through time plot based on extant data only Navy – lineage through time plot based on fossil data Ezard et al. 2011
  7. 7. Extant vs. fossil record Near et al. 2012
  8. 8. Earliest diversity curves Agassiz 1843
  9. 9. Earliest diversity curves Philips 1860
  10. 10. Early diversity curves Valentine 1970
  11. 11. But can we trust the curves?David Raup Miller 2009, after Raup 1972
  12. 12. Raup’s two solutions Subsampling Modeling Alroy 2010; Lloyd 2012
  13. 13. Sepkoski’s compendia
  14. 14. The consensus paper Median trace fossil Dolf Seilacher assemblage richness Species richness David Raup (Zoological record data) Median open-marine Richard Bambach community species richness David Raup Genus diversity Jack Sepkoski Family diversitySepkoski et al. 1981
  15. 15. 2000s: a the data –early solutionsCollating return to Raup’s curves Alroy et al. 2001 Peters and Foote 2001
  16. 16. 2000s: a the data –early solutionsCollating return to Raup’s curves Alroy et al. 2001 Peters and Foote 2001
  17. 17. SubsamplingCollating the data –early curves Alroy et al. 2008 Alroy 2010
  18. 18. Modeling data –early curvesCollating the Smith and McGowan 2007
  19. 19. Common cause hypothesisCollating the data –early curves Peters 2005
  20. 20. (Common) causal–early curvesCollating the data arrows Genera/ Packages O C S Sr Sea- level Hannisdal and Peters 2011
  21. 21. The rest thethe story… curvesCollating of data –early ? ? Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  22. 22. Dinosaurs data –early curvesCollating the Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  23. 23. Dinosaurs - sampling curvesCollating the data –early Dinosaur-bearing localities Palaeoarea covered Phylogenetic diversity Taxonomic diversity Dinosaur-bearing formations Benton et al. 2011
  24. 24. Dinosaurs - subsamplingCollating the data –early curves Raw + ghosts Raw Subsampled Lloyd et al. 2008
  25. 25. Dinosaurs - modeling curvesCollating the data –early Lloyd 2012
  26. 26. Dinosaurs – data –early curvesCollating the common cause Non-marine Haq SL surface area Packages Miller SL DBCsDBFs Butler et al. 2011
  27. 27. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  28. 28. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data Lloyd et al. 2012
  29. 29. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data
  30. 30. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data - database Yellow pins – ODP/DSDP Green pins – Land-based localities
  31. 31. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – sp.:genus Lloyd et al. 2012
  32. 32. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – sp.:genus Species:Genus N Sites N Authors Lloyd et al. 2012
  33. 33. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sp.:genusRarefied with respect to N localities Rarefied with respect to N taxonomists Lloyd et al. 2012
  34. 34. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data vs.
  35. 35. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – species Lloyd et al. 2012
  36. 36. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – sampling Lloyd et al. 2012
  37. 37. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – correlation richness rho = 0.02 richness sampling samplingrho = 0.40 rho = 0.48 Lloyd et al. 2012
  38. 38. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – subsampling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
  39. 39. Coccolithophores–early curvesCollating the data – modeling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
  40. 40. Fishes the data –early curvesCollating Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
  41. 41. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating old curves Agassiz 1843
  42. 42. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating old curves Thomson 1977
  43. 43. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  44. 44. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 R^2 = 0.74 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 R^2 = 0.91 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  45. 45. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating global curves Agassiz 1843 R^2 = -0.21 Carroll 1988 R^2 = -0.15 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  46. 46. Fishes - database–early curvesCollating the data Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  47. 47. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating collector curve Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  48. 48. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating grids sampled 1 2 3 40.5-degree net Plot localities Identify grids Count grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  49. 49. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating raw diversity Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  50. 50. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating proxies Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  51. 51. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating correlations Formations rho = 0.64 rho = 0.71 Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  52. 52. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating multivariate modeling Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  53. 53. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating subsampling Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  54. 54. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating modeling Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  55. 55. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating cartilage vs. bone Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  56. 56. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating cartilage vs. bone rho = 0.83 rho = 0.44Formations rho = 0.53 rho = 0.20Localities rho = 0.56 rho = 0.21Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
  57. 57. Conclusions data –early curvesCollating the ? Sampling bias Sampling bias Common cause
  58. 58. Acknowledgements Collating the data –early curves Michael Steve Katie Matt Dave Rachel Benton Brusatte Davis Friedman Hone JenningsDavide Paul Marcello Manabu Andrew James JeremyPisani Pearson Ruta Sakamot Smith Tarver Young o
  59. 59. Fishes – the data –early curvesCollating bone vs. cartilage Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

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