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5. project activity and risk planning


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5. project activity and risk planning

  1. 1. Econ106 Lecture-Discussion No. 5
  2. 2. What We’ve Learned About So Far… Introduction and Context  Projects in contemporary organizations Project Initiation Strategic management and project selection  The project manager  Managing conflicts and the art of negotiation  The project in the organizational structure
  3. 3. Next • Project Planning – Project activity and risk planning – Budgeting: estimating costs and risks – Scheduling – Resource allocation • Project Execution – Monitoring and information system – Project control – Project auditing • Project Termination
  4. 4. “It is almost always cheaper, faster and easier to do things right the first time than to redo them.” – Meredith and Mantel
  5. 5. Planning • Primary purpose and implications – to establish a set of directions in sufficient detail to tell the project team exactly what must be done, when it must be done, what resources will be required to produce the deliverables of the project successfully, and when each resource will be needed • • Deliverables (or scope, specifications, objectives) are more than mere descriptions of the goods and/or services we promise to deliver to the client at a quality level that will meet their expectations Also includes time and cost required to complete the project to the client’s satisfaction
  6. 6. Planning (continued) • Other purposes/requirements and implications – The plan must be designed in such a way that the project outcome also meets the objectives, both direct and ancillary, of the parent organization, as reflected by the project portfolio or other strategic selection process used to approve the project. – The plan must include allowances for risk and features that allow it to be adaptive, it is always carried out in an environment of uncertainty. – The plan must contain methods to ensure its integrity, e.g. means of controlling the work it prescribes. – The plan must include any constraints on activities and input materials prescribed by law and society.
  7. 7. Project Launch Meeting • It is crucial that the project’s objectives be clearly tied to the overall (vision and) mission, goals and strategy of the organization, such as might be reflected in the project portfolio process. • In the project charter, senior management should delineate the firm’s intent in undertaking the project, outline the scope of the project, and describe how the project’s desired results reinforce the organization’s goals. • It is also vital that a senior manager call and be present at the project launch meeting, an initial coordinating meeting, as a visible symbol of top management’s commitment to the project.
  8. 8. • The success of the project launch meeting is absolutely dependent on the existence of a well-defined set of objectives. – Unless all parties to the planning process have a clear understanding of precisely what it is the project is expected to deliver, planning is sure to be inadequate or misguided • Other important matters addressed in a project launch meeting: – Review of major risks facing the project (usually focusing on market reaction to a new process/product, technical feasibility of an innovation) and starting of risk management plan in further identification of risks – Formulation of project’s risk management group and the initial risk management plan – Beware of going beyond the most aggregated level of plans; priority importance is to clarify purposes, direction and concerns of those to be involved/affected
  9. 9. • Whatever the process of the project launch meeting, the outcome must be that: – Technical scope is established (though may not yet be “cast in concrete”); – Basic areas of performance responsibility are accepted by the participants; – Any tentative delivery dates or budgets set by the parent organization are clearly noted; and – A risk management group is created; tasked to develop a risk management plan that includes proposed methodologies for managing risk, the group’s budget, schedule, criteria for dealing with the risk, and required reports; also communication flows
  10. 10. • The PM generally takes responsibility for gathering the necessary approvals and assuring that any changes incorporated into the plan at higher levels (including the client) are communicated to, and approved by, the units that have already signed off on the plan. – Violation of this procedure is considered a betrayal of trust. • The final, approved result of this procedure is the project plan, also known as the baseline plan. • When the planning phase of the project is completed, it is valuable to hold one additional meeting, a postplanning review. Ideally chaired by an experience PM not connected with the project, to make sure that all necessary elements of the project plan have been properly developed and communicated.
  11. 11. • The various parts of the project plan, including the risk management plan, are then scrutinized by the group and combined into a composite project plan. • The composite project plan, still not completely firm, is approved by each participating group, by the project manager, and then by senior organizational management. Each subsequent approval hardens the plan somewhat, and when senior management has endorsed it, any further changes in the project’s scope must be made by processing a change order, or an informal written memoranda if the project is not large or complex. – The main point is that no significant changes are made, without written notice, following top management’s approval. “Significant” depends on the specific situation and the people involved.
  12. 12. “Given the project charter, approvals really amount to a series of authorizations.” – Meredith and Mantel
  13. 13. Project Charter Elements Purpose 1. A short summary directed to top management and those unfamiliar with the project Contains a statement of the general goals of the project and a brief explanation of their relationship to the firm’s objectives • • • The Business Case: market opportunities, profit potentials, needs of the organization, customer requests for proposals, technological advancement opportunities and regulatory, environmental, and social considerations
  14. 14. 2. Objectives A more detailed statement of the general goals of the project, what constitutes success , and how the project will be terminated – • Includes profit and competitive aims from The Business Case as well as technical goals 3. Overview • This section describes both the managerial and technical approaches to the work. • • Managerial approach takes note of any deviation from routine procedure– e.g. use of subcontractors Technical approach describes the relationship of the project to available technologies – e.g. project is an extension of work done by the company from an earlier project
  15. 15. 4. Schedules • Outlines the various schedules and lists all milestone events and/or phase-gates • Each summary (major) task is listed, with the estimated time obtained from those who will do the work.  The projected baselines schedule is constructed from these inputs. The responsible person or department head should sign off on the final, agreed-on schedule.
  16. 16. Resources 5. 3 primary aspects: budget, contractual items, and cost monitoring and control procedures • • • • Budget – both capital and expense requirements are detailed by task, with one-time costs separated from recurring project costs Contractual items – complete list and description (e.g. customer-supplied resources, liaison arrangements, project review and cancellation procedures, proprietary requirements, purchasing/procurement contracts, specific management agreements, technical deliverables and their specifications, delivery schedules, and a specific procedure for changing any of these) Cost monitoring and control procedures – in addition to usual routine elements, must also include any special resource requirements for the project such as special machines, test equipment, laboratory usage or construction, logistics, field facilities, and special materials
  17. 17. 6. Personnel • Lists the expected personnel requirements of the project, especially the project manager and the sponsor/approver of the project • In addition, list any special skill requirements, training needed, possible recruiting problems, legal or policy restrictions on work force composition, and security clearances • Time-phase personnel needs to the project schedule; personnel, schedule and resources sections can be cross-checked with one another to ensure consistency
  18. 18. 7. Risk Management Plans • Covers potential problems as well as potential lucky breaks that could affect the project • Plans to deal with favorable or unfavorable contingencies 7. Evaluation Methods • Against standards and methods established at project’s inception • Contains a brief description of the procedures to be followed in the monitoring, collecting, storing, auditing and evaluating the project, as well as postproject (“lessons learned”) evaluation following project termination
  19. 19. The Project Plan • Usually constructed by: 1. Listing the sequence of activities required to carry the project from start to completion (according to project life cycle). 2. Each activity/segment is made up of further activities/specific tasks and milestones/significant events. 3. As the project passes through each of the segments, it is subjected to a series of “quality gates” (aka “phase gates”, “toll gates”, etc.) that must be successfully passed before proceeding to the next segment. • Note that the planning process must pass through the quality gates as well as the physical output of the project itself.
  20. 20. The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) A description of all the tasks to complete a project, organized by some consistent perspective and containing a variety of information needed for that perspective
  21. 21. Sample Form 1 Activity Plan Deliverables Measure(s) of Accomplishment Key constraints and assumptions Tasks Estimated Resources Immediate Predecessor Tasks Estimated Time Duration Assigned To
  22. 22. Sample Form 2
  23. 23. Sample Form3 Career Day Steps 1. Contact Organization a. Print forms, letters b. Contact organizations c. Collect display information… 2. Publicity and Promotion Responsibili ty Time (Weeks ) Precede d by Resource Assigned s to
  24. 24. Sample Form 4 OBJECTIVE: Merger of Ajax Hardware into Instat Corp. Steps Due Date Responsibility Precedent 1. Advise Ajax mgt. of changes Dec. 15, 2012 Jose Reyes - 2. Begin preparing Instat sales dept. to sell Ajax Consumer Division products effective 1/1/13 Dec. 15 Jose Reyes Paula Sanson 1
  25. 25. Sample Form 5: RACI Matrix* Activity Responsible Individuals Initiate Action Work with Clear Action with 1. Distribution System and Its Administration a. Recommend distribution system to be used Marketing officers A, B, C product line managers Management committee Agency director VP 2. Compensation… *RACI – Responsible,Accountable, Consult,Inform Sr. VP Marketing
  26. 26. Interface Coordination Through Integration Management Integration Management – managing the problems that tend to occur between departments and disciplines, rather than within individual departments The importance of clear communication flows
  27. 27. Sample 1: 12th YEC Registration Workflow
  28. 28. Sample 2: 12th YEC Sponsorships Payments Flow
  29. 29. Risk Management  Risk Management and Planning – deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for a project  Risk Identification – determining which risks might affect the project and documenting their characteristics  Qualitative Risk Analysis – performing a qualitative analysis of risks and conditions to prioritize their impacts on project objectives  Quantitative Risk Analysis – estimating the probability and consequences of risks and hence the implications for project objectives  Risk Management Register – an up-to-date data register of risk environments, assumptions, identified risks and categories, risk estimates, minutes of meetings and reports, actual outcomes of identified risks