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Gonçalo Nascimento Rodrigues
goncalonr@gmail.com
www.outofthebox.com.pt
out-of-the-boxthinking.blogspot.com
Family Office in Portugal
CONFERENCE
Real Estate Investments
2
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Security
Real
Assets
Increasing
value
Ability to
leverage
Real Estate Investments
Stability
over the
long term
3
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Real Estate Investments
4
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Real Estate Investments
5
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Real Estate Investments
Portugal House Price Index
6
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Presentation Framework
1
2
3
How/Why invest in Real Estate?
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
Invest in Portugal?
7
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
How/Why invest in Real Estate?
 Drivers:
 Diversification;
 Tax Efficiency;
 Hedging;
 Risk / Return optimization.
1
8
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
How/Why invest in Real Estate?
 Direct investments – commercial real estate, development;
 Indirect investments – acquiring units from investment vehicles.
1
9
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
How/Why invest in Real Estate?
 Investment Vehicles
 Real Estate Funds;
 Real Estate Investment Trusts;
 Sicav, Sicaf;
 Other type of vehicles, more complex structures.
1
10
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
How/Why invest in Real Estate?
 Family Offices tend to invest:
 Directly;
 In income producing properties;
 Core and opportunistic investments;
 Low leverage;
 Long term positions;
 Focus on fundamentals:
 Eye on location;
 “Quality” of the tenant;
 Rental contract length.
 Properties with higher yields.
1
11
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Commercial Real Estate Investment near all-time high
 Investments, nowadays, are financially driven;
 Lack of attention to fundamentals.
2
12
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Residential prices and sales climbing
 ARI gave an important boost to the market;
 Credit still scarce and expensive.
2
13
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Commercial Real Estate Investment growing
Source: C&W
2
14
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Office rents at all-time low
Source: Workx
2
15
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Prime Yields at all-time low
4,00%
5,00%
6,00%
7,00%
8,00%
9,00%
10,00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
Offices Logistics Shopping Centre Retail Hihgstreet
Source: B. Prime, CBRE
2
16
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
Source: Out of the Box
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Rents vs. Investment*
Average Rents Index CommercialREInvestment Index
*Regards to the Lisbon office market
 Disruption between rents and investment, or, fundamentals and
financial drivers
2
17
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
-4,0%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Commercial RE Investment and yield spread vs. OT
Investment Spread
 How yields affect real estate investments
2
Source: Out of the Box
18
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Potential upside through rental growth
2
19
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Effects on prime rent through yield variation
18,0
19,5
21,0
22,5
24,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0
22,0
24,0
26,0
6% 6,50% 7% 7,50% 8%
€/sq.mt.
Prime Yield
2
20
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Residential prices and sales recovering
2
Source: Statistics Portugal
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
75,00
80,00
85,00
90,00
95,00
100,00
105,00
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
4Q2012
1Q2013
2Q2013
3Q2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
Portugal Residential Index
Prices Sales
21
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Golden Visas (ARI’s) gave an important boost
2
494
1 526
443
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2012 2013 2014 2015
Nº of Golden Visas Granted
Source: SEF
2
22
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Golden Visas (ARI’s) on a slow move
Source: SEF
1,154
1,208
1,253
1,301 1,305
1,325 1,33
1,35
1,05
1,1
1,15
1,2
1,25
1,3
1,35
1,4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Amount invested in RE through ARI's (€ Bll)
2
23
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Housing loans still scarce and expensive
Source: Bank of Portugal
2
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
jan/04
jun/04
nov/04
abr/05
set/05
fev/06
jul/06
dez/06
mai/07
out/07
mar/08
ago/08
jan/09
jun/09
nov/09
abr/10
set/10
fev/11
jul/11
dez/11
mai/12
out/12
mar/13
ago/13
jan/14
jun/14
nov/14
abr/15
Montlhy housing loans (€ Million)
24
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
The Real Estate Market in Portugal
 Housing loans still scarce and expensive
Source: Statistics Portugal
2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
mar/08
jul/08
nov/08
mar/09
jul/09
nov/09
mar/10
jul/10
nov/10
mar/11
jul/11
nov/11
mar/12
jul/12
nov/12
mar/13
jul/13
nov/13
mar/14
jul/14
nov/14
mar/15
BasisPoins
Average Spread Housing Loans
25
Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal
Family Offices Real Estate Investments
Invest in Portugal?3
Commercial
Real Estate
Residential
Hotels /
Tourism
“Alternative”
Investments
• Offices / High street retail;
• Some logistic operations;
• Corporate Sale & Leaseback;
• Focus on fundamentals;
• Eye on rents;
• Prime locations.
• Buy-to-let Lisbon outskirts;
• High-yield.
• 4 and 5 star Hotels in
Lisbon and Oporto.
• Student Accommodation;
• Senior Living.
Thank You!
Family Office in Portugal
CONFERENCE
Gonçalo Nascimento Rodrigues
goncalonr@gmail.com
www.outofthebox.com.pt
out-of-the-boxthinking.blogspot.com

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Real Estate Investments

  • 2. 2 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Security Real Assets Increasing value Ability to leverage Real Estate Investments Stability over the long term
  • 3. 3 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Real Estate Investments
  • 4. 4 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Real Estate Investments
  • 5. 5 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Real Estate Investments Portugal House Price Index
  • 6. 6 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Presentation Framework 1 2 3 How/Why invest in Real Estate? The Real Estate Market in Portugal Invest in Portugal?
  • 7. 7 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments How/Why invest in Real Estate?  Drivers:  Diversification;  Tax Efficiency;  Hedging;  Risk / Return optimization. 1
  • 8. 8 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments How/Why invest in Real Estate?  Direct investments – commercial real estate, development;  Indirect investments – acquiring units from investment vehicles. 1
  • 9. 9 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments How/Why invest in Real Estate?  Investment Vehicles  Real Estate Funds;  Real Estate Investment Trusts;  Sicav, Sicaf;  Other type of vehicles, more complex structures. 1
  • 10. 10 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments How/Why invest in Real Estate?  Family Offices tend to invest:  Directly;  In income producing properties;  Core and opportunistic investments;  Low leverage;  Long term positions;  Focus on fundamentals:  Eye on location;  “Quality” of the tenant;  Rental contract length.  Properties with higher yields. 1
  • 11. 11 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Commercial Real Estate Investment near all-time high  Investments, nowadays, are financially driven;  Lack of attention to fundamentals. 2
  • 12. 12 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Residential prices and sales climbing  ARI gave an important boost to the market;  Credit still scarce and expensive. 2
  • 13. 13 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Commercial Real Estate Investment growing Source: C&W 2
  • 14. 14 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Office rents at all-time low Source: Workx 2
  • 15. 15 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Prime Yields at all-time low 4,00% 5,00% 6,00% 7,00% 8,00% 9,00% 10,00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015 Offices Logistics Shopping Centre Retail Hihgstreet Source: B. Prime, CBRE 2
  • 16. 16 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal Source: Out of the Box 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rents vs. Investment* Average Rents Index CommercialREInvestment Index *Regards to the Lisbon office market  Disruption between rents and investment, or, fundamentals and financial drivers 2
  • 17. 17 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal -4,0% -3,0% -2,0% -1,0% 0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Commercial RE Investment and yield spread vs. OT Investment Spread  How yields affect real estate investments 2 Source: Out of the Box
  • 18. 18 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Potential upside through rental growth 2
  • 19. 19 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Effects on prime rent through yield variation 18,0 19,5 21,0 22,5 24,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 22,0 24,0 26,0 6% 6,50% 7% 7,50% 8% €/sq.mt. Prime Yield 2
  • 20. 20 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Residential prices and sales recovering 2 Source: Statistics Portugal 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 75,00 80,00 85,00 90,00 95,00 100,00 105,00 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q2015 Portugal Residential Index Prices Sales
  • 21. 21 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Golden Visas (ARI’s) gave an important boost 2 494 1 526 443 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nº of Golden Visas Granted Source: SEF 2
  • 22. 22 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Golden Visas (ARI’s) on a slow move Source: SEF 1,154 1,208 1,253 1,301 1,305 1,325 1,33 1,35 1,05 1,1 1,15 1,2 1,25 1,3 1,35 1,4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Amount invested in RE through ARI's (€ Bll) 2
  • 23. 23 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Housing loans still scarce and expensive Source: Bank of Portugal 2 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2 000 jan/04 jun/04 nov/04 abr/05 set/05 fev/06 jul/06 dez/06 mai/07 out/07 mar/08 ago/08 jan/09 jun/09 nov/09 abr/10 set/10 fev/11 jul/11 dez/11 mai/12 out/12 mar/13 ago/13 jan/14 jun/14 nov/14 abr/15 Montlhy housing loans (€ Million)
  • 24. 24 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments The Real Estate Market in Portugal  Housing loans still scarce and expensive Source: Statistics Portugal 2 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 mar/08 jul/08 nov/08 mar/09 jul/09 nov/09 mar/10 jul/10 nov/10 mar/11 jul/11 nov/11 mar/12 jul/12 nov/12 mar/13 jul/13 nov/13 mar/14 jul/14 nov/14 mar/15 BasisPoins Average Spread Housing Loans
  • 25. 25 Family Office in Portugal Conference 24ᵗʰ September 2015 Four Seasons Hotel Ritz , Lisbon, Portugal Family Offices Real Estate Investments Invest in Portugal?3 Commercial Real Estate Residential Hotels / Tourism “Alternative” Investments • Offices / High street retail; • Some logistic operations; • Corporate Sale & Leaseback; • Focus on fundamentals; • Eye on rents; • Prime locations. • Buy-to-let Lisbon outskirts; • High-yield. • 4 and 5 star Hotels in Lisbon and Oporto. • Student Accommodation; • Senior Living.
  • 26. Thank You! Family Office in Portugal CONFERENCE Gonçalo Nascimento Rodrigues goncalonr@gmail.com www.outofthebox.com.pt out-of-the-boxthinking.blogspot.com