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2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Regions – Hazards – People
Ramon Gilsanz, SE, F.SEI
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Center for International Earth
Science Information Net...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population Distribution and Density
Center for Interna...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population
Historic Growth
Population Reference Bureau...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population
Development
Population Reference Bureau (in...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population
Urban vs. Rural
UN Population Division
0
1
...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Tectonic Plates
and Fault Lines
Yeats, R. “Earthquake ...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Geophysical Hazard
Munich RE, NATHAN 2014
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population Distribution and Density
Center for Interna...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
World Mining
InfoMine Inc.
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population Distribution and Density
Center for Interna...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Risk = Hazard x Consequence Cost
Vulnerability:
World ...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Risk = Exposure x Vulnerability
UNU-EHS World Risk Rep...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Exposure
UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
Vulnerability:...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Susceptibility
UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
Vulnerab...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Coping
UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
Vulnerability:
W...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Adaptation
UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
Vulnerabilit...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Vulnerability: World Risk Index
UNU-EHS World Risk Rep...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Population Distribution and Density
Center for Interna...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Geophysical Loss Assessment (1980-2013)
Munich RE, Nat...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Other Natural Disasters (2014)
Munich RE, NatCatSERVIC...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Global Loss Events
1980 – 2014
(by Hazard)
Munich RE, ...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Global Loss Events
1980 – 2014
(by Income Group)
Munic...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
World’s investment
in disaster prevention
=
1% world’s...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
FEMA Mitigation Grants
Every dollar spent on preventio...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Odds of having 2500 year
event in 200 years
• Probabil...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Source: USGS
Magnitude
Change
Ground Motion
Change Ene...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Haiti – Chile
Earthquakes
Lethality Comparison
Haitian...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Goal
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
What can we do
to reduce risk?
• Become personally awa...
2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure
Thank you
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Regions - Hazards - People

The world’s population is growing, with increasing proportions locating to dense urban environments. This presentation compares population density and economies of the world’s largest cities with their exposure to natural disasters. We assess the relationship between vulnerability and urbanization, and make recommendations for strategic partnerships for greater investment in pre-disaster preventive measures as opposed to post-disaster recovery.

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Regions - Hazards - People

  1. 1. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Regions – Hazards – People Ramon Gilsanz, SE, F.SEI
  2. 2. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Center for International Earth Science Information Network Information Resources Munich Reinsurance
  3. 3. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Population Distribution and Density Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University)
  4. 4. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Population Historic Growth Population Reference Bureau (in Yeats) Sanitation
  5. 5. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Population Development Population Reference Bureau (in Yeats)
  6. 6. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Population Urban vs. Rural UN Population Division 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 WorldPopulation(inBillions) Rural Population Urban Population Total Population
  7. 7. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Tectonic Plates and Fault Lines Yeats, R. “Earthquake Time Bombs”
  8. 8. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Geophysical Hazard Munich RE, NATHAN 2014
  9. 9. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Population Distribution and Density Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University) & Munich RE, NATHAN 2014 Geophysical Hazard
  10. 10. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure World Mining InfoMine Inc.
  11. 11. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Population Distribution and Density Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University), Munich RE, NATHAN 2014 & InfoMine Inc. World Mining Geophysical Hazard
  12. 12. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Risk = Hazard x Consequence Cost Vulnerability: World Risk Index Prof. Michael Fardis said: “don’t consider the probability” (Black Swan) Prof. I. Towhata said: “don’t believe in the cost-benefit analysis”
  13. 13. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Risk = Exposure x Vulnerability UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014 Vulnerability: World Risk Index ++x Exposure to Natural Hazards Susceptibility Likelihood of Suffering Harm Coping Capacity to Reduce Negative Impacts Adaptation Capacity for Long-Term Change Measures a country’s exposure, resiliency, response to an event, and preparedness for future events
  14. 14. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Exposure UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014 Vulnerability: World Risk Index ++x Exposure to Natural Hazards Susceptibility Likelihood of Suffering Harm Coping Capacity to Reduce Negative Impacts Adaptation Capacity for Long-Term Change • Earthquakes • Storms • Floods • Droughts • Sea level rise
  15. 15. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Susceptibility UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014 Vulnerability: World Risk Index ++x Exposure to Natural Hazards Susceptibility Likelihood of Suffering Harm Coping Capacity to Reduce Negative Impacts Adaptation Capacity for Long-Term Change • Health and Sanitation • Quality of Construction (Housing / Slums) • Nutrition • Poverty • Economy (GDP)
  16. 16. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Coping UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014 Vulnerability: World Risk Index ++x Exposure to Natural Hazards Susceptibility Likelihood of Suffering Harm Coping Capacity to Reduce Negative Impacts Adaptation Capacity for Long-Term Change • Good Governance • Disaster Preparedness • Medical Services • Social & Physical Networks • Insurance
  17. 17. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Adaptation UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014 Vulnerability: World Risk Index ++x Exposure to Natural Hazards Susceptibility Likelihood of Suffering Harm Coping Capacity to Reduce Negative Impacts Adaptation Capacity for Long-Term Change • Education • Gender Equity • Environmental Regulation • Building Codes & Strategies • Investment
  18. 18. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Vulnerability: World Risk Index UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014
  19. 19. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Population Distribution and Density Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University) & UNU-EHS World Risk Report 2014 Vulnerability: World Risk Index
  20. 20. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Geophysical Loss Assessment (1980-2013) Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE 2014
  21. 21. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Other Natural Disasters (2014) Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE 2015
  22. 22. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Global Loss Events 1980 – 2014 (by Hazard) Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE 21,700 Loss events 1,740,000 Fatalities Overall losses US$ 4,200bn Insured losses US$ 1,100bn Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) 22% 40% 25% 13% 11% 71% 10% 8% 12% 41% 36% 11% 51% 25% 13% 10%
  23. 23. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Global Loss Events 1980 – 2014 (by Income Group) Munich RE, NatCatSERVICE 21,700 Loss events 1,740,000 Fatalities Overall losses US$ 4,200bn Insured losses US$ 1,100bn High income GNI > US$12,745 (per capita) High/middle income GNI US$4,126 - 12,745 (per capita) Low/middle income GNI US$1,046 - 4,125 (per capita) Low income GNI < US$1,045 (per capita) 44% 17% 23% 16% 8% 8% 33% 51% 61% 12% 16% 11% 92% 5% 2% 1%
  24. 24. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure World’s investment in disaster prevention = 1% world’s investment in disaster response and recovery GeoHazards International Prevention and Response
  25. 25. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure FEMA Mitigation Grants Every dollar spent on prevention saves more in disaster losses • Earthquakes 1.4 : 1 • Wind 4.7 : 1 • Flood 5.1 : 1 ASCE Natural Hazards Review Prevention and Response
  26. 26. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Odds of having 2500 year event in 200 years • Probability of occurring in any given year: 1/2475 = 0.000404 (USGS) • Probability of not occurring in any given year (1 – 0.000404 = 0.9996) • Probability of not occurring in 200 years. 0.9996^200 = 0.922 (92.2%) • Probability of occurring in 200 years (100% - 92.2% = 7.8%)
  27. 27. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Source: USGS Magnitude Change Ground Motion Change Energy Change (Displacement) 2 100 times 1,000 times 1 10.0 times 32 times 0.5 3.2 times 5.5 times 0.3 2.0 times 3 times 0.1 1.3 times 1.4 times Source: CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database (via earthquake-report.com) Japan Chile Ecuador Haiti US US New Zealand Earthquake: Tohoku Maule Pedernales Port au Prince Loma Prieta Northridge Christchurch 2011 2010 2016 2010 1989 1994 2011 Magnitude: M 9.0 M 8.8 M 7.8 M 7.0 M 6.9 M 6.7 M 6.3 Intensity: IX (Violent) IX (Violent) VIII (Severe) X (Extreme) IX (Violent) IX (Violent) X (Extreme) 15,894 Dead 525 Dead 663 Dead 160-200K Dead 63 Dead 57 Dead 177 Dead Life Loss: 6,152 Injured 28,775 Injured (est.) 3,757 Injured 8,700 Injured 2,164 Injured 2,562 Missing 25 Missing 9 Missing 4 Missing Economic Loss: $122-$235 Billion $30 Billion $3 Billion $2.3 Billion $5.6-$6 Billion $13-$40 Billion $15-$20 Billion Earthquake Losses
  28. 28. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Haiti – Chile Earthquakes Lethality Comparison Haitian Earthquake Chilean Earthquake 11% “strongly shaken” died 0.1% “strongly shaken” died GeoHazards International
  29. 29. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Goal
  30. 30. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure What can we do to reduce risk? • Become personally aware • Advise the profession • Inform the public • Create political pressure In the meantime… Goal
  31. 31. 2016 International Conference on Natural Hazards and Infrastructure Thank you

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