HO05 Ethernet Passive Optical Networks3 Decades of “Fiber-To-The-Home” Looking back, Where should we go? Greg Evans FlashPoint Technology, Inc. Wednesday September 6th, 2006
Year: 1987Why do we need Fiber To The Home? “The Telcos are the fiber cable customer.” “The long haul transport fiber market is saturated.” “We need to develop a residential fiber market.”
Year: 1988 Plain OldWhy not Fiber To The Home? Telephone Service Reliability must be 99.997% Cost must be lower than POTS Regulatory issues POTS vs. CATV Power for lifeline POTS services CAble TeleVision
Year: 1989Why Passive Optical Network (PON)? Fewer Lasers No active components in plant Lower deployment & maintenance costs Better overall reliability
Year: 1990 Major Telco FTTx POTS Trial 1991 SDV added to Trial (64 ch)SwitchedDigitalVideo 1993 Company IPO $18/sh -> $52/sh 1995 VDT Deployed in NJ (385 ch) Video Dial Tone 1999 Company abandons FTTx 2001 Company liquidates
Year: 1994 - 1998 Asymmetric Digital What went wrong ? Subscriber Line ADSL emergedUserGenerated Video content did not emergeContent Internet – UGC did emerge Fiber bandwidth no longer needed
Year: 1998 - 2003 Rise and fall of the “dot.com” Rise and fall of Telco broadband optimismFor North America: Cable broadband became “king” DSL took a second seat Still no FTTH “killer app”
Year: 2005 Subscribers1 Broadband FTTH Asia2 & Australia3 83.0M 4.6M Europe3 56.5M 680k North America4 50.2M 540k Caribbean & Latin America3 5.6M trials only1 RHK, Corning, Point Topic, Render Vanderslice (October 2005)2 Asian statistics exclude Russia and the Middle East3 Primarily DSL (Asia, Australia, Europe, Caribbean, & Latin America4 Primarily Cable Modem with DSL for new adds (North America)
Year: 2006 What is different now? Economics is driving FTTH not technology.Video Maybe the “killer app” has arrivedVoiceData Triple Play (Convergence)
FTTH Worldwide Forecasts1 Year 2005 ~6M Year 2007 ~13M Year 2009 ~23M Year 2011 ~64M Country2 Subscribers Penetration Architecture Japan 31.3M 62.6% EPON China 12.0M 3.3% EPON United States 10.3M 9.1% GPON/BPON South Korea 7.6M 40.0% EPON Taiwan 3.2M 46.4% EPON1 Corning, In-Stat, Point Topic, Gartner2 FTTH Worldwide Market & Technology Forecast, 2006-2011: http://img.lightreading.com/heavyreading/pdf/hr20060616_fig1_full.gif
Looking Back at3 Decades of Progress 6 Million SubscribersMax Downstream (Mb/s) 1200 1250 2500 1250Max Upstream (Mb/s) 8 622 2500 1250Max PON splits (#) 8 32 64 16
2005 2010 2015Economics TechnologyA challenge to the Research Community Don’t think how are we going to make FTTH happen. Think, what are we going to do after FTTH happens!!!
What are the enabling technologies? Fiber Capacity IP over WDM Lambda Switching Control Planes IPv6 -> Lambda Addressing
The key FTTH research question for 1987, today, & tomorrow ... Evolution or Revolution? What is the PON of the Future?