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what are we trading
away?
glyn moody
  
the new "trade" deals
 lack of progress of Doha round of
WTO talks (2001)
 actually emerging economies trying
to corr...
  
TPP
 TPP - Trans-Pacific Partnership
agreement
 started 2005 - Brunei, Chile, New
Zealand, and Singapore
 2008 - Aus...
  
TPP by numbers
 basic text is 6,194 pages long
 30 chapters; 48 annexes; "related
instruments" and "side chapters"
 ...
  
CETA
 Comprehensive Economic and Trade
Agreement
 between EU and Canada
 negotiations began May 2008,
"concluded" Au...
  
TTIP
 Transatlantic Trade and
Investment Partnership
 began June 2013
 between EU and US
 narrows plurilateral appr...
  
TTIP's benefits
 central justification is that
TTIP will boost EU and US
economies "for free"
 CEPR study predicts bo...
  
risks for EU agriculture
 European Parliament study (2014)
 "some EU sectors could face
serious competition"
 "disad...
  
risks for SME EU farms (I)
 Elżbieta Bieńkowska,Internal
Market, Industry,
Entrepreneurship and SMEs (2015)
 "SMEs mu...
  
risks for SME EU farms (II)
 small, family-run EU farms unable
to compete with US mega-farms
 higher costs from highe...
  
benefits for agriculture I
 study from US Department of
Agriculture (November 2015)
 "classic" TTIP trade agreement
...
  
benefits for agriculture II
 "new style" TTIP trade agreement
 US exports to EU +$9.6 billion
 EU exports to US +$2 ...
  
non-tariff barriers (NTBs)
 removal of NTBs central to TTIP's
claimed benefits
 CEPR study
 paid for by European Com...
  
NTBs = regulations
 different regulations in EU, US
 health, safety, environment,
labour, finance
 many of the key n...
  
EU regulations = EU culture
 codification of European farming
traditions
 cultural expressions of Europe
 the way we...
  
tackling NTBs
 levelling down – EU says no
 levelling up – US says no
 mutual recognition
 chemicals in cosmetics
...
  
regulatory chapter
 new regulatory acts must involve
 stakeholder consultations
 impact assessments
 Regulatory Co-...
  
ISDS
 investor-state dispute settlement
 secret tribunal of three lawyers
 no limits to awards, no appeals
 Philip ...
  
ISDS in EU
 127 ISDS cases brought against EU
countries since 1994; €30 billion
claims, €3.5 billion awards (67)
 TTI...
  
ISDS in Poland
 one of the worst hit by ISDS
cases
 party to more than 60 agreements
with ISDS provisions
 16 known ...
  
TTIP's locks and ratchets
 regulatory "harmonisation", ISDS
 locks and ratchets designed to
constrain a signatory
gov...
  
what are we trading away?
 trading local small-scale,
family-farm food production
 trading away EU-style agriculture
...
  
trading away ourselves
glyn.moody@gmail.com
@glynmoody on Twitter
@glynmoody on identi.ca
+glynmoody on Google+
opendot...
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Glyn Moody - Trade deals: what are we trading away?

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Trade deals are proliferating. The claim is they boost economies. The reality is rather different, and the costs - especially for those in the farming sector - are high. Too high to accept, in fact.

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Glyn Moody - Trade deals: what are we trading away?

  1. 1.    what are we trading away? glyn moody
  2. 2.    the new "trade" deals  lack of progress of Doha round of WTO talks (2001)  actually emerging economies trying to correct pro-Western bias of Uruguay round of WTO talks (1994)  Western countries – and companies – have taken new tack  replace multilateral consensus by plurilateral "club" agreements  TPP, CETA, TTIP, (TISA)
  3. 3.    TPP  TPP - Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement  started 2005 - Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore  2008 - Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, the United States, and Vietnam joined  negotiations concluded 5 October 2015  2016 battle over ratification
  4. 4.    TPP by numbers  basic text is 6,194 pages long  30 chapters; 48 annexes; "related instruments" and "side chapters"  negotiated in secret, so first time public saw complete text 5 November 2015  key feature of new "trade" deals  secret while negotiated  set in stone once released  effectively, no public input
  5. 5.    CETA  Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement  between EU and Canada  negotiations began May 2008, "concluded" August 2014  new Canadian government means discussions still continuing  *tiny* benefits: after 7 years, 0.08% boost to EU GDP, 0.77% to Canadian GDP (EU-CA study, 2007)
  6. 6.    TTIP  Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership  began June 2013  between EU and US  narrows plurilateral approach to bilateral agreement  complements TPP  goes beyond TPP, moves even further from classic trade deals
  7. 7.    TTIP's benefits  central justification is that TTIP will boost EU and US economies "for free"  CEPR study predicts boost of €119 billion (EU), €95 billion (US)  "ambitious scenario"  GDP boost in 2027, after 10 years  actually 0.05% extra GDP/year  as with CETA, close to zero  *no* estimate of costs or risks
  8. 8.    risks for EU agriculture  European Parliament study (2014)  "some EU sectors could face serious competition"  "disadvantaged by the extra costs involved in complying with EU regulations"  "EU constraints on the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), on pesticide use, and on food safety measures in the meat sector"
  9. 9.    risks for SME EU farms (I)  Elżbieta Bieńkowska,Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (2015)  "SMEs must be at the heart of TTIP"  no estimate of risks for SMEs  German Association of Green Business report (2016)  "Risks for small and medium enterprises in the Agriculture and Food Industry"
  10. 10.    risks for SME EU farms (II)  small, family-run EU farms unable to compete with US mega-farms  higher costs from higher animal welfare in EU  US use of EU-banned hormones (BST, ractopamine)  higher costs from lower pesticide use – US levels 500 times higher  widespread use of cheaper *patented* GMO crops in US
  11. 11.    benefits for agriculture I  study from US Department of Agriculture (November 2015)  "classic" TTIP trade agreement  US exports to EU +$5.5 billion  EU exports to US +$0.8 billion  global agriculture trade  US exports +2%, imports +1%  EU exports -0.25%, imports +0.5%
  12. 12.    benefits for agriculture II  "new style" TTIP trade agreement  US exports to EU +$9.6 billion  EU exports to US +$2 billion  global agriculture trade  US exports +4%, imports +2%  EU exports "decline", imports +1%  "new style" = removing "non- tariff barriers"
  13. 13.    non-tariff barriers (NTBs)  removal of NTBs central to TTIP's claimed benefits  CEPR study  paid for by European Commission  analysed GDP boost  20% of TTIP's claimed GDP boost comes from removing tariffs  existing tariffs 3% on average  80% comes from removing non- tariff barriers
  14. 14.    NTBs = regulations  different regulations in EU, US  health, safety, environment, labour, finance  many of the key non-tariff barriers are agricultural bans  BST growth hormones for beef  ractopamine in pigs  bans on GMOs  chlorine washing of chickens  US wants to remove all these
  15. 15.    EU regulations = EU culture  codification of European farming traditions  cultural expressions of Europe  the way we want to grow our food  welfare enhancing for EU citizens  we benefit from their existence  fruits of democracy  expressions of collective will  for TTIP: "trade irritants"
  16. 16.    tackling NTBs  levelling down – EU says no  levelling up – US says no  mutual recognition  chemicals in cosmetics  1300 ingredients banned in EU  11 ingredients banned in US  1289 chemicals banned in EU could be used in US products sold here  future convergence
  17. 17.    regulatory chapter  new regulatory acts must involve  stakeholder consultations  impact assessments  Regulatory Co-operation Body  important new opportunities for lobbying and legal challenges  effectively a ratchet on regulations – weakening them  gives big companies huge power to shape rules of business & society
  18. 18.    ISDS  investor-state dispute settlement  secret tribunal of three lawyers  no limits to awards, no appeals  Philip Morris sued Australia and lost, still suing Uruguay, over tobacco reduction measures  Eli Lilly suing Canada over drug patent requirements  chilling effect on new legislation
  19. 19.    ISDS in EU  127 ISDS cases brought against EU countries since 1994; €30 billion claims, €3.5 billion awards (67)  TTIP: 20,000 US companies (50,000 subsidiaries) able to sue EU+MS  ISDS covers  all *existing* investments  copyright and patents (ratchet)  so bad, EU proposing Investment Court System (ICS) to replace it
  20. 20.    ISDS in Poland  one of the worst hit by ISDS cases  party to more than 60 agreements with ISDS provisions  16 known cases filed against it  €12 billion sought  €2.2 billion paid out so far  among the most frequent target of US claims using 1990 BIT  1 year's notice to terminate
  21. 21.    TTIP's locks and ratchets  regulatory "harmonisation", ISDS  locks and ratchets designed to constrain a signatory government's future actions  force moves towards deregulation  only consider impact on companies  render public views irrelevant  not just undermining democracy, but *bypassing* it
  22. 22.    what are we trading away?  trading local small-scale, family-farm food production  trading away EU-style agriculture  trading away EU's internal market  USDA: "decrease in overall EU agricultural exports largely attributable to a reduction in intra-EU trade"  trading away European culture  trading away democracy
  23. 23.    trading away ourselves glyn.moody@gmail.com @glynmoody on Twitter @glynmoody on identi.ca +glynmoody on Google+ opendotdotdot.blogspot.com

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