http://www.investmentcontrarians.com/stock-market/hey-investor-sothebys-is-going-oncegoing-twice/1202/
If you happen to be one of the few who subscribes to the “trickle down” school of economics, things aren’t looking good. Some well-heeled investors, tired of the volatility of stocks and bonds and the shrinking value of the greenback, have turned to hard assets, like art, to protect their assets.
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Hey investor sotheby’s is going once going twice
1. http://www.investmentcontrarians.com/stock-market/hey-investor-sothebys-is-going-
oncegoing-twice/1202/
Hey Investor: Sotheby’s Is Going Once…
Going Twice…
By John Whitefoot for Investment Contrarians | Jan 8, 2013
If you happen to be one of the few who subscribes to the “trickle down” school of
economics, things aren’t looking good. Some well-heeled investors, tired of the volatility
of stocks and bonds and the shrinking value of the greenback, have turned to hard assets,
like art, to protect their assets.
The upper crust don’t necessarily collect art, so much as invest in it. Many even consider
art to be another hard asset class like stocks, bonds, commodities, or precious metals.
They may be onto something.
The Mei Moses All Art index, a leading indicator of art returns based mainly on paintings
sold in New York and London, climbed 22% in 2010 and 10.2% in 2011, seriously
outpacing the S&P 500’s total return. (Source: “S&P 500 Total Return,” YCharts, last
accessed January 7, 2013.)
In spite of the global recession, 2012 looks like it was another banner year for art auction
sales, with three of the major houses—Christie’s, Sotheby’s (NYSE/BID), and Phillips de
Pury’s—beating previous records.
Sotheby’s and Christie’s auctions in New York City took in over $1.4 billion in
combined sales. Almost $1.0 billion of it was raised in two evening sales of
contemporary art alone. (Source: “Sotheby’s and Christie’s Break Auction Records,”
ArtsEditor, December 15, 2012, last accessed January 7, 2013.)
That doesn’t mean investors in Sotheby’s—the lone, publicly traded art auction has been
seeing the same kinds of returns.
2. Copyright Lombardi Publishing, 2012;
Data source: Yahoo! Finance
After climbing steadily higher throughout the 1990s, Sotheby’s share price dropped in
early 2000, after the tech boom fizzled and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan commenced.
It rallied again when the broader markets strengthened, and then fell off a cliff in 2008
when the global markets tanked.
And, like before, it rebounded. But lately, it’s been stalling. In the face of ongoing
economic uncertainty in the U.S. and eurozone, coupled with the lingering effects of the
fiscal cliff and tensions in the Middle East, Sotheby’s has been in a holding pattern, while
art buyers and investors alike wait to see where the global economy is headed.
In fact, at no point in the last 20-plus years has Sotheby’s share price been in as long a
holding pattern as it is now.
Historically, art prices do not run or fall in step with the stock market per se; rather,
prices match changes in wealth creation and destruction. In 2008–2009, investors saw
their holdings wiped out. This was echoed in Sotheby’s share price.
Today, we’re not seeing a lot of wealth creation or damage. This, too, is reflected in
Sotheby’s flat-lining share price.
3. Why the record auction results? With fears of the “fiscal cliff,” a devalued currency,
rising inflation, projected anemic economic growth, and ongoing geopolitical tensions,
investors have been looking for hard assets to protect their wealth. And there are few
wealth generators like the world of fine art.
Unfortunately, with fewer strong pieces coming onto the market and wealth creation
nowhere in sight, the record prices set in 2012 likely won’t be replicated in 2013. And,
with economic and political uncertainty putting a dent in consumer confidence, I can’t
see Sotheby’s share price gaining steam anytime soon, either.
Current weak economic conditions mean art collectors are more cautious. Stagnating
incomes do not translate into increased spending and long-term growth. If the economy
continues to languish, it could be dark days for art collectors.
And investors.
Even though the international art market has been running full steam, Sotheby’s has been
struggling. And not for lack of trying. On February 28, the company said full-year 2011
revenue increased 7.4% year-over-year to $832 million, and was up 71.0% over fiscal
2009. Investors celebrated by sending Sotheby’s share price down 14.0%. (Source:
“Annual Report 2011,” Sotheby’s, February 28, 2011, last accessed January 7, 2013.)
That said, if Sotheby’s does take another precipitous plunge under $10.00, it could
provide penny stock investors with an interesting opportunity. As a bellwether for high-
end economic sentiment, Sotheby’s always seems to be one of the first to rebound.
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oncegoing-twice/1202/
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