Creating The Places Where Jobs Grow

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Creating and sustaining the places where jobs grow, essentially job infrastructure, is an important part of economic development strategy at both the community and asset level.

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Creating The Places Where Jobs Grow

  1. 1. METRO CORES:CREATING AND SUSTAINING THE PLACES WHERE JOBS GROWGregg Logan, Managing Director, January 25, 2011
  2. 2. METRO CORE ANALYTICS“CENTERS” AS KEY ASPECT OF JOB INFRASTRUCTURE  Economic development  “Job infrastructure: depends on many factors:   Employment Cores - Placemaking  Leadership •  Strengthening Existing Cores  Vision •  Planning for New Cores –  Greenfield  Education –  Infill and Redevelopment  Adaptability  Creating, sustaining the places where jobs grow RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  3. 3. METRO CORES AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Regions composed of a hierarchy of Cores, or “centers”   30% to 40% of jobs, including highest paying, locate primarily in these Cores o  The number, quality, characteristics of Cores in a region influences job growth   Anticipate where Cores are needed, facilitate (re)development o  Predictability: know the reasons they grow in specific locations, plan for it   Understand criteria for creating/sustaining quality job Cores   Provide the features, amenities, infrastructure required RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  4. 4. METRO CORE EXAMPLESREGIONAL JOB PLACES RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  5. 5. METRO CORES: REGIONAL JOB FOCAL POINTS   Activity centers   Large concentration of employees, especially the highest paying “export” oriented jobs   Tend to locate about five miles apart, near major transportation nodes   Understanding the number, composition, size, and location of Metro Cores in a region   Framework for understanding metropolitan growth trends enhancing planning for economic development RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  6. 6. METRO CORES: REGIONAL JOB FOCAL POINTS   Unique attributes distinguish metropolitan regions   Yet striking similarities in terms of development   “Rules” relative to their location, evolution   Consistent types of “Centers” or employment “Core’s” across regions   High correlation between number of Cores and total Jobs   On average 38% of jobs, especially highest paying, locate in these Cores RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  7. 7. TOTAL JOBS CORELATED TO NUMBER OF CORES Number of Employment Cores Relative to Total Employment Selected Metropolitan Areas Correlation: Statistically significant correlation= more More “centers” between number of centersjobs number of jobs and RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. SOURCE: RCLCO 6
  8. 8. NUMBER OF CENTERS AND NUMBER OF JOBSCORRELATION (WITH SOME ELASTICITY)  Number of jobs per Core surprisingly consistent  Metros with highest employment, more jobs per Core  Largest metro areas (in Jobs), often more mature areas, have o Larger big city downtown o (Older cities) better transportation network, grid  Jobs per core related to number of interstate intersections  Similar characteristics, predictability, can be planned for RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  9. 9. 6 TYPES OF JOB CORESSHARE SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS REGIONS CORE TYPE DESCRIPTION SAN DIEGO REGION’S CORES Urban Centers •  Cultural, financial, and often governmental centers Downtown San Diego •  Typically largest concentration of high-density office Catalytic Core •  Locations determined by individual actors, e.g. Torrey Pines/UTC/UCSD, governments, corporations, universities Miramar Air Station SeaWorldIndustrial Core •  Locate around major transportation, major freeways and Rancho Bernardo, Sorrento interstates, rail lines, airports, and seaports Valley, Kearney Mesa, Poway, Carlsbad, San Diego Airport, •  Competitively priced land San Diego Waterfront, Otay •  San Diego its R&D/Flex use more than warehousing/ Mesa Border distribution or manufacturingFavored Quarter •  Fans out from downtown in direction of dominant regional Carmel Valley, Mission Valley, growth parts of Torrey Pines/UTC/ Office Core UCSD •  Follows executive housing concentrations •  High-end office space often along the region’s principle interstateHistoric Satellite •  Regions grow incorporating smaller cities and towns that El Cajon, Escondido Cities/Towns were once free standing entities •  Older commercial stock, smaller employment base, but •  Can grow into more regionally important cores Retail Cores •  Retail cores lacking regional serving/office-oriented employment RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. 8
  10. 10. THE FAVORED QUARTERCORES GROW WHERE KEY INGREDIENTS EXIST    EXAMPLE: Favored quarter location of executive housing … where majority of office-oriented, higher paying jobs concentrate… RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. 9
  11. 11. SAN DIEGO: JOBS CONCENTRATE NEAR EXECUTIVE HOUSINGLABOR FORCE HOUSING IS TO THE SOUTH AND EASTDarker red = higher average Single-Family Home Sales PriceSan Diego County, California Employment Cores Greater than $600,000 $450,000 to $600,000 $300,000 to $450,000 $150,000 to $300,000 Less than $150,000 High quality, high paying tech and office jobs are virtually all located near executive housing. SOURCE: SANDICOR RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. 10
  12. 12. Small Region (<1.5M Jobs) Core Characteristics Small Regions (Employment Below 1.5 Million) Average Number of Cores 8 Size Range (#Jobs) of Cores: 15,000-58,000 Average Size of Cores in 29,000 Excluding CBD: Average % of Employment 38% Within Cores Source: RCLCO RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. 11
  13. 13. LARGE REGION CORE CHARACTERISTICS Large Region (Employment Above 1.5 Million) Average Number of Cores 14 Size Range (# Jobs) of Cores : 47,000-74,000 Average Size of Cores 53,000 Excluding CBD: % of Employment Within 38% Cores Source: RCLCO RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. 12
  14. 14. Predicting GrowthThree Core Types Drive Growth  Existing Core – large employment cores already shaping regional growth patterns-tend to have more than 25,000 jobs  Emerging Cores – enough job growth over next 10 to 20 years to shape regional growth and development patterns - will have approximately 25,000 or more by 2030  Likely New Core – areas of regions likely attract significant employment growth in the next 20 years, but will have less than 25,000 jobs in 2030 RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  15. 15. CENTRAL FLORIDA: CONNECTING FOR GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESSCONNECTING ECONOMIC CENTERS - RAIL Existing Employment Cores Emerging Employment Cores Likely New Employment CoresSOURCE: RCLCO RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. 14
  16. 16. APPLYING THE CENTERS ANALYIS Connecting for Global Competitiveness •  Tampa Bay Partnership, MyRegion Orlando – Identifying the economic centers – Link via transit and 30 year spatial vision Orange County – Innovation Way, a New Center •  County and major land owners to planning new major employment center Lake Nona – Medical City •  City of Orlando and land owner creating a new major employment center RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  17. 17. ENVISION UTAH: NEW EMPLOYMENT CORE IN NWQUADRANT HURT DOWNTOWN? Is a new center needed? Detract from existing centers? OR will a new “Center” in the Northwest Quadrant impact downtown?  Plan:   Strengthen existing centers   Add new center on Northwest Quadrant  Conclusion: New Centers needed even as existing centers grow RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  18. 18. PHOENIX – RE-USE OF MESA PROVING GROUNDS GM PROVING GROUNDS Utilizing “Centers Analysis” for the former GM Mesa Proving Grounds; can it become a new regional job center? SUPERSTITION VISTAS finding the balance between Market Demand and Sustainable Development Can Superstition Vista’s lead with jobs? What catalysts would be required? Can it evolve into a job center? RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  19. 19. SAN DIEGO: 15 EXISTING EMPLOYMENT CORESAND 4 MORE DEVELOPING CORES MAP 2008 TOTAL 2050 TOTAL 1 KEY CORE TYPE OF CORE EMPLOYEES EMPLOYEES 1 Camp Pendleton Catalytic/Military 30,960 35,460 2 Carlsbad/Palomar/Vista Industrial 41,300 59,400 High Tech 3 Rancho Bernardo 41,500 51,900 Industrial E1 4 Poway Industrial 31,200 41,000 5 Carmel Valley Office 17,900 21,800 Torrey Pines/UTC/ E2 6 Catalytic 106,100 126,300 2 UCSD E3 High Tech 7 Sorrento Valley 53,300 63,800 Industrial 8 Miramar Air Station Catalytic/Military 33,400 38,600 9 Kearny Mesa Industrial 87,300 104,300 3 10 Mission Valley Office 52,600 64,900 11 San Diego Airport Industrial 28,300 33,700 5 7 4 12 Downtown San Diego Urban Core 78,200 95,800 13 NAS North Island Catalytic/Military 14,800 19,800 6 8 14 San Diego Waterfront Industrial 81,600 104,700 E4 15 Border Industrial 17,200 66,500 9 E1 Oceanside Industrial Industrial 17,200 29,700 11 E2 San Marcos Catalytic 26,200 43,100 10 E3 Escondido Industrial 30,600 37,500 12 E4 El Cajon Industrial 25,000 35,200 14 13 15 RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.SOURCE: RCLCO 18
  20. 20. ECONOMIC GROWTH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY INVESTMENTS INIMPORTANT CATALYSTS MAP 9 KEY CATALYSTS Tourism 1 Convention Center & Waterfront 2 Balboa Park & San Diego Zoo 5 17 3 Sea World 4 4 San Diego Wild Animal Park 5 Lego Land Military 6 NAS North Island/Coronado 7 32nd St. Naval Station 16 8 Miramar Air Station 14 15 9 Camp Pendleton 8 13 12 Research & Development 10 University of San Diego 11 11 San Diego State University 3 10 2 12 University of California San Diego 1 6 13 Salk Institute 7 14 Torrey Pines 15 Scripps Research Institute 16 Sanford Burnham Institute 17 California State University San Marcos RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. 19
  21. 21. SAN DIEGO:FOUR MAJOR INDUSTRY SECTORS PROVIDE DIVERSITY INDUSTRY EMPLOYEES ECONOMIC IMPACT 76,000 Military Military $16.1 Billion 14,000 Civilian Life Sciences and Biotechnology 40,000 $9.2 Billion High Tech and Communications 39,000 $16 Billion Tourism 150,000 $18 BillionSOURCE: SDMAC; San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. 20
  22. 22. SAN DIEGO: CHALLENGES TO GROWTHENVIRONMENT (LAND) AND FISCAL CONSTRAINTS ➤  Existing Job Cores/Centers nearing capacity ➤  Constrained land availability (environmental protection)   Limited greenfield sites for where future Centers will develop   New growth areas likely to be re-development ➤  Anti-growth sentiment ➤  Housing “un”-affordability   Best jobs northside, attainable housing southside ➤  State of California fiscal and regulatory liabilities RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. 21
  23. 23. PLANNING FOR NEW CENTERS➧  Infill or Greenfield? Both.   Infill often more attractive to communities •  More efficient use of transportation investments, infrastructure •  Reduce driving, environmental impacts, sometimes less costly to provide services •  Placemaking, walkability, as catalyst   Greenfield less costly to the developer Stapleton, Denver •  Lower land costs •  Fewer financing barriers •  Less expensive infrastructure (e.g. less transit, open parking) •  Responsive to consumer preferences for lower density   Do “better greenfield”? •  More compact, walkable, centers and corridors, connected Mueller, Austin RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only.
  24. 24. METRO CORES:CREATING AND SUSTAINING THE PLACES WHERE JOBS GROWGregg Logan, Managing Director, January 25, 2011
  25. 25. ABOUT RCLCO Economic Development Services   Metropolitan Growth Trends Analysis- Employment Centers   Market and Feasibility Studies RCLCO specializes in real estate economics,   Fiscal/Economic Impact Analysis strategic planning and management consulting,   Economic Development and and advisory services for real estate investors and Revitalization developers, public agencies, financial institutions,   Value Capture Forecasting/Transit- Oriented Premium Analysis and non-profit organizations.   Affordable/Workforce Housing   Public/Private Partnership Structuring   Smart Code Review   Strategic Planning   Litigation Services RCLCO January 2011. All rights reserved, reproduction by permission only. ATLANTA │ AUSTIN │ LOS ANGELES │ ORLANDO │ WASHINGTON, DC

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