Water, Food, Energy and Institutions: Inextricably Linked - Keynote Address by Dr Uma Lele - CP meeting Day 1


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  • Information on the new actors is scarce, scattered and not harmonized. However, according to a recent 2009 study by the Brookings Institute…
  • Water, Food, Energy and Institutions: Inextricably Linked - Keynote Address by Dr Uma Lele - CP meeting Day 1

    1. 1. Water, Food, Energy and Institutions: Inextricably Linked<br />Uma Lele<br />Keynote Address <br />Consulting Partners Meeting<br />Global Water Partnership, Stockholm<br />August 18, 2011<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    2. 2. Food Price Rise and Volatility?<br />?<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    3. 3.
    4. 4. Trends in world hunger<br />Undernourishment in 2010, by Region (mill.)<br />Largest Number of the world’s hungry in South Asia<br />
    5. 5. Under Five Malnourishment Challenge: <br />South Asia and SSA off track<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    6. 6. Progress on access to an improved water source<br />Progress on access to improved sanitation<br />
    7. 7. By 2050 World Would Need to Feed 9 Billion+ People<br />FAO Projects:<br /><ul><li>Almost all population and income growth will arise in developing countries, particularly in Asia and SSA
    8. 8. Cereal Production (Net of Biofuels) wouldneed to increase by 70%
    9. 9. Meat production by 220%,
    10. 10. Cereal Imports of Developing countries will increase by 220%</li></ul>Dr UmaLele<br />
    11. 11. Will Food Supply Keep up With Growing Demand?<br />Sources of Demand are Well Understood<br /><ul><li>Population Growth:
    12. 12. All in LDCs
    13. 13. Income Growth
    14. 14. Mostly in LDCs
    15. 15. Urbanization:
    16. 16. Up from 50% to 70%
    17. 17. Shift in Food Preferences:
    18. 18. Rice, Wheat, Maize, Soybeans for Feed:
    19. 19. Biofuels: maize, oilseeds
    20. 20. Processed Foods</li></ul>Increased Risk and Uncertainty on the Supply Side<br /><ul><li>Climate Change
    21. 21. Limits to Land, Water, Soils, Biodiversity, Forests, Fisheries
    22. 22. Energy shortages and subsidies,
    23. 23. Last Frontiers?
    24. 24. Brazil, SSA?
    25. 25. Increased Risks and Uncertainty (from climates, global market integration)
    26. 26. Slowing Productivity Growth
    27. 27. Stagnant Investment levels in R and D
    28. 28. Interlinked International Markets </li></li></ul><li>Agricultural productivity growth is slowing(source Fuglie 2011)<br />Source: World Bank Development Report 2008 (figure refers to developing countries only)<br />
    29. 29. Where is land?<br />Where Is Water for Food?<br />72% of Irrigation in Asia<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    30. 30.
    31. 31.
    32. 32. Two Likely Future Scenarios of Growth in Food Production<br />Area Expansion: and Intensification in SSA> three times the cerrados in Brazil?<br />Further Intensification of Agriculture Will be required in Asia<br /><ul><li>80% to 90% of increase in production will have to come from agricultural intensification
    33. 33. Increased yields per ha
    34. 34. Changing cropping patters
    35. 35. Multiple cropping on unit of land</li></ul>Dr UmaLele<br />
    36. 36. More Crop Per Drop?Regional Productivity Growth in Parts of China has been higher than anywhere elsewhere on a a scaled up basis”Top Ten Provinces<br /> The top ten provinces in TFP growth for the 1985-2007 period. Six of them are on the east coast<br />Jiangxi 8.17%<br />Guangdong* 8.11% <br />Hebei* 7.95%<br />Fujian* 7.89% <br />Shandong* 7.37%<br />Hubei 7.34%<br />Inner Mongolia 7.26%<br />Zhejiang* 7.19%<br />Sichuan 7.18%<br />Liaoning* 6.83%<br />Wang, Tuan, Gale, Somwaru, and Hanson. AAEA 2011<br />
    37. 37. Note: (1999-2009)<br /> (Red circle)  Agricultural Growth Rates > 4%<br />   <br /> (Black circle) Agricultural Growth Rates  2% to 4% <br /> (while circle)  Agricultural Growth Rates <2 %  <br />Source: Based on Total Factor Productivity and Contribution of Research Investment to Agricultural Growth in India: Ramesh Chand et al. NCAP 2011 <br />
    38. 38. Improved Water Management in East and South East Asia and Scope for Knowledge Transfers/ South – South Learning: China and Vietnam and South Asia<br />In China and Viet Nam, agriculture water withdrawal as a percentage of total national water withdrawal has declined from 92.5 and 88.2 in 1990 to 68.1 and 67.7 in 2000 (FAO) and to 60% according to latest data (Khalid Mohtadullah)<br />Incentivized Irrigation Bureaucrats in China have helped improved water management ( Tushaar Shah)<br />Successful innovations in Gujarat in India<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    39. 39.
    40. 40.
    41. 41. Water Management Challenges in India Irrigation Investment & Irrigated Area in India<br />Source: Amerasinghe et al<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    42. 42. Government Investment in Total Ag Research, On Soil and Water (incl. Education) in Agriculture by Sub-sectors in India: 1960-1961 to 2007-08 (in million Rs at current prices)<br />Source: Total Factor Productivity and Contribution of Research Investment to Agricultural Growth in India: Ramesh Chand et al. NCAP 2011<br />
    43. 43.
    44. 44. China Stands out in Public Agricultural R and D Spending Relative to SSA, Brazil and India<br />Source: ASTI as reported in Beintema and Stads (2011)<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    45. 45. Average annual<br />TFP growth<br />> 2%<br />1-2%<br />< 1%<br />Average ag TFP growth, 1970-2006 (% per year)<br />Former USSR<br />Caribbean<br />Developing<br /> Oceania<br />Sub-Saharan Africa<br />Circled regions show persistently <br />low TFP growth<br />Source: Keith Fuglie, Technology Capital, The Price of Admission to the Growth Club<br />
    46. 46. Rainfed Agriculture Yields Are Converging<br /> Average Grain yields in Sub-Saharan Africa (37%) of Average Yields in Other Regions<br />Source: Food Security Assessment, 2010-20 / GFA-21; Economic Research Service/USDA<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    47. 47. Source: Food Aid Flows Report 2009 by WFP and www.wfp.org/fais<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    48. 48. International Cooperation in Water and Food<br />Goal 8<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    49. 49. Estimates of total aid (all sectors) in 2007(Source: Kharas, 2009)<br />Fragmented Aid Architecture<br />(Source: Hudson Institute, Global Index of Philanthropy, 2009)<br />(Source: OECD DAC database)<br />(Source: Homi Kharas, 2009*)<br />* Brookings Institute: Kharas, H., “Development Assistance in the 21st Century”, Contribution to the VIII Salamanca Forum, The Fight Against Hunger and Poverty, July 2009<br />(Source: OECD DAC database)<br />
    50. 50. Declining ODA to Agriculture (1979 – 2007)<br />
    51. 51.
    52. 52. External Investment in Irrigation and Drainage<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    53. 53. Increased Opportunities for GWPDecline in Technical Capacity at the World Bank<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    54. 54. Total Biennial Resources Available (1994-2007)<br />Note: The above figure shows FAO’s regular program budget is funded by its members, through contributions, adjusted to the Euro/US dollar exchange rate fixed by the FAO Conference. This budget covers core technical work, cooperation and partnerships including the Technical Cooperation Program, knowledge exchange, policy and advocacy, direction and administration, governance and security.<br />The FAO’s regular budget for the biennium 2010-2011 has been increased by 7.6% to US$ 1000.5 million from the biennium 2008–2009 US$ 929.8 million, adjusted to the Euro/US dollar exchange rate fixed by the FAO Conference. Member states froze FAO's budget from 1994 through 2001 at US$650 million per biennium. The budget was raised slightly to US$651.8 million for 2002–03 and jumped to US$749 million for 2004–05, but this nominal increase was seen as a decline in real terms. In November 2005, the FAO governing Conference voted for a two-year budget appropriation of US$765.7 million for 2006–2007; once again, the increase only partially offset rising costs due to inflation.<br />Source: FAO: The Challenge of Renewal: Report of the Independent External Evaluation of the FAO: September 2007 (figure 7.1)<br />This figure shows FAO’s biennial resources in terms of US K$ at 1994 constant prices.<br />
    55. 55. Implications for GWP and Partners<br />GWP’s mission is worthy<br />But development challenges have become more complex<br />Generating and disseminating Relevant Knowledge is a costly business<br />It is easier to explain differences in performance among regions and countries than to explain why or how and transferability of experience.<br />Donor resources have become limited and fragmented<br />More are being made available through Trust Funds<br />Donor expectations about demonstrating impact has increased<br />But donor time horizon has become shorter <br />Leadership, institutions, capacity and demand for knowledge in developing countries are key for success<br />GWP needs to mobilize the best of technical expertise. Quality of relations, trust and confidence with developing countries will be critical necessary conditions.<br />Dr UmaLele<br />
    56. 56. THANK YOU!<br />Dr UmaLele<br />