Multiple Interactions Between Food and Water Security, Developing and Agenda for Action in South Asia, by Uma Lele, Manmohan Agarwal and Sambuddha Goswami
Multiple Interactions Between Food and Water Security Developing an Agenda For Action in South Asia Uma Lele Manmohan Agarwal Sambuddha Goswami
Definition of Food SecurityFood security: All people, at all times, havephysical, social and economic access tosufficient, safe and nutritious food which meetstheir dietary needs and food preferences for anactive and healthy life. (World Food Summit, 1996).Availability, Access, Stability and Utilization.
Definition of Water SecurityThe availability of an acceptable quantity and qualityof water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems andproduction, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks to people, environments and economies.----- D. Grey and C. Sadoff. ―Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and development‖. Water Policy9(2007): 545-57.Availability, Quality, Health, Livelihoods, Production, AcceptableLevels of Risks? Environmental SustainabilityDestructive Nature of Water—floods and droughts
Despite Rapid Economic Growth Largest Number of the world’s Largest Share of World’s hungry in South Asia Undernourishment in 2010, by Region (Millions) Number of Undernourished Person (Millions)400,0 Northern Africa350,0 Sub-Saharan Africa300,0 Latin America and the250,0 Caribbean200,0 Eastern Asia150,0 Eastern Asia (without China)100,0 South Asia 50,0 South Asia (without 0,0 India) South-Eastern Asia Western Asia Source: FAO STATISTICS DIVISION
1981 1990 Latin America Population living below $ 1.25 a Population living below $ 1.25 a and the Latin America Caribbean day=1899.83 mil and the day=1818.45 mil 3% Caribbean 3% Europe and Rest of East Asia Central Asia Europe and and Pacific Rest of East Asia 0% China’s and Pacific 12% Central Asia 0% Middle East and India 10% Middle East and North North Africa 24% Africa Poverty India 22% 1% Rest of South 1% Rest of South Share was Asia 7% Asia 8% the Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa largest of China 11% China 16% A Much 44% 38% Larger Poverty Incidence 2005 Europe and Central in 1981 Population living below $ 1.25 a Asia 1% day=1373.7mil Latin America and the Caribbean Rest of East Asia 3%Data Source: and Pacific Middle East andhttp://go.worldbank.org/NT2A1XUW India 8% North Africa 33%P0 (PovcalNet) Rest of South Asia 1%GFAR Paper/ GAT Report 11%Foot Note: The survey years for allthe regions except India are 1981, Sub-Saharan Africa1990 and 2005 but for India the 28% Chinasurvey years are 1977.5, 1987.5 15%and 2004.5. South Asia 44% and SS Africa 28% of Global Poverty In 2005
On Track for Poverty Reduction by 2015 But Off Track on Food Security?
On Track on Water Access but Way Off Track on Sanitation
Lowest Per Capita Cultivated Land and Declining Annual Growth Rates of Agricultural Population Acute Agricultural Land Pressure in Developing Region 251,2 (1980-2007) 1 EAP(DEVELOPING EAP(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES COUNTRIES ONLY-- 20 20) ONLY--20)0,8 LAC(DEVELOPING LAC(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ONLY-- COUNTRIES 29)0,6 ONLY--29) MENA(DEVELOPING 15 COUNTRIES ONLY--0,4 MENA(DEVELOPI 12) NG COUNTRIES ONLY--12) SA(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ONLY--0,2 8) SA(8 COUNTRIES) 10 SSA(DEVELOPING 0 COUNTRIES ONLY-- 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2007 1980-2007 45) SSA(DEVELOPING EASTERN EUROPE-0,2 COUNTRIES ONLY--45) 5-0,4 ROW(DEVELOPED REGION)-0,6 0-0,8 1980 1990 2000 2007 Source: FAOSTAT Source: FAOSTAT
By 2050 Growing Urban and Agricultural Population LAC (South America+ Central LAC (South America+ America+ Caribbean) Central America+ Caribbean) Total Urban Population, by Region Total Agricultural Population, by Region (Developing Region) (Est. & Proj. 2008) (Developing Region) (Est. & Proj. 2008) (1000) (1000)1600000 SSA (Middle+ Eastern+ 900000 SSA (Middle+ Eastern+ Southern+ Western Africa) Southern+ Western Africa) (Developing Region) (Developing Region) 8000001400000 MENA (Middle East Asia+ MENA (Middle East Asia+ Northern Africa) (Developing Northern Africa) (Developing Region) Region) 7000001200000 Eastern Asia (Excluding Eastern Asia (Excluding Japan) and Oceania( Japan) and Oceania( Excluding Australia+ New Excluding Australia+ New Zealand) (Developing Region) 600000 Zealand) (Developing1000000 Central Asia+ Western Asia Region) Central Asia+ Western Asia (Excluding Middle East Asian (Excluding Middle East Asian Countries) 500000 Countries)800000 South Asia ( 8 Countries South Asia ( 8 Countries only)(Developing Region) only)(Developing Region) 400000600000 South-Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia (Developing Region) 300000 (Developing Region)400000 Eastern Europe (Developed 200000 Eastern Europe (Developed Region) Region)200000 Rest of Europe (Developed 100000 Region) Rest of Europe (Developed Region) 0 1961 2008 2030 2050 Other Developed Region 0 (Australia+ Canada+ Japan+ 1980 2008 2020 Other Developed Region New Zealand+ USA) (Australia+ Canada+ Japan+ Source: FAOSTAT 2011 Source: FAOSTAT 2011 New Zealand+ USA) Situation worse by 2050
Slower TFP Growth in South Asia than South East Asia Agricultural TFP Indexes (1961-2007) [South Asia--7 Countries Only] Afghanistan 300 Bangladesh 250 BhutanBase Year 1961=100 200 India Nepal 150 Pakistan 100 Sri Lanka 50 North-East Asia South-East 0 Asia * Data for Maldives are not available NOTE: Source of TFP Indexes figures is Fuglie, K. 2010. Total factor productivity in the global agricultural economy: Evidence from FAO data, in The Shifting Patterns of Agricultural Production and Productivity Worldwide. Eds. Julian Alston, Bruce Babcock, Philip Pardey. Ames, Iowa: Midwest Agribusiness Trade and Research Information Center, pp 63-95.
Large Yield Gap Between East Asia and South Asia South Asia and East Asia Region: Yield Growth of Total Cereal (Hg/Ha) (1961-2009) 450 400Base Year 1961=100 350 300 250 200 East Asia 150 South Asia 100 50 0 Source: FAOSTAT 2011 Note: South Asia Region (8 countries only) --- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. East Asia Region (5 countries only)—China, Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea.
Rapid Growth of Wheat and Rice Production Slow Growth in Rainfed Food Crops South Asia Region: Principal Cereal Production (Tonnes) (1961-2009)450000000400000000350000000300000000 Wheat250000000 Rice, paddy Sorghum200000000 Millet150000000 Maize Barley100000000 Buckwheat 50000000 0 Source: FAOSTAT 2011
SA’s High Vulnerability to Climate ChangeExtreme Weather Already 750 million people affected by a natural disasters in past two decades. 230,000 deaths US$45 billion in damagesMelting of Glaciers in the HimalayasSea-level Rise Affecting cities with high populationsHigher TemperaturesVariable RainfallOverall 2% Loss of GDP of India by some models
Likely Impacts • Greatly Increased Risk and Uncertainty • Yield declines—Maize, vs. Rice and Wheat • Greater Crop and livestock losses • Change in the World Agricultural Production and Trade • Biofuels
85 to 95 Percent of Water Use in Agriculture? WATER-FOOD SECURITY-CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS—M. Aiti Kadi WATER IWRM FS AGRICULTURE CLIMATE CHANGE 16AITKADI
Declining Net Aid and Falling Shares of Agriculture in Aid Aid Flows as % of GDP, by Region 1982-2007 7 6 5 4 EAP LAC 3 SA SSA 2 1 0 1982-90 1991-2000 2001-05 2007 Source: WDR & WDIFAO. 2009. The State of Food Insecurity in the World: Agarwal and Lele, Forthcoming Economic Crises – Impacts and Lessons Learned. Rome: FAO.
Focus Workshop on Needed Policies, Investment Choices and InstitutionsIs treatment of climate- water- interactions in national plans adequate? – E.g. Treatment of Increased Risks and Uncertainty in Research and DevelopmentAre investment choices right in Policies and Infrastructure development? E.g. Surface Irrigation vs Ground Water Development vs. conjunctive use?Is there a Ground Water Development Policy/Strategy?Are Energy subsidies/shortages leading to over exploitation of water?Are Water Related Institutions (both Government and Community Levelfrom national to local) Effective in addressing issues of efficiency, equityand sustainability
Large Scope to Increase Inter-Regional and Global-National Cooperation• An Effective Web based Communication• GIS Data and Just in Time Distribution• Investment in Knowledge Generation to Promote Multisectoral planning• Demand Management of Water and Crops• More and Better M and E• Rapid Translation of Lessons into Action