Energy-related CO2 emissions were record-high in 2012, reaching over 31 Gt. This year in May, a CO2 concentration of over 400ppm was recorded for the first time in several milleniaIN the total primary energy supply, the role of fossil fuels is likely to remain very significant, even in IEA’s 2DS scenario: 45% in 2050. So we’re not getting rid of fossil fuelsCCS has the unique capability to unlock emissions that are locked-in in existing infrastructureAnd for several industries, there are no alternatives for CCS to significantly reduce emissions.
Comparing against emissions in 6DS, the role of CCS is significant if we want to reach emissions of a 2DS world: cumulatively 14%, and share increasing to 17% in 2050.
Additional investment to reach 2DS are USD 36 trillion. CCS is only 10% of this.CCS is also part of a cost-effective solution: if we don’t have CCS in the power sector at all before 2050 and want to reach the same level of decarbonisation in power, we will need to spend 40% more in investment.
CCS pathway divided into three distinct phases:Next seven years creating conditions2020-2030 large-scale deployment starts2030 onwards CCS is mainstream
Our long-term deployment challenge is tremendous. But to get us on the right pathway, we should concentrate on the next seven years. As said, the next seven years are about creating conditions and learning, much less about actual emission reductions with CCS.
Two things to think about here:What can the volume of use be? If it’s small, it may not be of much help. Need to have millions of tons at a minimumWhat happens to the CO2 at the end? If it ends up being emitted, the use makes little or no sense from climate perspective.The prize is to find a large-scale use that would ensure large volumes and can contain CO2.
Panel 1. Tackling climate change and ensuring energy security, Philippe Benoit, IEA