A view from the top
Influence concentrates amongst the
already powerful as advantage
brings more advantage
Less dynamic economic
development, muted by rigidities in
structures and institutions.
Secondary policy developments
facilitated, e.g. climate (CCS).
Natural gas becomes the backbone
of the global energy system.
A profound shift occurs in global
transport and infrastructure.
Total primary energy by source
A view from the horizon
Emerging interests intermittently
accommodated Influence widely
distributed (e.g. “Twitter” world).
Core reforms unleash growth – and
expectations for further reform.
Markets dominate and more
empowered constituencies hinder
some secondary policy advancement
(i.e. CCS comes much later).
Hi h prices and th rise of
d the i
distributed solar PV change the
Total primary energy by source
Climate change and the
long term challenge of
The climate change problem
Need to avoid the trillionth tonne1 of carbon to stay below 2°C . . .
1 trillion tonnes
caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne.
Myles R. Allen, Malte Meinshausen et. al. Nature Vol 458, 30 April 2009
The climate change problem
. . and using current proven1 fossil reserves2 takes us well over the mark.
Statistical Review of World Energy
Current reserves of oil and gas are ~60 years each, coal ~110 years at current usage rates
. . . . . and
Current policies may slow this down,
but are unlikely to solve the problem!
“We will reduce the CO2 intensity o the eco o y by 30%
e s y of e economy
“By 2020, renewable energy will make up 20% of the energy supply”
“We must first improve energy efficiency, that will reduce emissions”
“We must stimulate clean energy investment”
Carbon capture and storage is different
• Carbon is returned to the
“geosphere” where it came
• There is no geographical
(emit it somewhere else) or
temporal (emit it later) shift
• Even limited local action
has a global benefit.
A gas “backbone” with early and rapid deployment of CCS limits the stock
CCS comes 20-30 years later with the result that the end stock is higher
Emissions in 2050 are stubbornly high
Neither scenario meets current 2020 or 2050 goals or 2°C but because of
CCS deployment both see emissions head to zero within this century
Global CO2 Emissions, Gt per an
CCS in the New Lens Scenarios
CO2 Stored, GT per an
The big dilemma – energy technologies
take a generation to get going!
Key points on CCS development
• Managing climate change means managing the
cumulative emissions of CO2 (under 1 trillion tonnes)
• CCS is the only technology that deals directly with
the “stock” emissions issue.
• Net zero emissions is an eventual “must have”.
• CCS needs to come early and be rapidly deployed,
but like all energy technologies it will take a
“generation” to really take hold.
• Waiting for a high renewables energy mix creates
additional carbon “stock” and additional warming.
This scenarios presentation contains forward-looking statements
that may affect Shell’s financial condition, results of operations,
and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than
statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be,
forward-looking statements. F
d l ki
Forward-looking statements are
d l ki
statements of future expectations that are based on
management’s current expectations and assumptions and
involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could
cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially
from those expressed or implied in these statements.
Forward-looking statements include, among other things,
statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch
Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s
expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections, and
assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by
their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘believe’’,
‘‘could’’, ‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’,
‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘risks’’,
seek should target will
‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’, and similar terms and phrases
There are a number of factors that could affect the future
operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results
to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking
statements included in this scenarios book, including (without
limitation):(a) i fluctuations i crude oil and natural gas; (b)
li it ti ) ( ) price fl t ti
d t l
changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency
fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;(e) reserves
estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g)
environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the
identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and
targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such
transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing
countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j)
l i l ti
fiscal, and regulatory d
developments i l di
regulatory measures addressingclimate change; (k) economic
and financial market conditions in various countries and regions;
(l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and
renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental
entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects, and
delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes
in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in
this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the
cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section.
Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking
statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are
contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended
www shell com/investor and www sec gov
These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each
forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this
scenarios presentation, 15th November 2013. Neither Royal
Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation
t publicly update or revise any f
forwardlooking statement as a
result of new information, future events or other information. In
light of these risks, results could differ materially from those
stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements
contained in this scenarios presentation.