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British Geological Survey/NCCCS – The long-term fate of CO2 in the subsurface environment

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Professor Mike Stephenson, Head of Science (Energy) at the British Geological Survey (BGS) leads a Global CCS Institute webinar on the long-term fate of CO2 in the subsurface environment.

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British Geological Survey/NCCCS – The long-term fate of CO2 in the subsurface environment

  1. 1. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTEThe long-term fate of CO2 in the subsurface environmentMike Stephenson and Jonathan PearceBritish Geological Survey/Nottingham Centre for CCSWWW.GLOBALCCSINSTITUTE.COM
  2. 2. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE MIKE STEPHENSON Head of Science (Energy) at the British Geological Survey (BGS) - Professor Stephenson runs the Energy Programme at BGS including carbon capture and storage, hydrocarbons, renewables and unconventional energy - Director of the Nottingham Centre for Carbon Capture and Storage, a joint venture between the BGS and the University of Nottingham. - Mike earned a BSc, MSc and PhD from the University of Sheffield and Imperial College, London as well as various postgraduate teaching qualifications. 1
  3. 3. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE JONATHAN PEARCE Job Title at Organisation -Jonathan Pearce, over 24 years experience with BGS. -Involved in CO2 storage research since the early 1990s and has led a number of research projects on long-term geochemical processes and the development of shallow monitoring tools in CO2 Storage. -His research has allowed him to collaborate with other researchers globally including in China, Australia, Canada, South Africa and widely across Europe. 2
  4. 4. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE THE LONG TERM FATE OF CO2 IN THE SUBSURFACE ENVIRONMENT Mike Stephenson Jonathan Pearce M
  5. 5. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE RELEVANT TO • Regulation • Public confidence • Investment M
  6. 6. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Regulation and public confidence VERY IMPORTANT Building the three-dimensional static geological earth model Using the data collected in Step 1, a three-dimensional static geological earth model, or a set of such models, of the candidate storage complex, including the caprock and the hydraulically connected areas and fluids shall be built using computer reservoir simulators. The static geological earth model(s) shall characterise the complex in terms of: (a) geological structure of the physical trap; (b) geomechanical, geochemical and flow properties of the reservoir overburden (caprock, seals, porous and permeable horizons) and surrounding formations; (c) fracture system characterisation and presence of any human-made pathways; (d) areal and vertical extent of the storage complex; (e) pore space volume (including porosity distribution); (f) baseline fluid distribution; (g) any other relevant characteristics. J
  7. 7. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE BASICS OF STORAGE M
  8. 8. Basics of long term storage GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE M
  9. 9. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Basics of long term storage M
  10. 10. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE STORAGE AND TIME M
  11. 11. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTEStorage and time „Free CO2‟ Physical trap Time =? TIME Dissolved CO2 Solubility trap Time =? Carbonate minerals Mineral trap M
  12. 12. Storage CCS INSTITUTE GLOBAL and time Physical trap CO2 M
  13. 13. Storage CCS INSTITUTE GLOBAL and timePhysical trap: pressure in a closed system CO2 M
  14. 14. Physical trapping: simulation GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Storage and time M
  15. 15. Storage CCS INSTITUTE GLOBAL and timeThe first 50 yearsAfter 3 power stations per year (30mt/yr) for 50 years. CO2 M
  16. 16. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTEThe first 50 years Pressure – open system M
  17. 17. Storage CCS INSTITUTE GLOBAL and time PRESSURE: ‘CLOSED’ SYSTEM M
  18. 18. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTEThe first 1780 years: free CO2 free CO2 CO2 injection starts Storage and time M
  19. 19. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Solubility trapping : Sleipner, the next 275 years free CO2 CO2 in solution 2070 (20 Mt) Second ceases of reservoir. First repeat survey 2270 (2.3 1999 CO2 reaches top 2001 (4.3Mt) Injectionrepeat survey 2020Storage and time: effects of impurities on solubility? [courtesy Erik Lindeberg, SINTEF] J
  20. 20. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Lab dissolution experiment Free CO2 Saline water 195ss 90 150 255sss 0135 s 105 120 60[BGS Hydrothermal Laboratory] Storage and time J
  21. 21. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTEHOW COULD WE DEFINE „LONG TERM‟? When...? Complete dissolution Stabilisation• Approaches to defining appropriate time scales of post-closure: – When complete dissolution of CO2 occurs? – When stability of CO2 migration is reached? (creation of CO2 reservoir) – When a “new” THMC equilibrium is reached? (steady- state regime) 20 J
  22. 22. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE CONFORMITY WITH MODELS• Any assessment of permanency will rely on models – Hence the validity of static and dynamic models is critical• Validity and robustness is tested by comparing model predictions with past monitoring data (so-called history-matching)• Suggested tests: – A model matches historical flow/pressure data to within x% of the actual measured data. – If a static model has not been revised over e.g. 5 years, and still adequately enables predictions to match monitored performance, then the static model may be considered robust and representative.• Key issues are: – What is adequate? (e.g. within 5% or 10%?) – The acceptable range deemed to meet measurements will vary with parameter and is likely to be specified as a condition of the storage permit – What if there is more than one unique solution? – Updates to models should be expected as more data is obtained J
  23. 23. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE CONFORMITY WITH MODELS • Models used to predict future performance should be those that have been used during site characterisation and development of monitoring plan (subject to approved revisions) • The regulator might want to review the changes undertaken to models during the project 22 J
  24. 24. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTEThings godown....CO2mineralises.. Dissolution? mineralisation J
  25. 25. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE DEMONSTRATING LONG-TERM STABILITY • Model scenarios should be conservative – parameters should be far from expected values (e.g. 2δ) • Define acceptable % deviation from stable value (5-10%) • Models predict eventual stability of the plume with no evidence of potential future leakage • Key monitored parameters should be within a predetermined range to the future stable values J
  26. 26. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE CONCLUSIONS• Key trapping mechanisms are: – Physical containment – Residual trapping – CO2 dissolution – Mineral trapping• Demonstrating long-term performance is fundamental to transferring long-term liability to the State.• Storage risk goes down with time M
  27. 27. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTEACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Sam Holloway (BGS) Andy Chadwick (BGS) Mercedes Maroto-Valer (NCCCS) Sarah Mackintosh (NCCCS) Antony Benham (NCCCS) Sarah Hannis (BGS) John Williams (BGS) Andy Newell (BGS)
  28. 28. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE QUESTIONS You can submit questions to us simply by typing your question directly into the GoToWebinar control Panel. 27
  29. 29. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Mike Stephenson, Kathy Hill, Jonathon Pearce 28
  30. 30. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE www.globalccsinstitute.com 29

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