Futurist Gerd Leonhard talks about the future of telecoms in world where control is becoming virtually impossible.

1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Telecoms and
The End of Control
By Gerd Leonhard
www.mediafuturist.com
www.endofcontrol.com

2. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A few thoughts on the current crisis
• This is indeed a major paradigm shift
• Now is a good time to have real, 2-way conversations with your customers, and to
maintain / build trust (consider blogs & twitter, video, wikis…)
• There is no new Cookbook or Recipe, yet - sorry!
• Whoever will empower the USERS the most, will win - especially now!
• Great time to exploit latent opportunities
• Biggest opportunity is to ‘Lubricate the
Digital Economy’ *Simon Torrance, Telco2.0

3. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
3 key aspects:
Increasing fragmentation everywhere
< Having
Conversations
becomes more < Collaboration is
important than ever
before
more important than
ever before

4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Telco Futures:
Provide Platform for Experiences
Service Pipe Connect People
Content Pipe
Connect Content
Data Pipe

5. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Get ready for some serious role changes…

6. Don’t be ‘too little too late’ !
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
quot;The company reported 3rd quarter net income of $6.5 million, compared to
$13.4 million for the same period last year. Advertising declined 16% in the
quarter after reporting an 11% fall for the first half of the year.
Print advertising took the biggest hit with an 18.3% fall for the quarter, with
classified advertising down 28%. Online advertising was up
10.2% …. but the online gains were not enough to offset the decline in
print.

7. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Scenes from the past

8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Do you like Control more than
new Revenues?
Was: More Control = More Money
Will be: Less Control = More Growth

9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Data
SMS
Calls

10. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Experiences
Services
Content
Data
SMS / MMS
Calls

11. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Instead of Control:
• User empowerment
• User participation
• User engagement
• Transparency
• Openness
• Collaboration

12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

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14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Now, People will subscribe to People.
And to Mass Media.

15. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future: connecting Users to Users is the key

16. Connected Users = Control Shift
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
We can find out ...anything
We decide who gets to market to us
We find out we can actually do stuff, too *
We are starting to question traditional rules

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 We can (could) control Copies - but not ‘Feeding’
 We can (could) control PUSH - but not PULL
 We can (could) control Closed - but not Open
 We can (could) control Data - but not Community

19. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future Role of Telcos and Operators:
Content, Service, Experience and Data Pipes

20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Social Networking and Social
Media is the next SMS.
X 10
But:

21. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The rise of Professional Amateurs
Now, every user is also a….

22. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Welcome to the People
Formerly Known As …
Audience
Consumer
Listener
Customer
Buyer

23. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Hello…
Users
Creators
Contributors
Peers
Producers
…

24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Authority ?
Ownership ?
Control ?

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Control Shift Examples

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We are rapidly moving from a Command-and-Control
to Coordinate-and-Cultivate business culture
(* Thomas Malone, The Future of Work)
Feels Like Free Content (Flat Rates)
Serious Competition for Attention & Permission
Radical Customization and Personalization
Advertising becomes… Content

28. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The result of this new Broadband Culture is the
radical disruption of:
Production
Copyright
Ownership
Competition
Authority
Control

29. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Content Futures:
Copy Economy
Access & Attention
Usage is the new
Economy
Currency

30. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
And where’s the new money?

31. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Some related future predictions:
Free Internet access becomes the default in many places
A lot of premium content will be bundled (and paid for by 3rd parties)
TV, Radio & the Web will converge completely
Every single user will be engaged in social networks
50% of the ~850 Billion global advertising budget will shift to digital /
interactive / next-generation ‘advertising’
Up to 50% of content will be generated by the Users, within 5 years
Open platforms will become the default within 2-3 years

32. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Some important Issues to solve
Privacy becomes almost impossible to maintain
Data & Identity Theft become more common
Continuous Partial Attention is becoming more common
Culture changes as Digital Natives take over
However: the economic potential of an
Open Network - of ‘Too Much
Freedom’ - will always be much larger
than that of a Closed, Controlled and
Authoritarian Network

33. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Operator 2.0 Keywords
Attention not Control
Experience Provider
Freemium
‘Lifestyle Apps’ & APIs
UGC Facilitation
Content flat rates & “Feels like Free”
New roles & new collaborations

34. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Telco 2.0
Content
Data Experiences
Services
Voice

35. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Go easier on the Control key…
Now is the time to Take
Share, Transform & Lead

36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Your biggest
Opportunity is here -
and Now.