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Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




            The Future of Music,
             Media and Content:
          Free, Shared a...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                I am standing on the shoulders of many giants...
                           ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




        Today’s key message: Less Control will bring

    more Success and more Income to...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               The crisis of the Content Business
• Mere copies of content ar...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                     Global Broadband Penetration
                           ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




            Disruption
   Reinvention
The Copyright dilemma (1)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Copyright dilemma (2)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



             Right ... for the law - but
                wrong for the $$ !
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Rather...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




     • Is the quest for Control realistic?
     • Will it make Money?
     • Will it be f...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Stop this?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                       We
                                     cannot
   ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

            Compete with Free?

                 We don’t compete with
                     ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 How to make your customers angry:
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                      Do we really want Criminalization?




  http://flickr....
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


  Why has Sharing become a bad thing?
Sharing is a key driver
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

A world of NO permission is a world of NO $
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


  Moving from take-down to permission
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 This is a very serious change - and opportunity!


                               Copy Eco...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
         Average Available Time                                   Available Choices
         ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



        So this is not about technology!




                          The Age of Ideas
  ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                 Alternatives to Control




                     http://flic...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                 Alternatives to Control




                     http://flic...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                    Command & Control
                       becomes
       Coordinate & ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



      If we bet on Control, we are putting
          our money in the wrong place
The alternatives...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




        No - these
        are not
        California
        Hippy-Geek
        Dreams!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




•    Give Permission - and collect revenue shares
•    License digital music like Radio -...
Because
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




 Google China President Kai Fu Lee: Mutual Interest,
 rather than Monopoly, is th...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


Selling content: finding the new money
                Next Generation Advertising     Free...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Value of ‘a Copy’            Value of CONTEXT
               ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               New Value: Meta-Content
                               *aka Da...
The new Content Economy: the User is a major force
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Solution
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                       ~1910

 ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




            P e r m i s s i o n .
            E n g a g e m e n t .
            C o n v e...
Next Generation Advertising
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




            F o r g e t

            A d v e r t i s i n g

            a s              ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
                                    ...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               Freemium
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

  Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized
  the solution is to offer val...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                    Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e




   Yes... we do!




ht...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               To summarize
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                   Thanks for your attention!


  TALK BACK:
  ★ email me at gerd@mediafu...
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Future Of Content Free Shared Paid Gerd Leonhard At Ficod 08

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Futurist Gerd Leonhard talks about how Content can be a business when copies are basically free. From the 2008 FICOD conference in Madrid, Spain, see http://www.mediafuturist.com/2008/11/the-future-of-c.html

Future Of Content Free Shared Paid Gerd Leonhard At Ficod 08

  1. 1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Music, Media and Content: Free, Shared and... Paid? Presentation by Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Free book PDF www.music20thebook.com
  2. 2. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist I am standing on the shoulders of many giants... Don Tapscott: Wikinomics Yochai Benkler: The Wealth of Networks Clay Shirky: Here comes Everybody Jeff Howe: Crowdsourcing Chris Anderson: The LongTail Seth Godin: Meatloaf Sundae Larry Lessig: Remix, Free Culture P.S.: there is little futurism in today’s presentation ;)
  3. 3. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Today’s key message: Less Control will bring more Success and more Income to the Content Creators and the Content Industries
  4. 4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The crisis of the Content Business • Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’ • The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!) • Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model (Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...) • Broadband culture drives further commodization • What used to be paid for is now often free • Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!) • Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition • There is more content consumption than ever before - but where is the ‘new money’?
  5. 5. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Global Broadband Penetration Global Mobile Penetration Percentage of People with Computers Total 231% 122% 99% 99% 74% 80% 61% 30% 33% 6% 7% 12% Today 2-3 years 5-7 years Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required
  6. 6. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Disruption Reinvention
  7. 7. The Copyright dilemma (1) Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  8. 8. The Copyright dilemma (2) Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  9. 9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Right ... for the law - but wrong for the $$ !
  10. 10. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Rather...
  11. 11. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Is the quest for Control realistic? • Will it make Money? • Will it be fair and equitable? • Will it create a Culture & Society in which we will want to live in? • Can Control work everywhere?
  12. 12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Stop this?
  13. 13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist We cannot wall-in our Content in this future
  14. 14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Compete with Free? We don’t compete with free copies. We sell everything else.
  15. 15. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How to make your customers angry:
  16. 16. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Do we really want Criminalization? http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/
  17. 17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  18. 18. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Why has Sharing become a bad thing?
  19. 19. Sharing is a key driver Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  20. 20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A world of NO permission is a world of NO $
  21. 21. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Moving from take-down to permission
  22. 22. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This is a very serious change - and opportunity! Copy Economy Access / Usage / Sharing Economy
  23. 23. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention Amount of Input Need for Selection, Filtering & Curation Need for Community of Content Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  24. 24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist So this is not about technology! The Age of Ideas Emerging cultural practices New business models
  25. 25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Alternatives to Control http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/
  26. 26. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Alternatives to Control http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/
  27. 27. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Command & Control becomes Coordinate & Cultivate *Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”
  28. 28. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist If we bet on Control, we are putting our money in the wrong place
  29. 29. The alternatives... Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  30. 30. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist No - these are not California Hippy-Geek Dreams!
  31. 31. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Give Permission - and collect revenue shares • License digital music like Radio - and collect revenue shares everywhere • Engage and converse with the users - and get their data in return • Switch to a YES approach NOW
  32. 32. Because Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Google China President Kai Fu Lee: Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly, is the key to sustainable growth
  33. 33. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Selling content: finding the new money Next Generation Advertising Freemium Flat Rates & Bundles New Generatives Sell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies) 20% 20% 10% 15% 35%
  34. 34. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) 100% Value of Context Value of Experience 75% 50% Value of Meta-Content 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  35. 35. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist New Value: Meta-Content *aka Data • User ratings & recommendations • User reviews • User tagging and annotating • User bookmarking • User sharing / forwarding • User editing / remixing • User republishing
  36. 36. The new Content Economy: the User is a major force Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  37. 37. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  38. 38. The Solution Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  39. 39. The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ~1910 + = + = ~2009?
  40. 40. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist P e r m i s s i o n . E n g a g e m e n t . C o n v e r s a t i o n . T h e F u t u r e .
  41. 41. Next Generation Advertising Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  42. 42. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist F o r g e t A d v e r t i s i n g a s w e k n o w i t . R e i n v e n t .
  43. 43. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
  44. 44. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Freemium
  45. 45. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized the solution is to offer valuable intangibles: 1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery 2. Personalization - tailored just for you... ʻMeCastʼ 3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance 4. Authenticity - making sure itʼs the real thing 5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however 6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging 7. Community (i.e. the Tribes) 8. Findability & Curation
  46. 46. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e Yes... we do! http://www.flickr.com/photos/bip/
  47. 47. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist To summarize
  48. 48. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thanks for your attention! TALK BACK: ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com ★ twitter.com/gleonhard ★ facebook: gleonhard ★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com ★ Thought-Stream at www.gerdstream.com

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