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Digital Transformation: the future of business, commerce and technology (Futurist Gerd Leonhard)

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Digital transformation is no longer a key challenge for only the music, media and publishing industries. Next in line are banking / financial services, education, health, government, tourism etc. These slides outline the key foresights I have discovered in the last 10+ talks on this topic. Read more on my blog at http://www.futuristgerd.com/category/digital-transformation/

If you enjoy my slideshares please take a look at my new book “Technology vs Humanity” http://www.techvshuman.com or buy it via Amazon http://gerd.fm/globalTVHamazon

More at http://www.futuristgerd.com or www.gerdleonhard.de
Download all of my videos and PDFs at http://www.gerdcloud.net

About my new book: are you ready for the greatest changes in recent human history? Futurism meets humanism in Gerd Leonhard’s ground-breaking new work of critical observation, discussing the multiple Megashifts that will radically alter not just our society and economy but our values and our biology. Wherever you stand on the scale between technomania and nostalgia for a lost world, this is a book to challenge, provoke, warn and inspire.

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Digital Transformation: the future of business, commerce and technology (Futurist Gerd Leonhard)

  1. 1. ' - We now are at a pivot point Ix, TRANSFORMA ION 6 Now Number of people (billions) 8.0 70 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 ch. .w than yours (and what to do about . :) Global population and Internet users,2000-2020 2 Global < population 2 Internet users 2000 2010 2020 lftl
  2. 2. The speed of change is mind—heggling Facebook Is a Must for Brands Around the World Percentage of brands present on the following platforms (June 2014) facebook. A l 100.0% 96.3% Youfii ii; 94.2% fijlwew ' 90.8% ~ A 79.1% rp, -,. ge, .eg1 ‘ 75.4% C6) §ZE? ;§ . 59-7% v A 44.0% YOU —il_§§, i‘- f 39.5% tumblr. 293% @ ® (9 ‘F332 brands tmstatistachms fiourte: I2
  3. 3. Powerful new intermediaries based on exponential technologies: SoLoMo. BigData+A| How Facebook Is Changing the Way Its Users Consume Journalism By RAVI SOMAIYAOCT 26. 2014 Photo Credit Sam Mancheslerffhe New York Times MENLO PAFIK, Calil. — Many of the people who read this article will do so because Greg Marra, 26, a Facebook engineer, calculated that it was the kind oi thing they might enjoy l/ lr Marra's team designs the code that drives Facebooks News Feed the stream ot updates, photographs, videos and stories that users see. He lS also last becoming one ot the most influential people in the news business. Facebook now has a tilth ot the world — about 1.3 billion people — logging on at least monthly. it drives up to 20 percent ot trattir: to news sites, according to figures trom the analytics company Simplefieach. On mobile devices, the lastest-growing source of readers, the percentage is even higher, SimpleReach says, and continues to increase.
  4. 4. Thinking exponentially and ‘digitally native’ becomes the key to future success LINEAR vs. EXPONENTIAL EXPONENTIAL I4EOZn DISRUPTION I LINEAR Ill 0 From the hook ‘Exponential Organizations‘ -I-I M E
  5. 5. Exponential increases in the sheer velocity of change MARKET CAP TO A BILLION 20 Y E A R 1 0 S 8 6 4 2 TYPICAL FACEBOOK USER SNAPCHAT FORs‘3$NE (1004) (2009) (201 1) 6000 E TESLA 1'5 PP OC US R FT COMPANY (1998I)' (2003) w’: ;009A) u('2.012) ' From the book ‘Exponential Organizations‘ CO M PA N Y ( fg u n d i n 9 ye 3 r) W
  6. 6. Don't be mistaken just because truly intelligent technology was mostly pretty foolish until now nnT. : 00101 o 1 o L o o L‘ o. . lDD 0 )alOl r L o L Ol Now 66 I think I have alcohol poisoning what do I do 99 I found 7 liquor stores fairly close to you: Garver Street 12th Avenue Thunderbird Liquors 1 miles l l”3‘o lE¢l. W.’ West Main Street Cellar Wine & Spirits ‘] miles M / I . f» Q Ifiui&. u'o
  7. 7. Gradually th 3iXPOi‘lEI*! T|AL --—-—- ur 1 - , .- up. ‘ , Avocado ; 154‘ V Potatoes 1 _ K ’ Chicken _l7-I ‘ Crackers ‘ ‘ 4 - Yogurt , . ' Pasta “W — _ H, ' >7. 1‘ 1 w. I . . V , . Loading 1 J ‘ , . Grocery shopping with Google Glass en suddenly. .. 2 chatfiots talking to each other |7ISRUPT|0i“-I '. |i~! EAR
  8. 8. Dramatic (r)evolution of business models as a result of digitization, automation, virtualization. dematerialization. fragmentation and decentralization (ouch) The _ Economlst I BIQIB I III
  9. 9. MOBILE SociAL M2M IoTI| oE AI BIG DATA ! I’i! ‘i‘{lr"I , if . ii’ ' 1 mpact on: I I Business Logic, --—’ evenue Models 5.: x C V, _ roduct Development 7 ustomer Relationships 3
  10. 10. ED
  11. 11. The coming information. data and ‘knowledge’ explosion je Exponential Growth Linear Growth K I I otno. o—§o: }: Time (Historical) je Sense-making. relevance. filtering. curation. .. becomes a huge business Figure 1 - The Knowtedge Doubling Curve E
  12. 12. Industry definitions and borders are dissolving Q - £20 facebook facebook amagon payments
  13. 13. ._, . li I ' la IJ i I I L . L . M ll .4. E file I M i L I a V7 l . ,. l.| __ii I . . I C ii. .
  14. 14. (El . . __ “__Everythi_ng - 'Sc'3?. f.‘; '.1IL". ?‘ - ' Ritelligent W- ea -time 0 Customizable Multi-Platform _ 3,: * ‘- CI %
  15. 15. wireless Dual Band Mesh Transceiver App Based Wireless Control RC BA Notification (indicator light) Digital street sign * ' EVENT —>v _(Tl5ARKW Facade lighting * (Color Changing) Environmental CBRNE Sensors * Seismic Sensors Water Detection * * Optional Features Push to “Blue eme —sn’i‘ II I‘ B ‘I V’ Styles from tradi contemporary aw “Smart Grid" Street Light ~ Photocell control 0 o-100% dimming - 0n~demand light levels Concealed Placement Speaker (CPS) m - Music - Announcements - Alerts Image Sensor * 0 Proximity sensors - Pedestrian counter Digital Signage " 0 Way finding - Traffic direction - Alert notification 0 Civic information 0 Revenue generation via advertising 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Share of total devices 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Computer network equipment ' Entertainment and media equipment White and household goods Heating, air oonditioning and control systems %
  16. 16. Dnline-Dffline convergence: all is real-life now! THIS controls THAT Have your house welcome you home this winter. Gérd
  17. 17. I”7" / I "7 I $3" {S I ”: ;A I I I . . 5. r I5 / .1 I” I i «L ‘ ' y i / ‘ ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ssssss sr
  18. 18. Various kinds of will become the new normal
  19. 19. Consumers as_well as businesses now have increasingly abundant choices ED
  20. 20. Scarcity ends. abundance increases almost everywhere
  21. 21. Anything anytime anywhere at much lower cost
  22. 22. Welcome to the information. knowledge and experience society Eil
  23. 23. mom I
  24. 24. .2 . . , . , . . , . , I. r. fimll , -.. H,. ,¢. .H, .,w, ., . . ii I i I i . _ ' i ivdimiviiuidn ~. i:. .ll. Ti-W1 Source Flickr: htjp: //www. flickr. oomIpholns/ ljh| ackwe| IIS328104471t . _
  25. 25. 4 key consumerl customer (e)evolutions: user control explodes. empowerment everywhere. loss of lock-in. waves of disruption » , . mama-z~.4 1:. I. .5‘. -rs‘ FEM FAILt: ‘s. - 3‘ . . § i’. -'—»'. a!: .'av“, ;r. r.Jewr. ;;.9 4“ r 'I/ v 1- . ‘ill! l[Ii Mo ~e. . , w. a-mark mg‘: ' I, 7 ‘S ' ' W . W ‘'C/ ‘ " ' "'5 t| iiir1l ‘ ‘ < r(*~ N - seam-m. ' '*‘ ‘ ’ ' -’ V » " i/ ‘»'miitlNl“‘ - -~. new-at ' 1: ' I .4uuli ul Ilia mciti i . ‘mm. M”
  26. 26. *““‘*““°*%%» An accelerating dilemma . ,.a: «:»««~«r~W~F~'~ -J‘. _ N -A , r 4- *‘ . . 4" -ax’ : » 1-” Increasing. . . ‘. 9CF935i"9- - - User control ff Revenue I Unit Empowerment am’ e ARPU Abundance ‘% Margin Transparency » bit to Independence Velocity A A Cntrl v/ -« W3 35 volatility complexity '1" H‘ ambiguity
  27. 27. Almost everything that can he digitised or automated. .. will he
  28. 28. Dramatic Evolution in Human—Machine ‘Relationships’ . -, LA 00000000000000 0000000000000 00000000000 0000000 000 a00000oooo ‘, ..000000 0000000 000 H, .. ¢+¢o+<-o¢¢ fiat >04 47' .0 run sncoun -, ‘ MACHINE nor: I EBIKBRYNIHLFSSDN 43 ANDREW MEAFEE
  29. 29. “Please don’t hate me, but my job is to take your job. ” , iii
  30. 30. "We will be surrounded by computational power. So for average people. for average users and consumers. you will be living in a world where you are essentially living in a computer. where you are surrounded by intelligence" reuters. com Oct 29 2013 Brian David Johnson INTEL Futurist ssssss sr
  31. 31. Human—Machine Evolutions: Type. Speak. Gesture. Blink. Thin! <?
  32. 32. Soon. really immersive technologies will even more dramatically change what we can ‘see’ and ‘experience’
  33. 33. " 4 and . vi. ‘ ~ 3 E». :"- ‘ Wewiell need to re-rframezwe . . B‘; -. '-M»: A r- I ' . "‘7. ; ,4. »"are. what we do. i :5 “Successful disrupters are .1 " i’ Q people who are capable of an f active imagination. They begin 0 , - . reimagining their world by reframing the problem inaway r no one hadframeditbefore”
  34. 34. internet users Mobile. Mobile. Mobile. Mobile. Mobile. Mobile. And again. .. 2014: YEAR OF THE Mobile Revolution MOBILE INTERNET USE WILL OVERTAKE DESKTOPS THIS YEAR. 2000 1600 1200 800 400 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  35. 35. ”“Proactively i Delightiiig Customers ‘ earns trust, which earns more business from those customers, even in new business arenas” Jeff Bezos
  36. 36. .. .as marketing and a Focus on better signals not more noise * vertising becomes content "‘ n1viA'rioiv E. __a; :“--§§ZBRANn CORPORATE cn2.e. ,_g, ;-, -;, -_-~ _m_, _;_ = -=: r.: o-n—. PUBLIsHING SALESi '_ ; a.mm. ... 2 E way. -—-- NOISE Incoming data / // // (Information / // // overload! ) / // // SIGNAL Ml
  37. 37. Many things that are not easily digitizable will become increasingly valuable
  38. 38. No matter what your business. strive for creating an A . ‘ ; ;;; ;; sr
  39. 39. Perfecting {use our) , .>l. m.n. ..-via. . 1.. .”. .u. ... ». Luiiu*iIi'iILi; . . Briiigiluuurxlmldmllvvxmiul . R(ih~I; {IliIl’ Main. -Mb. . -nnmmmi. nun mum Siinrrely. - +nn»n. .u. ilk‘ pnu'| .i. ... gi. .g. .,» In . i. ... -. Kiwt u I will I in I n. " Mini m. mmm. Nun . ~ . oic2.1criMe«l m. lim. », ... .m Il| .1iyl'I7ii: I~[V‘. IA Iifiilik IIlII'iiV‘I~ ‘= - . mm. i.» ~| im‘I>n, l. .,. ... ,.»mi. . i. . . . “l'I1l'Yh('(iV| “Il)illIl‘lHlIVVfllIll(Ll)iI)III4NL4I «linililixui» - Pcopleamhxinaied bvmy leslmand my Ilc~ inn. i». l.m. ,i. ... ..u. ».. r.. .M«-ii. genzul publir . ..ui. i only time . . p. .s. x.l. - t'ilt‘(I. uL'. tlIl§, vii. m . ..i. im. .u. ii Tm»'i, xviuy. il . .mi. .«i Ii-slzuvim-nlnuii >. ..uii. .i. i (' mi Elon Musk 4. Repiy +3 Reiweet t Favorite Ad taken out In Pnlo Alto Daily by two Model 5 owners IS ngm. Many oi the suggestions will be implemented soon Butter
  40. 40. ‘‘I call this managed dissa'tis'fac'tion. The traditional entertainment ecosystem is built on it. and it's a totally artificial concept” Reed Hastings, Netflix CED, liI2lI13 via i1uartz. com 7 T ; 'rI_: ":—‘I-, -i, :A; ,‘. ,l 1 @- v v-= """ = " = : ‘v" ir‘I'I= . -. 1*. - ‘ ', ‘ . [lox V . y_‘. ,0‘, 1‘ ‘ V‘ v . V, ‘ ll . “' ‘V ‘ I . Netflix subscribers from 03 2011 to 012013 in millions [7 Domestic Streaming International Streaming F Domestic DVD I5 E Awesonie catalogue _. AIvvuuJuu (Dt. rIt3t. n(3u1C)i. ri iliiigili 032011 042011 012012 022012 032012 042012 0120135 -_! .
  41. 41. THE END COMP ADVAN Ii'ii; i (IllIIiiIi‘l' . ii'iI| ‘IlliI
  42. 42. r Actionable Local Timeliness Investigative Relevance htovelty Serendipity E papa, Context § _£ Digital _ 1 paper Aggregauon Originality Personalization W ' INTERFACES msigm phone w Tablet Filtering El A, ,,. ,., ,,-.5 Opinion Tangibility _ Home BLT‘ Synthesis _ entertainment Desk comp uter Visualizatior Community Design '5 I 3,3,“, Reputation _ Aesthetic cumtion Idenmy Validation Ease of use Q; - Futurist _~. *,‘. ‘t FUTURE ' Media slratecv nossanw 3N . Entrepreneur " EXPI. RATI N ' Tho! -KIM leadership whiten! nblished underacreadve Coriuni “ . Key. -woe 5,933" 5‘ NETW RK - Scenario planning Attribufion-9iueAli‘ke 2.5 nee WWW. lO: ".‘. S¢1“9SOlI£0 fl www. futureexploration. net
  43. 43. Transform your business by adding new ‘digitally native’ values around the core. Use “fail fast. fail cheap. try again" approach. ProfitableC°r°sandR°inventi°n Highly profitable Lower margin Subsidized core activities activities A I Hardware, especially Other hardware, OS X, iOS, iWork, iLife, pp e the iPhone iTunes, iC| oud iMessage Carriers Voice, SMS Data DeVi§. es' Voi(. :ema“' rrectories Display ads in news Facebook Other ad products feed Google Search advertising Display advertising . Cl d, L ' , Xb MICrOSOf‘t Office, Windows Cu Umla OX Surface, Bing Source: Jackdaw Research
  44. 44. T Return on llllll «lll«ll[i? redefining Rol lll. A
  45. 45. communications. media. ' l. government. .. Liquid everything: pg commerce. f' | |1a|1C| a
  46. 46. amazon. com . /7 Spend today $37.60 $197.30 l Predicted purchases Romance Novels Amazon Recommends Me Before You The Girl You Left Behind
  47. 47. -. ivacy . ' Id’ matters 393", ,l, .Z. Pr yes, not being 5“ Privacy is the ability of a in iv . F eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee or information mess. ‘ll be a hllde W5 about themselves 2 thereby r I thems I ele The bound nd c ' onsidere
  48. 48. Pursuing humanness allowing ‘inefficiency') Using technology (driving efficiency)
  49. 49. The future of business: algorithms and ‘humarithms' acceptance mlevante trust BN2!“ V ~ I. 'fQ‘§$ EXT ‘CY grief SONOW sadness hostility deieclion gloominesx "'"‘°V‘"“‘ pensrvem; -ss aversion dial. kc boredom mow
  50. 50. Don't waste your current runway to the future! ; ;;; ;;; sr
  51. 51. city Unorthodoxy Collaboration I a ti I i t y uncertainty c VUCA y complexity 9 a b i u i ty / / .—-——

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