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Greening O ur Built Wo rld
    Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
GEI Investment Po rtfo lio



                                       JASPER WIND




                   Dummuies Windfarm Huntly Ltd. (UK)
                       Western Bio-Energy Ltd (UK)


                                                        Green
                   Wind                                 Buildings &
Solar
                                                        Efficiency

           Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Int ernat io nal Rat ing St andards – TO O LS




           Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Scores are tallied for
                           different aspects of
                           efficiency and design
                           in appropriate
                           categories.
LEADERSHIP in
ENERGY and
                           For instance, LEED
ENVIRONMENTAL
                           assesses in detail:
DESIGN
                           1. Site Planning
A leading-edge
                           2. Water Management
system for certifying
                           3. Energy
DESIGN,
                           Management
CONSTRUCTION, &
                           4. Material Use
OPERATIONS
                           5. Indoor
of green buildings
                              Environmental
                              Air Quality
                           6. Innovation &
                              Design Process


                   Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Wentworth Commons - Chicago, IL
Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 20 0 1
                                         (Fossil Fuel Combustion O nly)
                         25.00




                                                                                                     United States
                         20.00

                                                                                                     Netherlands          Canada     Australia
Tons of CO2 per person




                         15.00
                                                                                                           Belgium

                                                      California     Denmark

                         10.00
                                                                                          Germany
                                                   Japan               Austria
                                                                                                            New
                                                                                                                                S. Korea
                                                                                  Italy                     Zealand
                                     Switzerland
                                                                  France
                          5.00

                                                                                                                Mexico


                          0.00
                              0.00        0.10     0.20    0.30            0.40           0.50      0.60        0.70     0.80      0.90      1.00
                                                                   intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar)


                                                           Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Scope 1 2, & 3 GHG Emissions
       ,
   Scope 1: Direct
   Scope 2: Electricity Indirect
   Scope 3: Other Indirect




                                         Source: World Resources Institute

                 Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
GHG Emission Reduction Potential by Sector




IPCC assessment of emission reduction potential in different sectors depending on
the carbon market price
                      Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Efficiency O ppo rtunities Increase




         Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Study/ Bo o k Spo nso rs

    American Council On Renewable Energy
    American Institute of Architects
    American Public Health Association
    BOMA International
    Enterprise Community Partners
    Federation of American Scientists
    National Association of State Energy Officials
    National Association of Realtors
    Real Estate Roundtable
    US Green Building Council
    World Green Building Council

     Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Co st o f Building Green

                                     Additional cost to build green:
                                   Evidence from 146 green buildings
                             60
# of buildings in data set




                             50    Median in the
                                                                             Public
                                   data set: <2%
                                                                             misperception:
                                   added cost
                             40                                              17% added cost*



                             30

                             20

                             10

                             0
                                  1%

                                  2%

                                  3%

                                  4%

                                  5%

                                  6%

                                  7%

                                  8%

                                  9%


                             10 %

                             11 %

                             12 %

                             13 %

                             15 %

                             16 %

                             17 %

                             18 %
                                  9%
                                10


                                  1

                                  2

                                  3

                                  4

                                  6

                                  7

                                  8
                               0-

                               1-

                               2-

                               3-

                               4-

                               5-

                               6-

                               7-

                               8-




                               -1

                               -1

                               -1

                               -1

                               -1

                               -1

                               -1

                               -1
                              9-




*2007 opinion survey by World Business C ouncil for
Sustainable Development                            Range       of reported premiums


                                           Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Green Building Co st Premium

                                   Green premium frequency by LEED level
number of buildings in data




                              90
                              80
                              70
                              60                                           certified
                              50
           set




                                                                           silver
                              40                                           gold
                              30                                           platinum
                              20
                              10
                               0
                                    2%

                                    4%

                                    6%

                                    8%




                                   2%

                                   4%

                                   6%

                                   8%
                                     %
                                  10
                                 0-

                                 2-

                                 4-

                                 6-




                                -1

                                -1

                                -1

                                -1
                               8-

                              10

                              12

                              14

                              16
                                        range of reported premiums



                                         Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
G reen Building Benefit s:
        Increased Rent , Sales & O ccupancy


                                             LEED Certified
  1st   Quarter 2008       Non-LEED             Offices          Difference             % Change

    Occupancy rates           88%                 92%               4%                      5%

           Rent ($/SF)        $31                 $42               $11                    35%

Property value ($/SF)         $267                $438             $171                    64%




  1st Quarter 2008       Non-Energy star   Energy Star Offices   Difference             % Change

   Occupancy Rates            88%                 92%               4%                      5%

           Rent ($/SF)        $28                 $31               $3                     11%

    Sale Price ($/SF)         $227                $288              $61                    27%

                                                                              Source: CoStar analysis, 2008



                                Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Co sts and Benefits
                                    Costs and Benefits of Green Buildings:
                      Present value of 20 years of estimated impacts based on study data
                                   set collected from recent green buildings
                             Green School                       Green Office
       $12
                                                                                       increased building cost
       $10
                                                                                       water savings
        $8                                                                             direct energy savings
$/Sf




        $6

        $4
                                                                                     Additional benefits
        $2                                                                           not estimated:
                                                                                     +Productivity and student
        $0                                                                           performance
                                                                                     +Property Value impacts
                      t




                                                            t
                                         nt




                                                                                nt
                                                                                     +Indirect water systems
                    os




                                                          os
                                          a




                                                                                 a
                 lc




                                                        lc
                                       up




                                                                              up     impacts
                a




                                                      a
                                    cc




                                                                           cc
             on




                                                   on




                                                                                     +Brand
                                   /o




                                                                          /o
            ti




                                                   ti
                                    r




                                                                           r
         di




                                                di
                                 ne




                                                                        ne



                                                                                     +Operations and
       ad




                                              ad
                             ow




                                                                    ow




                                                                                     Maintenance savings
                             o




                                                                    o
                             t




                                                                   t




                                                                                     +Embodied energy savings
                          it




                                                                it
                         f




                                                                f
                      ne




                                                             ne
                    be




                                                          be




                                        Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Costs and Benefits of Green Buildings: Present value of 20
          years of estimated impacts based on study data set and
                       synthesis of relevant research*
                                Green School                                   Green Office
         $18                                                                                            increased building cost

         $16                                                                                            health
                                                                                                        water savings
         $14
                                                                                                        energy savings
         $12
                                                                                                        indirect energy savings
         $10
 $/Sf




                                                                                                        employment
          $8                                                                                            emissions
          $6
          $4                                                                                          Additional benefits not
                                                                                                      estimated:
          $2                                                                                          +Productivity and student
          $0                                                                                          performance
                                                                                                      +Property value impacts
                                      t




                                                                                    t
                                                    y




                                                                                                  y
                                    an




                                                                                  an
                     t




                                                                   t
                   os




                                                                 os


                                                                                                      +Indirect water systems
                                                 et




                                                                                               et
                                   p




                                                                                 p
                                                 ci




                                                                                               ci
                  lc




                                                                lc
                                cu




                                                                              cu
                                                so




                                                                                              so
                                                                                                      impacts
             na




                                                           na
                                c




                                                                              c
                             /o




                                                                           /o
                                            to




                                                                                          to
           tio




                                                          tio




                                                                                                      +Brand improvements
                            r




                                                                          r
                                          fit




                                                                                        fit
                         ne




                                                                       ne
         di




                                                        di
                                       ne




                                                                                     ne
                                                                                                      +Operations and
        ad




                                                      ad
                        ow




                                                                      ow
                                    be




                                                                                  be

                                                                                                      maintenance savings
                   to




                                                                 to
                  fit




                                                                fit




                                                                                                      +Embodied energy savings
              ne




                                                            ne
             be




                                                           be




*There is significantly greater uncertainty, and less consensus around
methodologies for estimating health and societal benefits.


                                           Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Co mcast Building
Libert y Pro pe rt y Trust
Brand Impact o f Greening

Gr eening Impacts: Thr ee Sources of
Br and Equity

• Increased brand awareness (e.g., free media
  exposure)
• Greater preference due to specific attributes
  (e.g., better IEQ)
• General non-attribute preference (e.g.,
  association with quality, lower risk)


           Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Advanced energy savings and green premium:
                                                18 buildings from the study data set

                         140%                                                                   14%

                         120%                                                                   12%
% energy use reduction




                                                                                                                        energy




                                                                                                      % green premium
                         100%                                                                   10%                     savings
                                                                                                                        (yellow bars
                         80%                                                                    8%                      indicate the
                                                                                                                        use of
                         60%                                                                    6%                      onsite
                                                                                                                        renewables)
                         40%                                                                    4%
                                                                                                                        green
                                                                                                                        premium
                         20%                                                                    2%

                          0%                                                                    0%
                                1   2   3   4   5   6   7    8   9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
                                                            Building ID #




                                                        Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Po t e nt ial Value O f 2 0 Ye ars O f CO 2 Re duc t io ns
          in G re e n v. Co nve nt io nal Building s


                                                 Potential value of CO2 reduction in green offices

                                       25
   NPV of 20 yrs of reduction ($/sf)




                                       20



                                       15
                                                                                                Value of CO2 reduction
                                                                                                Indirect Energy price impact
                                                                                                Direct energy savings
                                       10



                                       5



                                       0
                                            $5              $30                 $100
                                                       CO2 price pe r ton



                                                  Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Califo rnia Energ y Co st Driven By
                           St andard A / C

                    Standard Air Conditioner KW vs. TDV "total cost"

            8                                                                             45


            7                                                                             40


                                                                                          35
            6

                                                                                          30
                   24 Hour Total TDV "Cost" = 72
            5
KW Demand




                                                                                               TDV "Cost"
                                                                                          25
            4
                                                                                          20

            3
                                                                                          15

            2
                                                                                          10


            1                                                                             5


            0                                                                             0
             12:00 AM              6:00 AM                  12:00 PM            6:00 PM

                                                      Time of Day
                                                   Standard KW     TDV Weight


                                    Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
The Co st o f Meeting the Peak




       Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Residential Lo ad




Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
2 0 0 7 Pric e s, Sho wing Inc reme nt Sinc e 19 9 9




               Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Climate Change is Happening




      Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Rapid Cle ae nt e c h Inve st me nt Inc re ase Re quire d


                       180      Total Global New Clean Energy Investment                                                        Estimated Clean Energy Annual Investment to 2030,
                       160                                                                                                                          US$ Billions
                                                                                                                               600
                       140                                                               5%                                                                                                               542
                                                                                        Growth                                                                                       515
Amounts ($ Billions)




                                                                                                                               500
                       120
                                                                                                                                                                 4oc




                                                                                                        Amounts ($ Billions)
                                                                         59%
                       100                                              Growth                                                 400                               379                2.5oc

                                                                                                                                                                                                          2oc
                       80
                                                                                                                               300
                                                       58%
                       60                             Growth                                                                                 229

                                                                                                                               200
                       40
                                       68%
                       20             Growth                                                                                   100


                        0
                                                                                                                                 0
                               2004            2005              2006            2007            2008
                                                                                                                                     WEO 2008 - Reference WEO 2008 - 550ppm   NEF Global Futures   WEO 2008 - 450ppm
                                                                                                                                                                                    2008

                                                                                                                                      ~x c Equivalent increase in global temperature per scenario




                                                               Shortfall is potentially in excess of $350 billion per year

                                                                                                                                                             Source: IEA WEO 2008, New Energy Finance

                                                                          Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010                                                                                                              25
G lo bal Cleant ech Invest ment Landscape




           Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
G lo bal Cleant ech St imulus Co mpo nent s




            Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
What is yo ur invest ment t hesis?


   Common view is: Big problem, one grid, national issues (security,
    trade deficit, employment, global warming)
   So assumption is: centralized answer eg nuclear, coal CCS
   But slow, uncertain and v costly
   Real solution is opposite. Its decentralized, ie telephony and IT
   We have the technologies.. We need to scale and deploy them
   No silver bullet.. lots of technologies and niches




                     Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
So me Dubio us Invest ment Theses


 Five 9s/ reliability.. microturbines, flywheels
    Benefits must be real and cheaper than alternatives
 Hydrogen/fuel cells..
    Infrastructure threshold
    Environmental math must work
 Ethanol.. Do the math on energy, politics of food to fuel

 Nanotechnology? Ca. $1 billion in 1000 firms. Over-
  investment, exits?



                Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Perfo rmance Co mpariso n


                               0.60                                                Tinted

                               0.50
                                                                                              Low-e2
                               0.40
Solar Heat Gain Coefficient




                               0.30                                Tinted Low-e2
                               0.20          Reflective

                               0.10

                               0.00
                                             10%      20%    30%    40%     50%         60%   70%      80%

                              Visible Light Transmission


                                                     Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
FERC REPO RT: Demand Respo nse Po t ent ial




                                                  source: FERC Assessment of Demand
                                                   Response & Advanced Metering 2009
                                              assumptions: smart meters, dynamic pricing
                                                           default, enabling technologies


            Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Ice Bear® Distributed Energy Storage
                      6 hour on peak resource

       Insulates Utility Assets From Hot Weather Related Events




Low Capacity Factor                          High Capacity Factor


                 Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Lo w Co st & Po we r De nsit y : Bro adSt ar Wind
   The AeroCam Type I turbine is a low-noise, low vibration 12kW cycloidial turbine that can be deployed on a
    rooftop or ground mounted at point of use

      •   Unlike many small wind systems, self-starting The AeroCam’s technological advantage is that it maximizes
          aerodynamic lift forces that provide driving torque and power production

   Superior power density in relation to other distributed generation turbines and solar PV

   Power Density = Amount of Power Produced X Length of Turbine’s Frontal Cross Section

      •   Footprint of AeroCam turbine is 1/4 that of a same-sized solar array




                                       Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
CO 2 Impact

                                                             1990 Building CO2
                        Green Scenario Emissions             Emissions
                       With Additional Policy Actions

                                                             BAU CO2 Emissions
          3500

          3000
                                                             Green - Efficiency
          2500                                               and All Renewables
                                                             (50% offsite
MMT CO2




          2000                                               reduction)
                                                             Green - Efficiency and
          1500                                               Renewables (Full)

          1000
                                                             Green - Greener
           500                                               Conventional Energy
                                                             Supply
             0
                                                             Obama Administration
              2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050   Goal

                           Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
G reening = Wealt h and Jo bs Creat io n


                     NPV of Net Benefits of BAU and Green

                $1,200

                $1,000

                 $800
                                                                                      BAU
                 $600                                                                 Green
     Billions




                 $400

                 $200

                   $0
                          Green    NPV only    Plus     Plus      Plus       Plus
                ($200)   Premium     direct   w ater   health   societal   societal
                                    energy                      energy      CO2
                ($400)
                          Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
Fo r mo re Info rmat io n:


• www.islandpress.org/Kats
• Greening Our Built World is on
  Amazon (please write a 5 star
  review!!!)
• www.goodenergies.com



       Thank you

                 Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010

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Greening Our Built World Summary

  • 1. Greening O ur Built Wo rld Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 2. GEI Investment Po rtfo lio JASPER WIND Dummuies Windfarm Huntly Ltd. (UK) Western Bio-Energy Ltd (UK) Green Wind Buildings & Solar Efficiency Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 3. Int ernat io nal Rat ing St andards – TO O LS Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 4. Scores are tallied for different aspects of efficiency and design in appropriate categories. LEADERSHIP in ENERGY and For instance, LEED ENVIRONMENTAL assesses in detail: DESIGN 1. Site Planning A leading-edge 2. Water Management system for certifying 3. Energy DESIGN, Management CONSTRUCTION, & 4. Material Use OPERATIONS 5. Indoor of green buildings Environmental Air Quality 6. Innovation & Design Process Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 5. Wentworth Commons - Chicago, IL
  • 6. Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 20 0 1 (Fossil Fuel Combustion O nly) 25.00 United States 20.00 Netherlands Canada Australia Tons of CO2 per person 15.00 Belgium California Denmark 10.00 Germany Japan Austria New S. Korea Italy Zealand Switzerland France 5.00 Mexico 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar) Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 7. Scope 1 2, & 3 GHG Emissions ,  Scope 1: Direct  Scope 2: Electricity Indirect  Scope 3: Other Indirect Source: World Resources Institute Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 8. GHG Emission Reduction Potential by Sector IPCC assessment of emission reduction potential in different sectors depending on the carbon market price Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 9. Efficiency O ppo rtunities Increase Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 10. Study/ Bo o k Spo nso rs  American Council On Renewable Energy  American Institute of Architects  American Public Health Association  BOMA International  Enterprise Community Partners  Federation of American Scientists  National Association of State Energy Officials  National Association of Realtors  Real Estate Roundtable  US Green Building Council  World Green Building Council Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 11. Co st o f Building Green Additional cost to build green: Evidence from 146 green buildings 60 # of buildings in data set 50 Median in the Public data set: <2% misperception: added cost 40 17% added cost* 30 20 10 0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10 % 11 % 12 % 13 % 15 % 16 % 17 % 18 % 9% 10 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 0- 1- 2- 3- 4- 5- 6- 7- 8- -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 9- *2007 opinion survey by World Business C ouncil for Sustainable Development Range of reported premiums Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 12. Green Building Co st Premium Green premium frequency by LEED level number of buildings in data 90 80 70 60 certified 50 set silver 40 gold 30 platinum 20 10 0 2% 4% 6% 8% 2% 4% 6% 8% % 10 0- 2- 4- 6- -1 -1 -1 -1 8- 10 12 14 16 range of reported premiums Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 13. G reen Building Benefit s: Increased Rent , Sales & O ccupancy LEED Certified 1st Quarter 2008 Non-LEED Offices Difference % Change Occupancy rates 88% 92% 4% 5% Rent ($/SF) $31 $42 $11 35% Property value ($/SF) $267 $438 $171 64% 1st Quarter 2008 Non-Energy star Energy Star Offices Difference % Change Occupancy Rates 88% 92% 4% 5% Rent ($/SF) $28 $31 $3 11% Sale Price ($/SF) $227 $288 $61 27% Source: CoStar analysis, 2008 Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 14. Co sts and Benefits Costs and Benefits of Green Buildings: Present value of 20 years of estimated impacts based on study data set collected from recent green buildings Green School Green Office $12 increased building cost $10 water savings $8 direct energy savings $/Sf $6 $4 Additional benefits $2 not estimated: +Productivity and student $0 performance +Property Value impacts t t nt nt +Indirect water systems os os a a lc lc up up impacts a a cc cc on on +Brand /o /o ti ti r r di di ne ne +Operations and ad ad ow ow Maintenance savings o o t t +Embodied energy savings it it f f ne ne be be Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 15. Costs and Benefits of Green Buildings: Present value of 20 years of estimated impacts based on study data set and synthesis of relevant research* Green School Green Office $18 increased building cost $16 health water savings $14 energy savings $12 indirect energy savings $10 $/Sf employment $8 emissions $6 $4 Additional benefits not estimated: $2 +Productivity and student $0 performance +Property value impacts t t y y an an t t os os +Indirect water systems et et p p ci ci lc lc cu cu so so impacts na na c c /o /o to to tio tio +Brand improvements r r fit fit ne ne di di ne ne +Operations and ad ad ow ow be be maintenance savings to to fit fit +Embodied energy savings ne ne be be *There is significantly greater uncertainty, and less consensus around methodologies for estimating health and societal benefits. Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 16. Co mcast Building Libert y Pro pe rt y Trust
  • 17. Brand Impact o f Greening Gr eening Impacts: Thr ee Sources of Br and Equity • Increased brand awareness (e.g., free media exposure) • Greater preference due to specific attributes (e.g., better IEQ) • General non-attribute preference (e.g., association with quality, lower risk) Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 18. Advanced energy savings and green premium: 18 buildings from the study data set 140% 14% 120% 12% % energy use reduction energy % green premium 100% 10% savings (yellow bars 80% 8% indicate the use of 60% 6% onsite renewables) 40% 4% green premium 20% 2% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Building ID # Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 19. Po t e nt ial Value O f 2 0 Ye ars O f CO 2 Re duc t io ns in G re e n v. Co nve nt io nal Building s Potential value of CO2 reduction in green offices 25 NPV of 20 yrs of reduction ($/sf) 20 15 Value of CO2 reduction Indirect Energy price impact Direct energy savings 10 5 0 $5 $30 $100 CO2 price pe r ton Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 20. Califo rnia Energ y Co st Driven By St andard A / C Standard Air Conditioner KW vs. TDV "total cost" 8 45 7 40 35 6 30 24 Hour Total TDV "Cost" = 72 5 KW Demand TDV "Cost" 25 4 20 3 15 2 10 1 5 0 0 12:00 AM 6:00 AM 12:00 PM 6:00 PM Time of Day Standard KW TDV Weight Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 21. The Co st o f Meeting the Peak Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 22. Residential Lo ad Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 23. 2 0 0 7 Pric e s, Sho wing Inc reme nt Sinc e 19 9 9 Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 24. Climate Change is Happening Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 25. Rapid Cle ae nt e c h Inve st me nt Inc re ase Re quire d 180 Total Global New Clean Energy Investment Estimated Clean Energy Annual Investment to 2030, 160 US$ Billions 600 140 5% 542 Growth 515 Amounts ($ Billions) 500 120 4oc Amounts ($ Billions) 59% 100 Growth 400 379 2.5oc 2oc 80 300 58% 60 Growth 229 200 40 68% 20 Growth 100 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 WEO 2008 - Reference WEO 2008 - 550ppm NEF Global Futures WEO 2008 - 450ppm 2008 ~x c Equivalent increase in global temperature per scenario Shortfall is potentially in excess of $350 billion per year Source: IEA WEO 2008, New Energy Finance Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010 25
  • 26. G lo bal Cleant ech Invest ment Landscape Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 27. G lo bal Cleant ech St imulus Co mpo nent s Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 28. What is yo ur invest ment t hesis?  Common view is: Big problem, one grid, national issues (security, trade deficit, employment, global warming)  So assumption is: centralized answer eg nuclear, coal CCS  But slow, uncertain and v costly  Real solution is opposite. Its decentralized, ie telephony and IT  We have the technologies.. We need to scale and deploy them  No silver bullet.. lots of technologies and niches Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 29. So me Dubio us Invest ment Theses  Five 9s/ reliability.. microturbines, flywheels  Benefits must be real and cheaper than alternatives  Hydrogen/fuel cells..  Infrastructure threshold  Environmental math must work  Ethanol.. Do the math on energy, politics of food to fuel  Nanotechnology? Ca. $1 billion in 1000 firms. Over- investment, exits? Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 30. Perfo rmance Co mpariso n 0.60 Tinted 0.50 Low-e2 0.40 Solar Heat Gain Coefficient 0.30 Tinted Low-e2 0.20 Reflective 0.10 0.00 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Visible Light Transmission Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 31. FERC REPO RT: Demand Respo nse Po t ent ial source: FERC Assessment of Demand Response & Advanced Metering 2009 assumptions: smart meters, dynamic pricing default, enabling technologies Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 32. Ice Bear® Distributed Energy Storage 6 hour on peak resource Insulates Utility Assets From Hot Weather Related Events Low Capacity Factor High Capacity Factor Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 33. Lo w Co st & Po we r De nsit y : Bro adSt ar Wind  The AeroCam Type I turbine is a low-noise, low vibration 12kW cycloidial turbine that can be deployed on a rooftop or ground mounted at point of use • Unlike many small wind systems, self-starting The AeroCam’s technological advantage is that it maximizes aerodynamic lift forces that provide driving torque and power production  Superior power density in relation to other distributed generation turbines and solar PV  Power Density = Amount of Power Produced X Length of Turbine’s Frontal Cross Section • Footprint of AeroCam turbine is 1/4 that of a same-sized solar array Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 34. CO 2 Impact 1990 Building CO2 Green Scenario Emissions Emissions With Additional Policy Actions BAU CO2 Emissions 3500 3000 Green - Efficiency 2500 and All Renewables (50% offsite MMT CO2 2000 reduction) Green - Efficiency and 1500 Renewables (Full) 1000 Green - Greener 500 Conventional Energy Supply 0 Obama Administration 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Goal Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 35. G reening = Wealt h and Jo bs Creat io n NPV of Net Benefits of BAU and Green $1,200 $1,000 $800 BAU $600 Green Billions $400 $200 $0 Green NPV only Plus Plus Plus Plus ($200) Premium direct w ater health societal societal energy energy CO2 ($400) Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010
  • 36. Fo r mo re Info rmat io n: • www.islandpress.org/Kats • Greening Our Built World is on Amazon (please write a 5 star review!!!) • www.goodenergies.com Thank you Greg Kats, Capital –E, May 2010