Slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. If you continue browsing the site, you agree to the use of cookies on this website. See our User Agreement and Privacy Policy.

Slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. If you continue browsing the site, you agree to the use of cookies on this website. See our Privacy Policy and User Agreement for details.

Like this presentation? Why not share!

- 7A_4_Gps data collection setting fo... by GISRUK conference 1313 views
- Probability Concepts Applications by guest44b78 16344 views
- Ias 20 by Khalid Aziz 75054 views
- Elasticity+and+its+application by Khalid Aziz 86754 views
- PROBABILITY AND IT'S TYPES WITH RULES by Bhargavi Bhanu 40761 views
- Normal distribution and sampling di... by Mridul Arora 49392 views

No Downloads

Total views

1,094

On SlideShare

0

From Embeds

0

Number of Embeds

1

Shares

0

Downloads

0

Comments

0

Likes

1

No embeds

No notes for slide

- 1. 1<br />To vote or not to vote? <br />Investigating changes in the predicted probability of voter turnout when re-siting polling stations<br />Scott Orford <br />WISERD<br />Cardiff University<br />GISRUK 2010<br />
- 2. 2<br />Structure<br />Introduction<br />Micro-geographical factors that affect voter turnout<br />Brent case study <br />Binomial ML model<br />Predicting changes in turnout<br />Conclusions<br />
- 3. 3<br />Introduction<br />Concern over low turnout and the ‘democratic defict’<br />Turnout gap in GB largest of any Western liberal democracy (25 – 40 percentage points)<br />Factors influencing turnout at elections well known<br />Research tends to be election specific and not systematic <br />Little still known about importance of spatial and micro-geographical factors in a UK context<br />
- 4. 4<br />People usually have to vote in person at a designated polling station<br />Polling district boundaries and stations are determined by the council – administrative function<br />Not accountable to the boundary commission<br />Accessibility: “if possible, it needs to be close to where voters live and be fully accessible”<br />A review of polling districts and polling stations must take place at least once every four years<br />
- 5. 5<br />Possible factors when siting polling stations affect turnout<br />Distance<br />Morphology (compactness)<br />Voter density (compactness & distance)<br />Terrain<br />Ease of parking etc<br />Opportunities<br />How do these vary in different elections?<br />Rural/ suburban/inner-city differences (US research says there are)<br />
- 6. 6<br />Known factors influencing turnout<br /><ul><li>Individual factors (age, education, social class, occupation)
- 7. Political Knowledge (party identification, interest in campaign)
- 8. Civic Duty
- 9. Second-order elections (rationale choice theory)
- 10. Weather
- 11. Geographical factors</li></ul>Local campaigning<br />Marginality of seat (closeness of contest)<br />Population stability<br />Social composition “People who talk together vote together” (Pattie and Johnston) – clear evidence that conversation and context can influence voting behaviour<br />
- 12. 7<br />Constituencies and wards in the London <br />Borough of Brent, 2001<br />
- 13. 8<br />Max 32.2<br />Min 2.03<br />Mean 21.8<br />Std 4.41<br />N 115<br />Max 54.4<br />Min 3.82<br />Mean 36.2<br />Std 7.4<br />N 115<br />Max 67.21<br />Min 13.83<br />Mean 49.15<br />Std 7.27<br />N 115<br />
- 14. 9<br />Wards, polling districts and polling stations in the London Borough of Brent, 2001<br />
- 15. 10<br />Polling stations in each election<br />
- 16. 11<br />Table 2: Polling station context in each election<br />
- 17. 12<br />Euclidean versus network distance<br />
- 18. 13<br />
- 19. 14<br />100 metres<br />
- 20. 15<br />200 metres<br />
- 21. 16<br />300 metres<br />
- 22. 17<br />400 metres<br />
- 23. 18<br />500 metres<br />
- 24. 19<br />
- 25. 20<br />100 metres<br />
- 26. 21<br />200 metres<br />
- 27. 22<br />300 metres<br />
- 28. 23<br />400 metres<br />
- 29. 24<br />500 metres<br />
- 30. 25<br />Voter dispersion (density) measures<br />(combined measure of compactness and distance)<br />Euclidean distance measures (metres)<br />Percentage of postcodes in PD less than X metres from polling station<br />Where X is 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 750, 1000, 1250, and 1500<br />Road network distance measures (metres)<br />Percentage of postcodes in PD less than X metres from polling station<br />Where X is 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 900, 1000, 1250, 1500, 2000, and 2500<br />
- 31. 26<br />
- 32. 27<br />Model Specification<br />i = 1, …, 115 polling districts; <br />j = 1, …, 31 wards;<br />k = 1, …, 3 constituencies; <br />Dependent variable is the proportion of turnout at the polling district with postal voters removed<br />Model specification is binomial with a logit link<br />Estimated using second order predictive quasi-likelihood (PQL) in MLwiN 2.10<br />
- 33. 28<br />ML Models: non-density variables<br />
- 34. 29<br />Significance of voter density on turnout<br />
- 35. 30<br />Voter density estimates (network distance)<br />Election Maximum significance B-value T-stat<br />European: Density ND < 500m 0.040 3.08 <br />Local: Density ND < 600m 0.070 3.07<br />E.g. European and (Local) elections<br />If 50% of voters in a PD live within 500m (600m) of polling station, turnout increases by 2% (3.5%)<br />If 100% of voters in a PD live within 500m (600m) of polling station, turnout increases by 4% (7%)<br />
- 36. 31<br />
- 37. 32<br />
- 38. 33<br />
- 39. 34<br />
- 40. 35<br />
- 41. 36<br />
- 42. 37<br />Differences in the predicted probabilities of turnout by constituency and election at the locations of maximum, minimum and average voter densities<br />
- 43. 38<br />Percentage differences in the predicted probability of turnout at ward level when re-siting polling stations in the European election<br />
- 44. 39<br />Percentage differences in the predicted probability of turnout at ward level when re-siting polling stations in the local election<br />
- 45. 40<br />Percentage differences in the predicted probability of turnout at polling district level when re-siting polling stations in the European election<br />
- 46. 41<br />Percentage differences in the predicted probability of turnout at polling district level when re-siting polling stations in the local election<br />
- 47. 42<br />Percentage differences in the predicted probability of turnout at polling district level when re-siting polling stations at the maximum and minimum voter density locations for European and local elections<br />
- 48. 43<br />Conclusions<br />Supports idea of second order elections and rational choice theory of voting<br />Geographical factors are influential in lower salience elections<br />EEA 4 year review – perhaps examine polling station location with regards to accessibility and voter densities<br />Target certain polling districts and re-site polling station<br />Problem – trade-off between existing polling station building and portable polling stations (cost effectiveness)<br />New voting technologies may decrease numbers of polling stations and therefore increase accessibility and decrease turnout<br />

No public clipboards found for this slide

×
### Save the most important slides with Clipping

Clipping is a handy way to collect and organize the most important slides from a presentation. You can keep your great finds in clipboards organized around topics.

Be the first to comment