GIS Based Spatial Modelling for Improving the Sustainability of Aggregates Mineral Supply in the UK<br />Supervisors: Prof...
What are aggregates ? <br />Primary Aggregates<br /><ul><li>Crushed Rock
Land-won Sand &Gravel
Marine Sand & Gravel</li></li></ul><li>Mineral planning system in England<br />Plan-led system<br />	Demand forecasting - ...
  Regional Level
  Local Level</li></li></ul><li>Overview<br />construct GIS for consumption, supply and transport network of aggregates<br...
Methodology<br />Spatial Interaction Model <br />Network Analysis<br />Other GIS-T Techniques<br />Multi-criteria Evaluati...
Modelling the Aggregates Flows in England and Wales<br />Crushed Rock  inter-regional flows, 2005<br />
<ul><li>Data Preparation - estimating the demand for aggregates at small scale level</li></ul>Population at district level...
Data Preparation – supply apportionment and transport network<br />
Quarry 1<br />Client 1<br />Rail Depot 1<br />Client  3<br />Quarry 2<br />Client  4<br />Quarry 3<br />Client  2<br />Rai...
Railway Transport<br />Quarry 1(Rail linked)<br />Quarry 2 (Non-Rail linked)<br />Road Transport<br />Rail Depots<br />Dis...
<ul><li>Doubly Constrained Spatial Interaction Model</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Carbon emission calculation
Approach 1: Fixed Conversion Rate </li></ul>Tonne-kms   (Energy Consumption)  Carbon Emission <br />Approach 2: Transpor...
<ul><li>Calibrating </li></ul>TC = 40000<br />RC = 0.3<br />Beta = 5<br />
<ul><li>Modeling Result – Spatial Interaction Matrices</li></ul>Marine Sand & Gravel<br />Crushed Rock<br />Land-won Sand ...
Modeling Result – Key statistics<br />Observed<br />Modelled<br />SRMSE = 0.220      R-square = 0.996    (Land-won Sand & ...
<ul><li>Modeling Result – Carbon Emissions at Country Level</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Optimization – surface transport cos...
What-if Analyses<br /><ul><li>Scenario 1– London Olympic Park Project</li></li></ul><li>Aggregates flows to Newham, London...
Scenario 2 – Improving the sustainability of aggregates supply<br />RC=0.3<br />TC=40000<br />RC=0.13<br />TC=40000<br />R...
<ul><li>Variation of Carbon Emissions</li></ul>2005<br />2009<br />
Scenario 3 – Closing down biggest quarries<br />
Scenario 3 – Variation of CO2 Emissions <br />2005<br />2045<br />
What’s Next ?<br /><ul><li>Critical scenario settings
More sophisticated carbon emission model
Social-Economical Impact
Environmental Impact
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5A_3_GIS based spatial modelling for improving the sustainability of aggregates mineral supply in the uk

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  • The planning system being reviewed again!Planning White Paper – Planning for a Sustainable Future‘climate change considerations should be integrated into all spatial planning concerns,including transport, housing, economic growth and regeneration, water supply andwaste management, and not considered separately’We are committed to protecting and enhancing the environment and tackling climate change - one of the most serious threats facing us today ----- BGS
  • 5A_3_GIS based spatial modelling for improving the sustainability of aggregates mineral supply in the uk

    1. 1. GIS Based Spatial Modelling for Improving the Sustainability of Aggregates Mineral Supply in the UK<br />Supervisors: Prof. Mark Birkin, Prof. Graham Clarke, Ms. Fiona McEvoy, Mr. Andrew Bloodworth<br />Chengchao Zuo<br />School of Geography<br />University of Leeds<br />
    2. 2. What are aggregates ? <br />Primary Aggregates<br /><ul><li>Crushed Rock
    3. 3. Land-won Sand &Gravel
    4. 4. Marine Sand & Gravel</li></li></ul><li>Mineral planning system in England<br />Plan-led system<br /> Demand forecasting - <br /> Apportionment<br />Overview of the aggregates planning system<br />Hierarchical structure<br /><ul><li> National Level
    5. 5. Regional Level
    6. 6. Local Level</li></li></ul><li>Overview<br />construct GIS for consumption, supply and transport network of aggregates<br />build Spatial Interaction Model to represent aggregates flows (through rail, road or waterway)<br />evaluate environmental and social impact and sustainability (carbon footprint) of major infrastructure projects (e.g. London Olympic Park)<br />compare alternative policy scenarios for aggregates delivery<br />
    7. 7. Methodology<br />Spatial Interaction Model <br />Network Analysis<br />Other GIS-T Techniques<br />Multi-criteria Evaluation<br />
    8. 8. Modelling the Aggregates Flows in England and Wales<br />Crushed Rock inter-regional flows, 2005<br />
    9. 9. <ul><li>Data Preparation - estimating the demand for aggregates at small scale level</li></ul>Population at district level<br />Demand for Aggregates at Region Level<br />
    10. 10. Data Preparation – supply apportionment and transport network<br />
    11. 11. Quarry 1<br />Client 1<br />Rail Depot 1<br />Client 3<br />Quarry 2<br />Client 4<br />Quarry 3<br />Client 2<br />Rail Depot 2<br />Client 5<br />Quarry 4<br />Railway<br />Road<br />Transportation Model<br />An example of rail + road inter-modal transport system<br />
    12. 12. Railway Transport<br />Quarry 1(Rail linked)<br />Quarry 2 (Non-Rail linked)<br />Road Transport<br />Rail Depots<br />District 1<br />District 2<br />District 3<br />District 4<br />Transportation Model<br />x<br />dij = min (drij, diij) + e ;<br />diij = RC * dio + TC + doj<br />diij: distance equivalent via inter-modal transport ( +∞ if unavailable)<br />drij: distance via road transport<br />dio: rail delivery distance between quarry (i) and rail depots (o)<br />doj: road delivery distance between rail depots (o) to district (j)<br />RC: relative cost of rail transport<br />TC: transhipment cost equivalent<br />e: error weighted by radius of the district<br />
    13. 13. <ul><li>Doubly Constrained Spatial Interaction Model</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Carbon emission calculation
    14. 14. Approach 1: Fixed Conversion Rate </li></ul>Tonne-kms  (Energy Consumption)  Carbon Emission <br />Approach 2: Transport Model<br />Volume of aggregates<br />Delivery distance<br />Vehicle type<br />Carbon emission<br />Vehicle aging<br />Fuel consumption<br />......<br />
    15. 15. <ul><li>Calibrating </li></ul>TC = 40000<br />RC = 0.3<br />Beta = 5<br />
    16. 16. <ul><li>Modeling Result – Spatial Interaction Matrices</li></ul>Marine Sand & Gravel<br />Crushed Rock<br />Land-won Sand & Gravel<br />
    17. 17. Modeling Result – Key statistics<br />Observed<br />Modelled<br />SRMSE = 0.220 R-square = 0.996 (Land-won Sand & Gravel)<br />
    18. 18. <ul><li>Modeling Result – Carbon Emissions at Country Level</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Optimization – surface transport cost</li></ul>Changing Relative Cost of Railway Transport<br />CO2 Emission<br />RC<br />CO2 Emission<br />Changing Transhipment Cost<br />TC (km equivalent)<br />
    19. 19. What-if Analyses<br /><ul><li>Scenario 1– London Olympic Park Project</li></li></ul><li>Aggregates flows to Newham, London<br />The aggregates demand in 2005<br />
    20. 20. Scenario 2 – Improving the sustainability of aggregates supply<br />RC=0.3<br />TC=40000<br />RC=0.13<br />TC=40000<br />RC=0.13<br />TC=40000<br />
    21. 21. <ul><li>Variation of Carbon Emissions</li></ul>2005<br />2009<br />
    22. 22. Scenario 3 – Closing down biggest quarries<br />
    23. 23. Scenario 3 – Variation of CO2 Emissions <br />2005<br />2045<br />
    24. 24. What’s Next ?<br /><ul><li>Critical scenario settings
    25. 25. More sophisticated carbon emission model
    26. 26. Social-Economical Impact
    27. 27. Environmental Impact
    28. 28. Multi-Criteria Evaluation</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Multi Criteria Evaluation</li></ul>MCE<br /><ul><li>Social-Economical Impact</li></ul>Job loses<br />Economical cost (tax back etc.)<br />Overall Score<br /><ul><li>Environmental Impact</li></ul>Noise<br />Other impact to neighbourhood<br /><ul><li>Carbon Emission</li></li></ul><li>Thanks !<br />
    29. 29. Questions?<br />GISRUK<br />UCL, London<br />16-04-2010<br />

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