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Estimated Probability of Competing in Athletics
          Beyond the High School Interscholastic Level

                        Men's       Women's                               Men's Ice      Men's
 Student Athletes     Basketball    Basketball    Football    Baseball     Hockey        Soccer

High School             535,289      435,885     1,095,993     474,219      35,732      411,757
Student Athletes

High School Senior      152,940      124,539      313,141      135,491      10,209      117,645
Student Athletes

NCAA Student            17,890        16,134       69,643      31,999        3,891       22,987
Athletes

NCAA Freshman            5,111        4,610        19,898       9,143        1,112       6,568
Roster Positions

NCAA Senior              3,976        3,585        15,476       7,111        865         5,108
Student Athletes

NCAA Student              51            31          253          693          10           37
Athletes Drafted

Percent High             3.3%          3.7%         6.4%        6.7%        10.9%         5.6%
School to NCAA

Percent NCAA to          1.3%          0.9%         1.6%        9.7%         1.2%         0.7%
Professional

Percent High
School to               0.03%         0.02%        0.08%       0.51%        0.10%        0.03%
Professional


Note: These percentages are based on estimated data and should be considered approximations of the
actual percentages.

Last Updated: September 17, 2012
Estimated Probability of Competing in Athletics
                     Beyond the High School Interscholastic Level

Men's Basketball
      Approximately one in 30, or approximately 3.3 percent, of high school senior boys playing
        interscholastic basketball will go on to play men's basketball at a NCAA member institution.
      About one in 75, or approximately 1.3 percent, of NCAA male senior basketball players will get drafted
        by a National Basketball Association (NBA) team.
      Three in 10,000, or approximately 0.03 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic
        basketball will eventually be drafted by an NBA team.

Women's Basketball
      More than three in 100, or 3.7 percent, of high school senior girls interscholastic basketball players will
         go on to play women's basketball at a NCAA member institution.
      Less than one in 100, or approximately 0.9 percent, of NCAA female senior basketball players will get
         drafted by a Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) team.
      One in 5,000, or approximately 0.02 percent of high school senior girls playing interscholastic
         basketball will eventually be drafted by a WNBA team.
Football
      About 6.4 percent, or approximately one in 16, of all high school senior boys playing interscholastic
         football will go on to play football at a NCAA member institution.
      Less than two in 100, or 1.6 percent, of NCAA senior football players will get drafted by a National
         Football League (NFL) team.
      Eight in 10,000, or approximately 0.08 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic
         football will eventually be drafted by an NFL team.
Baseball
      About five in 75, or about 6.7 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic baseball players will
         go on to play men's baseball at a NCAA member institution.
      About ten in 100, or about 9.7 percent, of NCAA senior male baseball players will get drafted by a
         Major League Baseball (MLB) team.
      Approximately one in 200, or about 0.51 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic
         baseball will eventually be drafted by an MLB team.
Men's Ice Hockey
      Approximately 11 in 100, or about 10.9 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic ice hockey
         players will go on to play men's ice hockey at a NCAA member institution.
      One in 75, or about 1.2 percent, of NCAA senior male ice hockey players will get drafted by a National
         Hockey League (NHL) team.
      About one in 1,000, or approximately 0.10 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic
         ice hockey will eventually be drafted by an NHL team.
Men's Soccer
      Less than three in 50, or about 5.6 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic soccer players
         will go on to play men's soccer at a NCAA member institution.
      Approximately seven in 1,000, or about 0.7 percent, of NCAA senior male soccer players will be
         drafted by a Major League Soccer (MLS) team.
      More than two in 7,500 or approximately 0.03 percent of high school senior boys playing
         interscholastic soccer will eventually be drafted by an MLS team.
Estimated Probability of Competing in Athletics
                       Beyond the High School Interscholastic Level

Methodology
To calculate the estimated probability of competing in athletics beyond the high school interscholastic level, data
from several sources were combined. First, the estimated number of high school student-athletes participating
interscholastically in the sports having a major professional league in the United States was obtained from the
National Federation of State High School Associations. To calculate the number of high school seniors
participating interscholastically in those sports, the total number of high school student-athletes participating was
divided by 3.5. This figure was used because some high schools are three-year high schools while others are
four-year high schools.

The estimated number of NCAA student-athletes competing in the sports with major professional leagues in the
United States was obtained from the NCAA's 1982-11 Participation Statistics Report. To estimate the number of
NCAA roster positions in these sports available to an incoming freshmen class, the total number of NCAA
student-athletes participating was divided by 3.5. This figure was used because current player attrition will leave
more roster positions open than would be expected due to normal graduation. To estimate the number of NCAA
senior student-athletes participating in those sports, the total number of NCAA student-athletes participating was
divided by 4.5. This figure was used because student-athletes participating in these sports often red shirt and
therefore are on the team for five years. The number of college student-athletes drafted by the major professional
sport leagues in the United States was calculated using the most recent draft data for each league.

To calculate the probability of a high school senior going on to participate for a NCAA institution in these sports,
the estimated number of open NCAA roster positions was divided by the estimated number of high school seniors
participating interscholastically in these sports. To calculate the probability of a NCAA senior student-athlete being
drafted by a professional team in these sports, the number of NCAA student-athletes drafted into these
professional leagues was divided by the estimated number of NCAA senior student-athletes participating in these
sports. To calculate the probability of a high school senior student-athlete eventually being drafted by a
professional team in these sports, the number of NCAA senior student-athletes drafted by a United States
professional league in these sports was divided by the estimated number of high school seniors participating
interscholastically in these sports. All probabilities were multiplied by 100 to convert them to percentages.

Obviously, many assumptions and estimations are made in the process of calculating these figures. Therefore,
the reader should not consider these figures to be exact, but instead should view these figures as educated
calculations.

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NCAA Probability of Going Pro Methodology

  • 1. Estimated Probability of Competing in Athletics Beyond the High School Interscholastic Level Men's Women's Men's Ice Men's Student Athletes Basketball Basketball Football Baseball Hockey Soccer High School 535,289 435,885 1,095,993 474,219 35,732 411,757 Student Athletes High School Senior 152,940 124,539 313,141 135,491 10,209 117,645 Student Athletes NCAA Student 17,890 16,134 69,643 31,999 3,891 22,987 Athletes NCAA Freshman 5,111 4,610 19,898 9,143 1,112 6,568 Roster Positions NCAA Senior 3,976 3,585 15,476 7,111 865 5,108 Student Athletes NCAA Student 51 31 253 693 10 37 Athletes Drafted Percent High 3.3% 3.7% 6.4% 6.7% 10.9% 5.6% School to NCAA Percent NCAA to 1.3% 0.9% 1.6% 9.7% 1.2% 0.7% Professional Percent High School to 0.03% 0.02% 0.08% 0.51% 0.10% 0.03% Professional Note: These percentages are based on estimated data and should be considered approximations of the actual percentages. Last Updated: September 17, 2012
  • 2. Estimated Probability of Competing in Athletics Beyond the High School Interscholastic Level Men's Basketball  Approximately one in 30, or approximately 3.3 percent, of high school senior boys playing interscholastic basketball will go on to play men's basketball at a NCAA member institution.  About one in 75, or approximately 1.3 percent, of NCAA male senior basketball players will get drafted by a National Basketball Association (NBA) team.  Three in 10,000, or approximately 0.03 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic basketball will eventually be drafted by an NBA team. Women's Basketball  More than three in 100, or 3.7 percent, of high school senior girls interscholastic basketball players will go on to play women's basketball at a NCAA member institution.  Less than one in 100, or approximately 0.9 percent, of NCAA female senior basketball players will get drafted by a Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) team.  One in 5,000, or approximately 0.02 percent of high school senior girls playing interscholastic basketball will eventually be drafted by a WNBA team. Football  About 6.4 percent, or approximately one in 16, of all high school senior boys playing interscholastic football will go on to play football at a NCAA member institution.  Less than two in 100, or 1.6 percent, of NCAA senior football players will get drafted by a National Football League (NFL) team.  Eight in 10,000, or approximately 0.08 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic football will eventually be drafted by an NFL team. Baseball  About five in 75, or about 6.7 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic baseball players will go on to play men's baseball at a NCAA member institution.  About ten in 100, or about 9.7 percent, of NCAA senior male baseball players will get drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team.  Approximately one in 200, or about 0.51 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic baseball will eventually be drafted by an MLB team. Men's Ice Hockey  Approximately 11 in 100, or about 10.9 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic ice hockey players will go on to play men's ice hockey at a NCAA member institution.  One in 75, or about 1.2 percent, of NCAA senior male ice hockey players will get drafted by a National Hockey League (NHL) team.  About one in 1,000, or approximately 0.10 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic ice hockey will eventually be drafted by an NHL team. Men's Soccer  Less than three in 50, or about 5.6 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic soccer players will go on to play men's soccer at a NCAA member institution.  Approximately seven in 1,000, or about 0.7 percent, of NCAA senior male soccer players will be drafted by a Major League Soccer (MLS) team.  More than two in 7,500 or approximately 0.03 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic soccer will eventually be drafted by an MLS team.
  • 3. Estimated Probability of Competing in Athletics Beyond the High School Interscholastic Level Methodology To calculate the estimated probability of competing in athletics beyond the high school interscholastic level, data from several sources were combined. First, the estimated number of high school student-athletes participating interscholastically in the sports having a major professional league in the United States was obtained from the National Federation of State High School Associations. To calculate the number of high school seniors participating interscholastically in those sports, the total number of high school student-athletes participating was divided by 3.5. This figure was used because some high schools are three-year high schools while others are four-year high schools. The estimated number of NCAA student-athletes competing in the sports with major professional leagues in the United States was obtained from the NCAA's 1982-11 Participation Statistics Report. To estimate the number of NCAA roster positions in these sports available to an incoming freshmen class, the total number of NCAA student-athletes participating was divided by 3.5. This figure was used because current player attrition will leave more roster positions open than would be expected due to normal graduation. To estimate the number of NCAA senior student-athletes participating in those sports, the total number of NCAA student-athletes participating was divided by 4.5. This figure was used because student-athletes participating in these sports often red shirt and therefore are on the team for five years. The number of college student-athletes drafted by the major professional sport leagues in the United States was calculated using the most recent draft data for each league. To calculate the probability of a high school senior going on to participate for a NCAA institution in these sports, the estimated number of open NCAA roster positions was divided by the estimated number of high school seniors participating interscholastically in these sports. To calculate the probability of a NCAA senior student-athlete being drafted by a professional team in these sports, the number of NCAA student-athletes drafted into these professional leagues was divided by the estimated number of NCAA senior student-athletes participating in these sports. To calculate the probability of a high school senior student-athlete eventually being drafted by a professional team in these sports, the number of NCAA senior student-athletes drafted by a United States professional league in these sports was divided by the estimated number of high school seniors participating interscholastically in these sports. All probabilities were multiplied by 100 to convert them to percentages. Obviously, many assumptions and estimations are made in the process of calculating these figures. Therefore, the reader should not consider these figures to be exact, but instead should view these figures as educated calculations.