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Put the individual in climate context.
HOW MUCH POWER
   DO I USE?
Energy is measured in Joules (J)




                      Lifting an apple from
                      the ground to the
                      table. ~ 1 Joule
Power is measured in Watts (W).
1 Watt = 1 Joule / second

                      40 apples per second
                      from the ground to the
                      table = 40 Watts.
Running this Apple laptop takes 40 Watts.
The Power of me:
Calculating my energy consumption

Power, in Watts, is like an average.
The average amount of energy, in Joules, you use each second.

If you do something yearly (like fly 105,000 miles), it contributes:
168,207 kilometers                    1 year              1.40 megajoules                 Joules
                                                                                                   = 7,462 Watts
                          �                         �                          � 7,462
      1 year                  31,536,000 seconds            1 kilometer                   second




If you do something monthly (like your electricity bill), it contributes:
122 kilowatt ·hours                1 month                 3.6 megajoules                 Joules
                                                                                                   = 170 Watts
                          �                         �                            � 170
     1 month                  2,952,000 seconds            1 kilowatt · hour              second




If you do something daily (like drink 1 Energy drink), it contributes:
1 energy drink                1 day                7.84 megajoules               Joules
                                                                                          = 90 Watts
                      �                        �                          � 90
                                                                                 second
    1 day                 86,400 seconds                1 bottle




So now you can add all these things.
Yearly things + Monthly things + Daily things = your lifestyle in watts.
quot;Watts per alwaysquot;




                              100W




 Think of your life in light bulbs....


 A 12,000 Watt lifestyle is 120 x 100
 watt light bulbs burning permanently.
SFO TO LHR 41
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    W
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                     20 W JFK-SFO                                                                                                                                                                          LTHC
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                                                                                                                                                                                                         RECREA
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                         ORD-SFO 14
                                                                                                                                                                                                         HOUSE 260 W
                                        0W
                          SFO-JFK 200 W
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                                                                                                                                                                                                         MISCSTU
                                       230 W
                             SJC-SJO                                                                                                                                                                                 FF1000
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                                SJC                                                                                                                                                                            130
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                                                                                                                                            SHOWERS GAS 70 W
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                                                                                                                                            COOKING GAS 30 W
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                                                                                         TOYOT




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                                                                                                                                                                            AG PEST 0 W 0 W
                                                                                         DOD




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Me
7 000 000 000 People
Per capita power use 2003
                 Per Capita Energy Use 2003


            30
                                                                           16 Belgium
                                                                           17 Saudi Arabia
                                                                           18 Singapore
                                                                           19 Gibraltar
                                                                           20 Netherlands
                                                                           21 Oman
                                             1 Qatar                       22 France
                                                                           23 Russian Federation
                                             2 Iceland
            25                                                             24 New Zealand
                                             3 United Arab Emirates        25 Korea, Rep
                                                                           26 Czech Rep
                                             4 Bahrain                     27 Germany
                                                                           28 Austria
                                             5 Luxembourg                  29 Japan
                                             6 Netherlands Antilles        30 United Kingdom
                                                                           31 Denmark
                                             7 Kuwait                      32 Ireland
            20                               8 Trinidad and Tobago         33 Switzerland
                                                                           34 Estonia
                                             9 Canada                      35 Turkmenistan
                                                                           36 Slovenia
                                             10 United States              37 Slovakia
                                             11 Brunei Darussalam          38 Kazakhstan
                                                                           39 Cyprus
kilowatts




                                             12 Finland                    40 Spain
                                                                           41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
                                             13 Norway
            15
                                                                           42 Israel
                                             14 Sweden                     43 Italy
                                                                           44 Ukraine
                                             15 Australia                  45 Greece
                                                                           46 Belarus
                                                                           47 Lithuania
                                                                           48 South Africa
                                                                           49 Hungary
                                                                           50 Bulgaria
                                                                                                       US Average.
            10




            5
                                                                                                       Global
                                                                                                       Average


                 0          10               20               30      40                          50
Energy Use by Region
                                                      energy by region [NorAmer-Eur-MiddEast + NorAfr-CenAme & Car+SouAme+Asia(ex MidEst) ]
                                                                                      Power Watts/person
                                    12000

                                                north america

                                                11400 Watts
                                    10000
Average Per Person Power in Watts




                                     8000


                                                      Europe

                                                      5400 Watts
                                     6000

                                                                Middle-east & North Africa

                                                                2300 Watts
                                     4000                            Central America & the Carribean

                                                                     1800 Watts
                                                                           South America
                                                                                                                  Asia (excluding middle east)
                                                                           1580 Watts                             1450 Watts
                                     2000




                                        0
                                            0           1000              2000               3000              4000             5000             6000
                                                                                     Population in Millions.
Energy production
                                                     Humanity

                                                   18 TW
Units shown in Terawatts (TW)



                                Gas: 3.2   Coal: 3.6
    Nuclear: 0.37

      Hydro: 0.36

       Wind: 0.06

    Solar: 0.016

Geothermal: 0.03

   Tidal: 0.0005


                          Plants: 5.2      Oil:5
Cumulative National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning,
                              Cumulative national CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, ce-
                              ment manufacture, andand Gas Flaring: 1751-2004
                                Cement Manufacture, gas flaring: 1751-2004
                             90



                             80                                                          16 AUSTRALIA
                                                         1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA
                                                                                         17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA
                                                         2 USSR                          18 BELGIUM
                                                         3 CHINA_MAINLAND                19 SPAIN
                                                         4 GERMANY_COMBINE               20 BRAZIL
                                                                                         21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA
                                                         5 JAPAN_COMBINE
                             70                                                          22 NETHERLANDS
                                                         6 UNITED_KINGDOM                23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN
giga metric tons of carbon




                                                         7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE            24 SAUDI_ARABIA
                                                                                         25 INDONESIA
                                                         8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO
                                                                                         26 ROMANIA
                                                         9 INDIA
                                                                                         27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA
                             60                          10 CANADA                       28 ARGENTINA
                                                         11 POLAND                       29 VENEZUELA
                                                                                         30 TURKEY
                                                         12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION
                                                                                         31 UKRAINE
                                                         13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO   32 TAIWAN
                                                         14 SOUTH_AFRICA                 33 AUSTRIA
                             50                          15 MEXICO                       34 SWEDEN
                                                                                         35 HUNGARY
                                                                                         36 THAILAND
                                                                                         37 DENMARK
                                                                                         38 ALGERIA
                                                                                         39 BULGARIA
                             40                                                          40 EGYPT
                                                                                         41 GREECE
                                                                                         42 SWITZERLAND
                                                                                         43 NIGERIA
                                                                                         44 MALAYSIA
                                                                                         45 FINLAND
                             30                                                          46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES
                                                                                         47 KAZAKHSTAN
                                                                                         48 IRAQ
                                                                                         49 COLOMBIA
                                                                                         50 PAKISTAN
                             20



                             10




                                  0          10             20                      30                    40                       50
Out of equilibrium


                                             Atmosphere
                         Atmosphere          600 GtC
                         to Ocean            +2
                         2 GtC/year

              Soils
                                                  Carbon to
              3000 GtC
                                                  Atmosphere
                                                  8 GtC/year

          Oceans
          40000 GtC

                                              Accessible
                                              Fossil Fuels
                                              1600 GtC
                                Vegetation
                                700 GtC
Atmospheric CO2 concentration.
                         380




                         370




                         360
CO concentration (ppm)
 CO2 Level (ppm)




                         350




                                                                                          Mauna Loa Direct Measurement
                         340
                                                                                          Hawaii




                         330




                         320
                                                   Ice Core 20 year Average
                                                   Law Dome Antarctica


                         310
                           1955    1960   1965   1970     1975       1980          1985      1990   1995   2000   2005
                                                                     year
                                                                            Year
Temperature Changes around the world
in the last quarter of the 20th century

Trends in °C per decade




                                 -1   - 0.8   - 0.6   - 0.4 - 0.2   0 + 0.2 + 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.8   +1




                                                                             +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 +1
                          -1   -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0
The aesthetic choice... The design challenge...




                      ?
                 ?
                  ?
                ?
                 ?
Climate models:
                                    Physics and chemistry-based computer models of planet

                                                                                     1000
                                                                                     ppm



                                                                             750
                                                                             ppm
                                     6.0

                                                                       650
                                     5.5                               ppm

                                     5.0
Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius




                                                                 550                        Entire cities and countries lost to sea level
                                     4.5
                                                                 ppm
                                                           500
                                     4.0
                                                           ppm
                                                                                            20-50% Species Lost
                                     3.5


                                                    450                                     1-4 Billion people face water shortages
                                     3.0
                                                    ppm
                                                                                            15-40% Species Lost
                                              400
                                     2.5
                                              ppm

                                    2.0
                                     2.0


                                                                                            10% Species Lost
                                     1.5


                                     1.0


                                     0.5                                                                                                    Scenarios

                                                                                                                                                A1B
                                     0.0
                                                                                                                                                A1T
                                                                                                                                                A1FI
                                    -0.5                                                                                                        A2
                                                                                                                                                B1
                                                                                                                                                B2
                                    -1.0
                                                                                                                                                IS92a


                                           1700           1800                     1900                   2000                      2100
Scenarios:
                                    Guesses at humanity's reactions: quot;business as usual vs. changequot;

                                                                                     1000
                                                                                     ppm



                                                                             750
                                                                             ppm
                                    6.0

                                                                       650
                                    5.5                                ppm

                                    5.0
Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius




                                                                 550                        Entire cities and countries lost to sea level
                                    4.5
                                                                 ppm
                                                           500
                                    4.0
                                                           ppm
                                                                                            20-50% Species Lost
                                    3.5


                                                    450                                     1-4 Billion people face water shortages
                                    3.0
                                                    ppm
                                                                                            15-40% Species Lost
                                              400
                                    2.5
                                              ppm
                                    2.0


                                                                                            10% Species Lost
                                    1.5


                                    1.0


                                    0.5                                                                                                     Scenarios

                                                                                                                                                A1B
                                    0.0
                                                                                                                                                A1T
                                                                                                                                                A1FI
                                    -0.5                                                                                                        A2
                                                                                                                                                B1
                                                                                                                                                B2
                                    -1.0
                                                                                                                                                IS92a


                                           1700           1800                     1900                   2000                      2100
Impact Studies:
                                    Ecosystem, geopolitical, and other impacts, as predicted by climate models
                                    and scenarios.
                                                                                     1000
                                                                                     ppm



                                                                             750
                                                                             ppm
                                     6.0

                                                                       650
                                     5.5                               ppm

                                     5.0
Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius




                                                                   Entire cities and countries lost to sea level
                                                                 550
                                     4.5
                                                                 ppm
                                                           500
                                     4.0
                                                           ppm
                                                                   20-50% Species Lost
                                     3.5


                                                  450              1-4 Billion people face water shortages
                                     3.0
                                                  ppm              Resource wars
                                              400
                                     2.5
                                                                   15-40% Species Lost
                                              IRREVERSIBLE
                                              ppm
                                                                   90% Coral Reefs Lost
                                    2.0
                                     2.0

                                              FEEDBACKS
                                                                   10% Species Lost
                                     1.5


                                     1.0


                                     0.5                                                                                  Scenarios

                                                                                                                              A1B
                                     0.0
                                                                                                                              A1T
                                                                                                                              A1FI
                                    -0.5                                                                                      A2
                                                                                                                              B1
                                                                                                                              B2
                                    -1.0
                                                                                                                              IS92a


                                           1700           1800                     1900       2000                 2100
What if we choose?




                                  650

                                 550

                                        +2oC
              450ppm CO2
                                368
                  (year2000)


                                280
                Preindustrial
Global consumption
Sources of renewable energy.
                                                                                           16 TW

                              85 000 TW Surface Solar
       3.5 TW Tidal



                               41 000 TW                             38 000 TW
                               Evaporation                           Land & Water heating
 31 000 TW
 Atmospheric
 Absorption
                               300 TW Hydro Clouds
3600 TW Wind

                                                  25 TW Hydro Land


                                                                                 32 TW Geo thermal
                                       7.2 TW Hydro Rivers


  62 TW Ocean surface waves

                                     90 TW Photosynthesis     25 TW Ocean

                                         65 TW Land
     3 TW Coastal waves
                                                                       100 TW Ocean thermal gradient
2033 Energy Mix                                                                                                                          16 TW

Units shown in Terawatts (TW)


                                                                     Nuclear: 3                                                              ear
  (carbon-free)
                                                                                                                   2                       cl
                                                                                                                                        Nu
                                                                                                     herGeothermal New
                                                                                                   Ot
                        0.5                                                                    w
                                                                                            Ne
      Biofuels:                                                                                                  W               3T
                                                                                        W
                                                                                       T
                                                                                   0.5
                                                                                s
                                                                             uel
                                2
                                                                           lF
                                                                       ssi
      Fossil Fuels:                                                  Fo
                                                            2TW



  Existing Nuclear: 1                                                                                                                                                       m
                                                                                                                                                                         her
                                                                                                                                                                       ot
                                                                                                                                                                    Ge
                                                                                                                                                                w
                                                                                                                                                              Ne
                                                                                                                                                        2TW
Existing Hydro /                             ear
                                        cl
                        0.5          Nu
                             ting
   Renewables:              s
                        Exi
                  1TW
                                                   s
                                              ble
                                          a
                                      new
                                     e
                                /R
    Photo Voltaic           o
                        ydr
                        H
                     ng
                                2
                isti                                                                                                                                 d
             Ex                                                                                                                                    in
          5TW Solar                                                                                                                             wW
                                                                                                                                             Ne
       0.
                                                                                                                                       2TW
                                                                 r
                                                              ola
                                                             S
                                                        taic
                                                       l
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Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be
Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be

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Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be

  • 1.
  • 2. Put the individual in climate context.
  • 3. HOW MUCH POWER DO I USE?
  • 4. Energy is measured in Joules (J) Lifting an apple from the ground to the table. ~ 1 Joule
  • 5. Power is measured in Watts (W). 1 Watt = 1 Joule / second 40 apples per second from the ground to the table = 40 Watts.
  • 6. Running this Apple laptop takes 40 Watts.
  • 7. The Power of me: Calculating my energy consumption Power, in Watts, is like an average. The average amount of energy, in Joules, you use each second. If you do something yearly (like fly 105,000 miles), it contributes: 168,207 kilometers 1 year 1.40 megajoules Joules = 7,462 Watts � � � 7,462 1 year 31,536,000 seconds 1 kilometer second If you do something monthly (like your electricity bill), it contributes: 122 kilowatt ·hours 1 month 3.6 megajoules Joules = 170 Watts � � � 170 1 month 2,952,000 seconds 1 kilowatt · hour second If you do something daily (like drink 1 Energy drink), it contributes: 1 energy drink 1 day 7.84 megajoules Joules = 90 Watts � � � 90 second 1 day 86,400 seconds 1 bottle So now you can add all these things. Yearly things + Monthly things + Daily things = your lifestyle in watts.
  • 8. quot;Watts per alwaysquot; 100W Think of your life in light bulbs.... A 12,000 Watt lifestyle is 120 x 100 watt light bulbs burning permanently.
  • 9. SFO TO LHR 41 W W LHR- 4 W 3 SF 30 TS SF O ER ATL HE 3 O-A H TH DS LIG SFO 29 ARS L-A W -ATL 60 W O -SF A TL ET 1 W W O O 60 M R RE -CP RK LL A 4 S- 410 W O1 K- ST ASA CE 4 W 160 WO DO AT O 0W H5 G TI Y L- N G AT TAX S S G 4W -H W 10 W JU ER FO O W 3 N N ER W 3 W MY -O 57 S EH IR S W 1 A OT S LE FA 0 5 K W SF W 2 IC AF 56 H O- E H H - IC SA .VE NS BO 0 BO RV W S G S- W A V O ER -SE 21 SF 0 10 OA G 0 O ET TAL W 21 K OA E DC -DC V 8W NS K-O 0W S PO FE RD 18 -O DS 0 W AK -M 0 OO 34 DE ON 18 W EG -QU N 0W QU HIT ATIO 0 W E2 E-D W UC 10 TW 6 -SF ED ANCE W O2 FIN 10 SFO BUR-O W W -JFK 680 AK 20 W OAK-BUR 200 ARE 20 W JFK-SFO LTHC W HEA 200 W SFO-BO W TION 110 BOS-ORD S 210 W RECREA 70 W ORD-SFO 14 HOUSE 260 W 0W SFO-JFK 200 W JFK-SFO 200 W MISCSTU 230 W SJC-SJO FF1000 W 0W JC 23 SJO-S W BOO 280 -VIJ KS SJC 130 WA W W BIK STED 280 JC ISP OS TEXTIL NE ES J-S VI WS 6 WW AL ES EL A 18 9 0 W TER 1 W T 90 W EC RAN TR 60 W SPO ON W 40 RTT IC CO 1 S2 OM D1 M E4 50 PU Y 0W -S W TE O SF RS BO W 70 0 AT 0 CA 31 W W S RS R 0 50 0W WO -D 31 56 W W O WO ERTI 28 FO SF RK 0W AG IN 0 80 HILU 150 W -S TE W 0W RK K HE W 0W O2 .F OA SHOWERS GAS 70 W 0W COOKING GAS 30 W DR RN 31 EL AT 100 X 16 ET O- F MA 24 HT EC 20 TAXIORRENTAL 47 K-S W SF 70 SIG LIZ TER 0W TR YV OA W IC ER A IN UGG A TACO PRIN 41 OTA 50 ND 0W EB GE S W TOY HO DUN My 2007 life: TOYOT AG AG PEST 0 W 0 W DOD . FO CTR ES AG .E CO . BE SS LE ICID FF SU 18000 Watts. ER CE ILF OTHER EE LIGHTS GA STERE FR LAPTOP COMPU &W W RE FRIDGE DA UE 0 W HEATIN IC R UIT 50 W S 3 2 FA AL IRY LS ME INE 20 4 TS ,V S& ELEC 8 O ELEC AT 80 ELEC 7 EG AN GGS 10 6 TER EL ELEC 1 G GAS 4 GR TS 9 ELEC 3 &E W DO &N W AIN U IL 0W W S 1W EC 10 16 0W 10 00 W W 0W 0W 0W W W
  • 10. Me
  • 11. 7 000 000 000 People
  • 12. Per capita power use 2003 Per Capita Energy Use 2003 30 16 Belgium 17 Saudi Arabia 18 Singapore 19 Gibraltar 20 Netherlands 21 Oman 1 Qatar 22 France 23 Russian Federation 2 Iceland 25 24 New Zealand 3 United Arab Emirates 25 Korea, Rep 26 Czech Rep 4 Bahrain 27 Germany 28 Austria 5 Luxembourg 29 Japan 6 Netherlands Antilles 30 United Kingdom 31 Denmark 7 Kuwait 32 Ireland 20 8 Trinidad and Tobago 33 Switzerland 34 Estonia 9 Canada 35 Turkmenistan 36 Slovenia 10 United States 37 Slovakia 11 Brunei Darussalam 38 Kazakhstan 39 Cyprus kilowatts 12 Finland 40 Spain 41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 13 Norway 15 42 Israel 14 Sweden 43 Italy 44 Ukraine 15 Australia 45 Greece 46 Belarus 47 Lithuania 48 South Africa 49 Hungary 50 Bulgaria US Average. 10 5 Global Average 0 10 20 30 40 50
  • 13. Energy Use by Region energy by region [NorAmer-Eur-MiddEast + NorAfr-CenAme & Car+SouAme+Asia(ex MidEst) ] Power Watts/person 12000 north america 11400 Watts 10000 Average Per Person Power in Watts 8000 Europe 5400 Watts 6000 Middle-east & North Africa 2300 Watts 4000 Central America & the Carribean 1800 Watts South America Asia (excluding middle east) 1580 Watts 1450 Watts 2000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Population in Millions.
  • 14. Energy production Humanity 18 TW Units shown in Terawatts (TW) Gas: 3.2 Coal: 3.6 Nuclear: 0.37 Hydro: 0.36 Wind: 0.06 Solar: 0.016 Geothermal: 0.03 Tidal: 0.0005 Plants: 5.2 Oil:5
  • 15. Cumulative National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cumulative national CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, ce- ment manufacture, andand Gas Flaring: 1751-2004 Cement Manufacture, gas flaring: 1751-2004 90 80 16 AUSTRALIA 1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA 17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA 2 USSR 18 BELGIUM 3 CHINA_MAINLAND 19 SPAIN 4 GERMANY_COMBINE 20 BRAZIL 21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA 5 JAPAN_COMBINE 70 22 NETHERLANDS 6 UNITED_KINGDOM 23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN giga metric tons of carbon 7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE 24 SAUDI_ARABIA 25 INDONESIA 8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO 26 ROMANIA 9 INDIA 27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA 60 10 CANADA 28 ARGENTINA 11 POLAND 29 VENEZUELA 30 TURKEY 12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION 31 UKRAINE 13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO 32 TAIWAN 14 SOUTH_AFRICA 33 AUSTRIA 50 15 MEXICO 34 SWEDEN 35 HUNGARY 36 THAILAND 37 DENMARK 38 ALGERIA 39 BULGARIA 40 40 EGYPT 41 GREECE 42 SWITZERLAND 43 NIGERIA 44 MALAYSIA 45 FINLAND 30 46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES 47 KAZAKHSTAN 48 IRAQ 49 COLOMBIA 50 PAKISTAN 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
  • 16. Out of equilibrium Atmosphere Atmosphere 600 GtC to Ocean +2 2 GtC/year Soils Carbon to 3000 GtC Atmosphere 8 GtC/year Oceans 40000 GtC Accessible Fossil Fuels 1600 GtC Vegetation 700 GtC
  • 17. Atmospheric CO2 concentration. 380 370 360 CO concentration (ppm) CO2 Level (ppm) 350 Mauna Loa Direct Measurement 340 Hawaii 330 320 Ice Core 20 year Average Law Dome Antarctica 310 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year Year
  • 18. Temperature Changes around the world in the last quarter of the 20th century Trends in °C per decade -1 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0 + 0.2 + 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.8 +1 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 +1 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0
  • 19. The aesthetic choice... The design challenge... ? ? ? ? ?
  • 20. Climate models: Physics and chemistry-based computer models of planet 1000 ppm 750 ppm 6.0 650 5.5 ppm 5.0 Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius 550 Entire cities and countries lost to sea level 4.5 ppm 500 4.0 ppm 20-50% Species Lost 3.5 450 1-4 Billion people face water shortages 3.0 ppm 15-40% Species Lost 400 2.5 ppm 2.0 2.0 10% Species Lost 1.5 1.0 0.5 Scenarios A1B 0.0 A1T A1FI -0.5 A2 B1 B2 -1.0 IS92a 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
  • 21. Scenarios: Guesses at humanity's reactions: quot;business as usual vs. changequot; 1000 ppm 750 ppm 6.0 650 5.5 ppm 5.0 Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius 550 Entire cities and countries lost to sea level 4.5 ppm 500 4.0 ppm 20-50% Species Lost 3.5 450 1-4 Billion people face water shortages 3.0 ppm 15-40% Species Lost 400 2.5 ppm 2.0 10% Species Lost 1.5 1.0 0.5 Scenarios A1B 0.0 A1T A1FI -0.5 A2 B1 B2 -1.0 IS92a 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
  • 22. Impact Studies: Ecosystem, geopolitical, and other impacts, as predicted by climate models and scenarios. 1000 ppm 750 ppm 6.0 650 5.5 ppm 5.0 Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius Entire cities and countries lost to sea level 550 4.5 ppm 500 4.0 ppm 20-50% Species Lost 3.5 450 1-4 Billion people face water shortages 3.0 ppm Resource wars 400 2.5 15-40% Species Lost IRREVERSIBLE ppm 90% Coral Reefs Lost 2.0 2.0 FEEDBACKS 10% Species Lost 1.5 1.0 0.5 Scenarios A1B 0.0 A1T A1FI -0.5 A2 B1 B2 -1.0 IS92a 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
  • 23. What if we choose? 650 550 +2oC 450ppm CO2 368 (year2000) 280 Preindustrial
  • 24. Global consumption Sources of renewable energy. 16 TW 85 000 TW Surface Solar 3.5 TW Tidal 41 000 TW 38 000 TW Evaporation Land & Water heating 31 000 TW Atmospheric Absorption 300 TW Hydro Clouds 3600 TW Wind 25 TW Hydro Land 32 TW Geo thermal 7.2 TW Hydro Rivers 62 TW Ocean surface waves 90 TW Photosynthesis 25 TW Ocean 65 TW Land 3 TW Coastal waves 100 TW Ocean thermal gradient
  • 25. 2033 Energy Mix 16 TW Units shown in Terawatts (TW) Nuclear: 3 ear (carbon-free) 2 cl Nu herGeothermal New Ot 0.5 w Ne Biofuels: W 3T W T 0.5 s uel 2 lF ssi Fossil Fuels: Fo 2TW Existing Nuclear: 1 m her ot Ge w Ne 2TW Existing Hydro / ear cl 0.5 Nu ting Renewables: s Exi 1TW s ble a new e /R Photo Voltaic o ydr H ng 2 isti d Ex in 5TW Solar wW Ne 0. 2TW r ola S taic l -Vo l ma o hot r Solar Thermal: 2 The P lar Wind:2 w Ne o wS 2TW Ne 2TW