A partnership between SNCF, OuiShare and EPFL to explore low-carbon mobility toward 2030-2050. Focusing on collaborative / P2P / shared mobility potential and quality of life. This includes a thorough study of economic impacts of our choices. This exploration focuses on climate change and energy transition issues.

1. TOWARDS
LOW-CARBON MOBILITY
WIDE-RANGING INSIGHT TO GUIDE CHOICES FOR SOCIETY IN
PASSENGER TRAVEL IN FRANCE
A chance to improve
quality of life?
SUMMARY

2. ACTIVE MODES
(WALKING & CYCLING)
URBAN
PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
SHARED
VEHICLES
TRAINS
COACHES
OWNED
PERSONAL
VEHICLE
MOTORIZED
TWO-WHEELERS
AIRCRAFT
2013
30
28
12 32
37 54
48 81 107
58
72 90
87 101 136 123
39 75 54 53
597 726 475 358
14 27 18 21
15 21 14 12
BILLIONPKM
SHAREDGROUNDTRANSPORTATIONS
Ultramobility
2050
Altermobility
2050
Proximobility
2050
Each of these scenarios may only come true as a result of political choices, decisions by economic
agents and initiatives by individuals – which might or might not happen.
Ultramobility, “Faster and further” | Altermobility, “Getting around differently” | Proximobility, “The quality of local life”
With the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) leading to the signature of an agreement
marking the start of a process to deploy low-carbon solutions, SNCF presents a report on the possible
evolutions in personal mobility in France by 2050 and their environmental impacts.
This study draws on the work of French and international experts and on the findings of a survey. From
identical projections regarding changes in the economy, demographics and technology, the survey singled
out three possible futures, representing different levels of evolution of demand for mobility and the supply of
transport services. Whether one scenario or another becomes reality will depend on political and individual
choices which will further amplify underlying mobility trends observed today.
Only one scenario, Proximobility, enables the national objective to be met of dividing greenhouse gas
emissions by four nationwide (Factor 4). Taking into account the actual costs of different transport modes, this
scenario also offers savings to the wider community of nearly 100 billion euros per year compared with the
current situation and with the other scenarios.
The study draws on the expert contributions of sociologists, economists, engineers and transport specialists
from the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, ADEME, Trans-missions, Sustainable Mobilities and
Ouishare. Their work was backed up by an IFOP survey conducted in June and July 2015 on a representative
nationwide sample of 1,800 people aged 15 and above. Amplifying mobility trends observed today and using
identical demographic, economic and technological projections, the study identifies three main possible
futures:
MAIN FINDINGS

3. ___ ULTRAMOBILITY – “Faster and further“
This scenario is founded on the intensification, between now and 2050, of current trends towards long distance
mobility. It is based on the observation that distances are becoming greater between home and economic
activity, with residential choices reflecting aspirations for peace and quiet, jobs being based further away from
the home, and partners working in different towns due to increasingly difficult access to work and to property.
It also incorporates the notion of the attractiveness of mobility and in particular people’s desire to travel further
afield and more often. In this scenario, suburban sprawl continues to develop and increases distances. Home
working and online shopping only partially offset the increase in kilometres travelled. Cars are still a popular
means of transport and individual ownership remains the norm. Public transport continues to operate in large
city regions. In long distance travel, low cost air travel, ride sharing and coach travel all experience high growth,
while the market share of passenger rail slightly declines.
___ ALTERMOBILITY – “Getting around differently”
The second scenario takes into account the increase in long-distance mobility while also incorporating the
development between now and 2050 of an extensive and efficient mobility solution as an alternative to owned
personal vehicle. This scenario builds on the increasingly-accepted view that cars are too expensive and that
they are undesirable in large numbers in highly-built up urban areas. Traffic planning in towns, villages and
suburbs is redesigned to make cycling and walking become safe, time-saving and enjoyable options.
Public transport continues to develop and is rounded out by new last-kilometre solutions such as collective
taxis with digitally-optimised routes. The improvement of alternatives reduces people’s dependence on cars
and promotes car sharing, thus freeing up public space. The “altermobile system” whose constituent parts are
walking, cycling, local public transport, passenger rail, coaches and shared cars is fully integrated thanks to fast
connections, a single travel ticket and immediately available route planning information. Long distance travel
by train rises thanks to better door-to-door service and less need for a personal car to get around on arrival at
one’s destination.
___ PROXIMOBILITY – “The quality of local life”
The third scenario assumes that in 2050, an “altermobile” system will be in place in much of France, but also
that principles of urban development and residential choices will have profoundly changed, driven by an
ambition for quality of life in one’s immediate environment, a desire to enjoy quality time and take one’s time
(a reaction in particular to the state of exhaustion caused by lifestyle patterns today which are becoming ever
more rushed and stressful). In this scenario, natural space develops at the heart of towns and urban life is
enhanced, a trend accentuated by the “altermobile” system (less congestion, noise, stress and pollution in
cities). Suburban and rural space is intelligently densified through amendments to building and planning law.
These spaces reach density thresholds which make the installation of retail and services feasible. In this urban
environment context, active transport modes (walking and cycling) and shared means become even more
efficient and reach levels similar to those observed in the most advanced European countries (Switzerland,
Denmark, etc.), which are twice the rates observed in France in 2013. With regard to long-distance travel,
people will put the emphasis on taking advantage of journey time, thus preferring the train to other modes (car,
air).

4. Among these three scenarios, only the Proximobility option, combining the deployment of a comprehensive
and effective altermobile system throughout the country with a marked change in attitudes and lifestyles
regarding mobility, would allow the Government’s goal to be reached of dividing greenhouse gas emissions
by four nationwide between 1990 and 2050.
This objective, estimated at 30 million tons of carbon dioxide for the passenger transport sector, is met by the
Proximobility scenario, which generates 28 Mt of GHG emissions. The Altermobility scenario comes close,
with 34 Mt, while the Ultramobility scenario remains a long way off, with 51 Mt of carbon dioxide emitted.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
CO2
emissions (million tons : Mt)
Contribution
of transport
to Factor 4:
30 Mt
1990 2013 Ultramobility
2050
Altermobility
2050
Proximobility
2050
28 Mt
34 Mt
51 Mt
95 Mt
85 Mt
CONSEQUENCES OF THE SCENARIOS FOR
THE COUNTRY
With the Altermobility and Proximobility scenarios, there is less road congestion in city regions, accident
rates are nearly halved and local pollution reduced by a factor of 3 to 6. When converted into money, these
three impacts translate into an upside of 30 to 35 billion euros per year for the wider community compared
with the Ultramobility scenario.
_____

5. Promoting active transport modes, either on their own or connecting with shared means of transport, reduces
sedentarism and the public health problems associated. The positive health impact of the Altermobility
scenario compared to the Ultramobility scenario is estimated at 40 billion euros per year, and 65 billion euros
per year for the Proximobility scenario. As an indication, this sum equates to more than a third of the total
expenditure of the Health Service branch of the French social security system in 2014, and represents nine times
its current annual deficit.
2013 Ultramobility
2050
Altermobility
2050
Proximobility
2050
26 Accidents
Time wasted
in traffic
Pollution
37 18 15
9 15 8 5
6 3 2 1
The total benefit to society can be estimated by subtracting from the health benefits the negative
externalities of carbon emissions, pollution, congestion and accidents. The Altermobiltiy scenario thus
delivers benefits in excess of 70 billion euros a year in comparison with the Ultramobility scenario. The
Proximobility scenario adds a further 30 billion euros a year to this benefit. This difference of almost 100
billion euros per year between the Ultramobility and Proximobility scenarios equates to approximately 3.5%
of French GDP in 2050.
2013 Ultramobility
2050
Altermobility
2050
Proximobility
2050
- 45 - 66
- 35 - 28
+ 44 + 66
+ 104
+ 131
Positive
externalities
Negative
benefits
(accidents,
congestion,
local pollution,
carbon dioxide)
(health benefits,
physical exercise)
CO2
Health benefits and negative externalities (billion € per year)
Externalities (billion € per year)

6. Analysis of the impacts of the three scenarios – Ultramobility, Altermobiltiy and Proximobility – demonstrates
that in order to reach the national greenhouse gas emission reduction objective (the so-called Factor4), several
effects must operate at the same time. To meet the objective, it is essential to “decarbonise” vehicles, steer
mobility towards lower emission transport modes, including passenger rail, shared transport and active mobility,
change attitudes towards mobility and take certain policy decisions (changing land use and planning rules,
assigning a price to carbon, etc.).
As well as contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, these changes represent a key
opportunity for the country to reduce accidents and substantially improve public health and more generally
quality of life. SNCF, as a mobility operator, has a central role to play: the challenge for the group is to make
travellers want to travel by train and more generally use shared mobility solutions.
To reach this goal, SNCF has set itself the objective of doubling the proportion of shared mobility between now
and 2013 by facilitating modal shift and by offering solutions and mobile applications to make travel as easy as
possible.
CONCLUSION
2016-Réalisation graphique Kamisphère / traduction : Cordial Accord