Emerging Markets And World Economy

992 views

Published on

CONSTRUCCION POLMON

Published in: Education
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
992
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
22
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Emerging Markets And World Economy

  1. 1. EM and the World Economy: Something is Different this Time Visit to the Central Bank of Peru Leonardo Leiderman October 17, 2002
  2. 2. Flight to Quality – Increased Risk Aversion
  3. 3. An increase of EM and High Yield Bond Spreads
  4. 4. Portfolio Flows are Drying Up
  5. 5. Capital Flows Did Not Recover From the 1997-98 Crisis
  6. 6. Funds Available to Emerging Markets Have Dried Up
  7. 7. Reasons: <ul><li>Burst of Nasdaq Bubble. </li></ul><ul><li>Geopolitical risks. </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of investor’s confidence (corporate accounting scandals). </li></ul><ul><li>A doubtful US recovery. </li></ul>
  8. 8. A Reflection of Fundamental Problems
  9. 9. Policy is in Place and Has Been Flexible
  10. 10. The Fiscal Stance has Gone From Surplus to Deficit
  11. 11. Growth is Well Below Potential
  12. 12. Is There Any Hope From Europe and Japan?
  13. 13. EM: Adverse Conditions in 2002… <ul><li>Flight to quality. </li></ul><ul><li>Anemic world growth </li></ul><ul><li>Commodity prices. </li></ul>… With No Help From Internal EM Factors: <ul><li>Argentina </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil </li></ul><ul><li>Rest of LATAM </li></ul><ul><li>Turkey </li></ul>
  14. 14. The Majority of Non-Oil Commodity Prices Remain Depressed
  15. 15. EM: Something is Different Now—Exchange Rate Flexibility…
  16. 16. EM: Something Else is Different This Time-SELECTIVITY
  17. 17. Selectivity Applies to the Real Sector (Growth) As Well
  18. 18. EM and the World Economy: Something is Different this Time Visit to the Central Bank of Peru Leonardo Leiderman October 17, 2002

×