NA IPv6 Summit 2013: IPv6 Adoption by the Numbers

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Alain Fiocco (Cisco's Senior Director of IPv6 High Impact Program) presents at the NA IPv6 2013 Summit (Denver April 19th) on Global IPv6 Adoption. He provides a detailed look at IPv6 adoption metrics, a status of the transition, and how it helps making better IPv6 business decision.

Find out more about the Summit at: http://rmv6tf.org/na-ipv6-summit/2013-na-ipv6-summit

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  • Market forces alone, have failed to create the right incentive.Some Government or regulation may be able to create the right incentive for a transition of internet access providers and Internet of things.
  • NA IPv6 Summit 2013: IPv6 Adoption by the Numbers

    1. 1. Alain FioccoSr Director, IPv6 HIP afiocco@cisco.com© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 1
    2. 2. Do I pay less ? NAT’s are good. Where is the Any new RFC1918 gives meWhere is the content? network? security, and IPv4 Too much pain & applications? address runout is my no gain ISP’s problem. Device User Enterprise ISP The network is not ready, users Content don’t care and I don’t want to risk a poor end-user experience today for potential gains tomorrow “A deadlock, stalemate, impasse; a roughly equal (frequently unsatisfactory) outcome to a conflict in which there is no clear winner or loser,”© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2
    3. 3. Cloud The Network CDN >40% AT&T Users Verizon Mobile Content Comcast TWC Google Free > 80% Facebook Amazon > 1.2% RCS&RDS Rackspace Yahoo XS4ALL Bing KDDI OVH Wikipedia Softbank Akamai Netflix Many to come in 2013 Limelight Amazon 1000’s Enterprises Public Agencieshttp://www.worldipv6launch.org/participants© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 3
    4. 4. 6lab.cisco.com/stats Jim Barksdale, former Netscape CEOBased on data from RIR, routeviews, DNS roots, Alexa, Google, ITU and APnic © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 4
    5. 5. •  Collect and report metrics that represent every phase of the IPv6 Deployment: Planning, Network, Content, Users. •  Collect and report on a per-Countries basis as local decision and local players, impact local adoption •  Reporting must be on-going, to measure progress •  6lab.cisco.com/stats is a Cisco contribution to the industry. •  It is about to be significantly enhanced (stay tuned) Mobile Apps, Forecast , Widget© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 5
    6. 6. 22% CAGRIPv4 transit AS’s: 8645 IPv6 transit AS’s: 1501* Concentrated in TOP 300 IPv6 enabled AS’s: 3249 (75% of AS’s are IPv6 transit)© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 6
    7. 7. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 7
    8. 8. IPv6 transit – IPv6 enabled SE: 88% - 93% NO: 85%- 95% NL: 82% - 92% DE: 74% – 90% GB: 70% – 86% FR: 66% - 82% USA: 56% - 69% Source: routeview© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 8
    9. 9. alexa.com + => 1.  Test AAAA + httpget over IPv6 to top 500 Web sites for 125 countries (per alexa.com) and/or IPv6 shadow test domain (ex: iPv6.domain.com , www6.domain.com.…etc…) 2.  Based on their respective rank, apply the corresponding % of traffic they represent (Pareto function above) 3.  Sum this up => estimated available IPv6 content for 125 countries© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 9
    10. 10. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 10
    11. 11. 2.5 % => over 6 M users 0.6% 12 months ago© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 11
    12. 12. 10% 29% 4% 11% Source: Google Source: GoogleOctober January April July October January October 2011 January 2012 April 2012 July 2012 October 2012 January 20132011 2012 © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2012 2012 2012 2013 Cisco Confidential 17© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements Cisco Confidential 12
    13. 13. c.f. IPv4 exhaustion: http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/plotvar.png© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 13
    14. 14. •  As a ISP in US (ex: Cable or DSL SP). Asses how much content is available in the market I’m operating (ex:US). http://6lab.cisco.com/stats ~ approximation of the % of traffic (http sessions) that an average IPv6 users will be able to fetch over IPv6 * the nb of IPv6 users ... over time ⇒  Estimate of IPv6 capacity (ex: BNG, 6rd BR, Peering…) ⇒  Estimate how much traffic will OFFLOAD my CGN (NAT44)© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 14
    15. 15. •  As a B2C site (ex: online banking) •  Assess where my customers are coming from (Geolocation and/or ISP/ASN) •  Or look at market share of ISP’s in your market •  Look at % of users coming from theses markets or ISP, that are IPv6 enabled (Google stats - http://6lab.cisco.com/stats)…monitor over time ⇒  Estimate IPv6 capacity at your WEB Servers (DMZ, SLB, Security …etc…). ⇒  Decide when it makes sense to enable IPv6© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 15
    16. 16. “If we don’t overcome the challenges of IPv4 (…) we will slow down the growth of the Internet and loose momentum as an industry IPv6 is important to all of us (…) to everyone around the world, It is crucial to our ability to tie together everyone and every device. At Cisco we are commited architecturally to IPv6 across the board: All of our devices, all of our applications and all of our services" . John Chambers, Cisco President and CEO Led to creation of “IPv6 High Impact Project”© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 16
    17. 17. UC 9.0 AnyConnect 3.x Webex Mobile Webex CUCM 9.0 (Android, iOS) Client Meeting EFT CUBE/IOS 15.3 Windows, MacOS Prime Infra IOS 15.3 Prime Infra CNR/CAR ASA 9.1 (incl IPS) IOS-XE 3.8 ASA-Cx IOS-XR 4.3 IOS-XE 3.8 StarOS 14.0 WLC 7.3 NXOS 6.2 100s of IPv6 features Engineering Process changes – Test and Hardening - USGv6 certified Portfolio© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 17
    18. 18. •  Most WEB properties ~2% of cisco.com users •  100% of Core WAN/MAN •  All DMZ •  7 DC by Summer 2013 •  50 Buildings & Sale Branch offices Ethernet and Wifi 100 by Summer 2013 •  ~12000 users/devices •  Webex Meeting (just deployed) •  Cisco and beta testers© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 18
    19. 19. Cloud/MSDC Mobile Internet •  Scale IPv4 Exhaust. •  Scale: 10 Billions •  •  Virtualization # VM’s growth =>IPv6 •  4G-LTE / VoLTE brittle architecture Unlimited •  Stateless – E2E •  Automation connectivity •  Network Mobility •  VM mobility •  Simplification •  Simplification Internet of Things http://www.cisco.com/go/vni •  Scale: 50 Billions •  Global connectivity => horizontal integration •  Automation-Self Networked •  IoT Protocols are IPv6 only© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 19
    20. 20. afiocco@cisco.com© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 20

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