Brazilian Business Perspec/ve
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World Crisis Form
Consequences for Brazil
Brazilian Macroeconomic Overview
Main Impacts by Sector
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WORLD CRISIS FORM
About a year ago the RBS‐Royal Bank of Scotland paid US$ 100 billions to acquire
ABN Amro, last December, the bank could have boughten:
Ci/bank US$ 22,5 billions
Morgan Stanley US$ 10,5 billions
Goldman Sachs US$ 21 billions
Merrill Lynch US$ 12,3 billions
Deutsche Bank US$ 13 billions
Barclays US$ 12,7 billions
And would have a change of US$ 8 billions, to buy GM, Ford, Chrysler, and the
Honda F1 racing team.
Source: Octávio de Barros/Bradesco
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Consequences for Brazil
Lower asset value, reducJon on credit/investments
Lower commodity prices impacJng currency
Lower growth in 2009/10 (recession? How long will take to recover?)
Severe impact on exporters,agriculture,mining&metals,aviaJon
WhAT’S working?,consumer goods,automobile,energy,telecom,BANKING
posiJve: lower interest rate, infrastructure (PAC), more expending, sJmulus‐
housing and automobile, sJmulus for credit oﬃcial Banks, inﬂaJon?
negaJve: bad expending, worst ﬁscal results, lower trade balance, inﬂaJon?
HOW to transform Crisis into Opportunity ?
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• Currency: reverse correlaJon between CRB and currency 2009.
( 240 points of Commodity Research Bureau Index is equivalent to an
average of R$ 2,30/US$, source Bradesco )
• Capital: credit ?, investment‐longer ROI,
Cash is King.
• Financing: private‐equity, BNDES/Public Banks,
IPO’s (selecJve/2*semester), M&A, suppliers.
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Lower Growth in 2009‐2010
Cost Increase, diﬃcult to raise prices: R$/US$
SELECTIVE gain of share, Internet potenJal
Opportunity: ProducJon in Brazil, “low end”
Government Segment with high demand.
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2009/2010: CHALLENGE YEARS
Growth in Brazil – Low End Products.
Debt MUST be reduced.
SelecJve Growth Investment Strategy.
Possible: revalued R$ 2* semester.
Market Growth for capitalized companies.
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• External Focus: Partnerships
Help your Customer: New Products/Services
• Internal Focus: Management
ProducJvity, execute the“simple and diﬃcult”
• Discuss Regulatory Standards
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THANK YOU !
Direct Line/Fax: + 55‐11 5572‐0291
Cellular Phone: + 55‐11 9448‐8630
My Blog: hpp://geraldobarbosa01.wordpress.com
Skype me at: geraldobarbosa01
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