Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

GB Brazilian Business Presentation

950 views

Published on

2009/2010 Most Recent Forecast

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

GB Brazilian Business Presentation

  1. 1. Brazilian
Business
Perspec/ve
 2009/2010
 5/10/09
 GERALDO
BARBOSA
ASSOCIADOS
 1

  2. 2. Agenda
 World
Crisis
Form
 •  Consequences
for
Brazil
 •  Brazilian
Macroeconomic
Overview
 •  Main
Impacts
by
Sector
 •  Conclusions
 •  RecommendaJons
 •  5/10/09
 GERALDO
BARBOSA
ASSOCIADOS
 2

  3. 3. WORLD
CRISIS
FORM

 About
a
year
ago
the
RBS‐Royal
Bank
of
Scotland
paid
US$
100
billions
to
acquire
 •  ABN
Amro,
last
December,
the
bank
could
have
boughten:
   Ci/bank
US$
22,5
billions

   Morgan
Stanley
US$
10,5
billions
   Goldman
Sachs
US$
21
billions

   Merrill
Lynch
US$
12,3
billions

   Deutsche
Bank
US$
13
billions

   Barclays
US$
12,7
billions

 And
would
have
a
change
of
US$
8
billions,
to
buy
GM,
Ford,
Chrysler,
and
the
 •  Honda
F1
racing
team.

 Source:
Octávio
de
Barros/Bradesco
 5/10/09
 GERALDO
BARBOSA
ASSOCIADOS
 3

  4. 4. Consequences
for
Brazil
 Lower
asset
value,
reducJon
on
credit/investments
 •  Lower
commodity
prices
impacJng
currency
 •  Lower
growth
in
2009/10
(recession?
How
long
will
take
to
recover?)
 •  Severe
impact
on
exporters,agriculture,mining&metals,aviaJon
 •  WhAT’S
working?,consumer
goods,automobile,energy,telecom,BANKING
 •  Government:
 •  posiJve:
lower
interest
rate,
infrastructure
(PAC),
more
expending,
sJmulus‐ housing
and
automobile,
sJmulus
for
credit
official
Banks,
inflaJon?
 







negaJve:
bad
expending,
worst
fiscal
results,
lower
trade
balance,
inflaJon?
 







HOW
to
transform
Crisis
into
Opportunity
?
 5/10/09
 GERALDO
BARBOSA
ASSOCIADOS
 4

  5. 5. Macroeconomic
Overview
 Source:
Tendências/Bradesco
 




BRASIL
 







2009
 










2007
 










2008
 InflaJon
(IPCA)
 4,46%
 6,19%
 4,30%
 GDP
 5,42%
 5,05%
 ‐
0,5%
 Currency
R$/US$
 1,78
 2,38
 2,00
 Interest
Rate(Selic)
 11,25%
 13,75%
 8,75%
 Trade

Balance
 40
Billions
 24
Billions
 15
Billions
 Surplus
 5/10/09
 GERALDO
BARBOSA
ASSOCIADOS
 5

  6. 6. Financial
Impact
 •  Currency:
reverse
correlaJon
between
CRB
and
currency
2009.



























 





(
240
points
of
Commodity
Research
Bureau
Index
is
equivalent
to
an
 average
of
R$
2,30/US$,
source
Bradesco
)

 •  Capital:

credit
?,
investment‐longer
ROI,

 


















Cash
is
King.
 •  Financing:

private‐equity,

BNDES/Public
Banks,

 































IPO’s
(selecJve/2*semester),
M&A,
suppliers.
 5/10/09
 GERALDO
BARBOSA
ASSOCIADOS
 6

  7. 7. Companies
Impact
 Lower
Growth
in
2009‐2010
 •  Cost
Increase,
difficult
to
raise
prices:
R$/US$
 •  ReducJon:
expense/headcount/InvesJment
 •  SELECTIVE
gain
of
share,
Internet
potenJal
 •  Opportunity:
ProducJon
in
Brazil,
“low
end”
 •  Government
Segment
with
high
demand.
 •  5/10/09
 GERALDO
BARBOSA
ASSOCIADOS
 7

  8. 8. Conclusion
 2009/2010:
CHALLENGE
YEARS
 •  Growth
in
Brazil
–
Low
End
Products.
 •  Debt
MUST
be
reduced.
 •  SelecJve
Growth
Investment
Strategy.
 •  Possible:
revalued
R$
2*
semester.
 •  Market
Growth
for
capitalized
companies.

 •  5/10/09
 GERALDO
BARBOSA
ASSOCIADOS
 8

  9. 9. Recomenda/ons
 •  Pragma/sm
 •  External
Focus:
Partnerships

 



Help
your
Customer:
New
Products/Services
 •  Internal
Focus:
Management
 



ProducJvity,
execute
the“simple
and
difficult”
 •  Discuss
Regulatory
Standards
 •  Resilience
 5/10/09
 GERALDO
BARBOSA
ASSOCIADOS
 9

  10. 10. THANK
YOU
! 

 Geraldo
Barbosa
 Direct
Line/Fax:
+
55‐11
5572‐0291





 Cellular

Phone:
+
55‐11
9448‐8630
 geraldobarbosa@me.com
 h0p://www.linkedin.com/in/geraldobarbosa



 My
Blog:
hpp://geraldobarbosa01.wordpress.com
 Skype
me
at:
geraldobarbosa01





 5/10/09
 GERALDO
BARBOSA
ASSOCIADOS
 10


×