OREA CAMPAIGN COLLEGE MONDAY, APRIL 18, 2011 John Wright Senior Vice President Ipsos Reid
CAMPAIGNS MATTER CAMPAIGNS START LONG BEFORE THE WRIT IS DROPPED CAMPAIGNS ARE TO SHAPE THE MOTIVATING BALLOT QUESTION
When I Spoke to OREA in November, 2010…   Thinking of how you feel right now, if a PROVINCIAL election were held tomorrow,...
Time for a Change : 64%... Some people say that the Liberal government under Premier Dalton McGuinty has done a good job a...
Wrong Direction : 68%... Overall, would you say that Ontario is headed on the right track these days or headed in the wron...
Best Premier : Hudak (37%) versus  McGuinty (29%)… Which of the provincial party leaders do you think would make the best ...
Trust : Hudak 33% (+6)… Who will Get Things Done  : 41% (+10)… Please indicate which leader is best described by each trai...
What it Takes to Lead Ontario : Hudak 41% (+11)… Who Has a Vision to Support : Hudak 40% (+16)… Please indicate which lead...
Hidden Agenda : McGuinty  (+32)… Open to Ideas : Hudak (+8)… Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait:...
Someone Who Can Compromise : Hudak 33%(+5)… Best to Manage the Economy : 43% Hudak (+14)… Please indicate which leader is ...
Best Manage Taxpayers Dollars : Hudak  38% (+13)… Best Manage Healthcare System : Hudak 37% (+12)… Please indicate which l...
Liberals on Their Heels …Hudak Pressing McGuinty Government Scandals : Incompetent High Rates and Taxes : Hurt Families De...
Turning the Battleship Around December 2010: Battle Maneuvers Began
The Liberal Campaign March … <ul><li>In December the Liberals struck back on almost all fronts with what I call the &quot;...
<ul><li>Hudak stumbled  during his buck a beer week on healthcare: Feb 3 Tory media release said &quot; If elected premier...
We Went From This:
TO THIS:
AND THIS:
AND EVEN GOT SOME HELP WHERE  HE DIDN’T EXPECT IT…
178 Days Until The Provincial Election Current Federal Election Has And Will Have An Impact Ipsos Stopped Polling On Ontar...
Ontario Provincial Vote Support  February 2011… Thinking of how you feel right now, if a PROVINCIAL election were held tom...
Provincial Vote Intentions in Toronto… Parties/candidates supported/lean towards  Base: All respondents n=513
Approval Ratings Provincial Leaders in Toronto… .  Generally speaking would you say you approve or disapprove of the overa...
<ul><li>Potential to form Government: Not at all… </li></ul><ul><li>But Policies will be Important to Watch as Liberals Co...
Why You Matter
Voting by Own vs. Rent…2010 Municipal Elections… Thinking about the most recent municipal election held in your municipali...
Rating Investments as Builders of Equity and Wealth in Ontario: Thinking about your financial future, please indicate the ...
ISSUES IN ONTARIO
Issue Watch: Jobs and Economy Top Concern in Ontario…
The Economy: Global and National
The Global Average Assessment of National  Economies in 24 Countries:  Flat Lined … Now thinking about our economic situat...
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in  [insert country]? Is ...
Assessment of the Overall State of the Economy - Tracking from 1994 to March 2011… Base: All Respondents n = 3520 In terms...
Canadians and Americans Assess Current National Economic Condition … Now thinking about our economic situation, how would ...
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area  using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy t...
Canadians and Americans Assess Current Local Economic Condition … Rate the current state of the economy in your local area...
Citizen Consumers Who Say Economy in the  Local Area Stronger in Next Six Months … Looking ahead six months from now, do y...
Canadians and Americans Assess Local Economic 6 Month Outlook … Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the econo...
Provincial
Job Anxiety: Nationally Total = 22%, (+2 since January)… 17% -2 18% -1 16% +1 28% +5 21% +4 21% +2 Are you or is anyone in...
Perception of Overall State of the Canadian Economy Total National:  Ontario 61% “Good” In terms of the current economic c...
Outlook for the Canadian Economy - Over the Next Year :  Ontario 41% “Improve” … (Canadian economy). Thinking about the ne...
Outlook for Personal Financial Situation - Over the Next Year :  Ontario 39% “Improve … Your own financial situation. Thin...
But House Purchase Intent Has Declined In Alberta And Ontario… Q6. How likely are you to purchase a home, or another home,...
Some Attitudes Towards Home Ownership and Government in Ontario… Thinking about home ownership, to what extent do you agre...
Conclusions
Conclusions… <ul><li>What Does It Take For A Majority Government In Ontario? </li></ul><ul><li>42% ... </li></ul><ul><li>H...
Conclusions… <ul><li>A Possible  Minority  Either Way  </li></ul><ul><li>For  Liberals  or Conservatives </li></ul><ul><li...
Conclusions… <ul><li>A Possible  Minority  Either Way  </li></ul><ul><li>For  Liberals  or Conservatives </li></ul><ul><li...
But Remember: CAMPAIGNS MATTER OREA CAMPAIGN COLLEGE MONDAY, APRIL 18, 2011 John Wright Senior Vice President Ipsos Reid
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Ontario Election Update

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John Wright – Senior Vice President, Ipsos Reid Public Affairs. Presentation on the Ontario Election Update to OREA's 2011 Campaign College (April 18, 2011).

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Ontario Election Update

  1. 1. OREA CAMPAIGN COLLEGE MONDAY, APRIL 18, 2011 John Wright Senior Vice President Ipsos Reid
  2. 2. CAMPAIGNS MATTER CAMPAIGNS START LONG BEFORE THE WRIT IS DROPPED CAMPAIGNS ARE TO SHAPE THE MOTIVATING BALLOT QUESTION
  3. 3. When I Spoke to OREA in November, 2010… Thinking of how you feel right now, if a PROVINCIAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Party Support in Ontario (TRACKING 2007-2011), Election Results
  4. 4. Time for a Change : 64%... Some people say that the Liberal government under Premier Dalton McGuinty has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected during the Provincial election this upcoming October. Other people say that it is time for another provincial political party to take over and run the province. Which statement is closest to your point of view?
  5. 5. Wrong Direction : 68%... Overall, would you say that Ontario is headed on the right track these days or headed in the wrong direction?
  6. 6. Best Premier : Hudak (37%) versus McGuinty (29%)… Which of the provincial party leaders do you think would make the best Premier of Ontario?
  7. 7. Trust : Hudak 33% (+6)… Who will Get Things Done : 41% (+10)… Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait: Someone you can trust Someone who will get things done
  8. 8. What it Takes to Lead Ontario : Hudak 41% (+11)… Who Has a Vision to Support : Hudak 40% (+16)… Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait: Someone who has what it takes to lead Ontario Someone who has a vision of Ontario that you can support
  9. 9. Hidden Agenda : McGuinty (+32)… Open to Ideas : Hudak (+8)… Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait: Someone who has a hidden agenda Someone who is open to the ideas of others
  10. 10. Someone Who Can Compromise : Hudak 33%(+5)… Best to Manage the Economy : 43% Hudak (+14)… Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait: Someone who knows when to compromise for the greater good Someone who is best to manage the economy
  11. 11. Best Manage Taxpayers Dollars : Hudak 38% (+13)… Best Manage Healthcare System : Hudak 37% (+12)… Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait: Someone who is best to manage taxpayers dollars Someone who is best to manage the future of the provincial healthcare system
  12. 12. Liberals on Their Heels …Hudak Pressing McGuinty Government Scandals : Incompetent High Rates and Taxes : Hurt Families Deficit Spending Out of Control : Must Manage, Must Have a Plan or Ruin
  13. 13. Turning the Battleship Around December 2010: Battle Maneuvers Began
  14. 14. The Liberal Campaign March … <ul><li>In December the Liberals struck back on almost all fronts with what I call the &quot; Buckley's &quot; formula: it's tough medicine to make the province work better and to build --like Hydro Rates </li></ul><ul><li>The Liberal communications team took over as the policy people shut down and the Premier went on tour with his economic/jobs message </li></ul><ul><li>The Liberals challenged: show us your plans and alternatives: Hydro, HST, Healthcare, Education </li></ul><ul><li>Made a virtue out of tough medicine, started shutting down controversial items (gas plant dropped in Oakville/compensation, Wind Farm moratorium) </li></ul>
  15. 15. <ul><li>Hudak stumbled during his buck a beer week on healthcare: Feb 3 Tory media release said &quot; If elected premier he would not cut the heath tax or Ontario's health-re budget &quot;. A few days later he said that &quot; all options&quot; were on the table to give voters some relief, including the health tax </li></ul><ul><li>&quot; Family Coalition &quot; starts attacking Hudak with ad's, Teachers say they will support McGuinty, and the Mike Harris 'Haunting' in Toronto picks up </li></ul><ul><li>The Budget shows the deficit being paid down sooner and puts Healthcare and Education up as the ballot targets </li></ul><ul><li>There is Caucus Unrest with PC’s over Nominations </li></ul>The Liberal Campaign March…
  16. 16. We Went From This:
  17. 17. TO THIS:
  18. 18. AND THIS:
  19. 19. AND EVEN GOT SOME HELP WHERE HE DIDN’T EXPECT IT…
  20. 20. 178 Days Until The Provincial Election Current Federal Election Has And Will Have An Impact Ipsos Stopped Polling On Ontario Politics In March Because Of Federal Campaign &quot;Spill“ But at the End of February …
  21. 21. Ontario Provincial Vote Support February 2011… Thinking of how you feel right now, if a PROVINCIAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Party Support in Ontario (TRACKING 2007-2011), Election Results
  22. 22. Provincial Vote Intentions in Toronto… Parties/candidates supported/lean towards Base: All respondents n=513
  23. 23. Approval Ratings Provincial Leaders in Toronto… . Generally speaking would you say you approve or disapprove of the overall performance of the following? Base: All respondents n=513 54% % Strongly/ Somewhat Approve 51% 47%
  24. 24. <ul><li>Potential to form Government: Not at all… </li></ul><ul><li>But Policies will be Important to Watch as Liberals Conscious of their Far Left Flank </li></ul><ul><li>Andrea Horwath – First Campaign will Likely Use </li></ul><ul><li>Jack Layton/Olivia Chow to Campaign in Toronto/North/Southwest </li></ul><ul><li>More Center Left than Hard Labour Left? </li></ul><ul><li>Wildcard Spoilers: Possible Minority Brokers </li></ul>The NDP…
  25. 25. Why You Matter
  26. 26. Voting by Own vs. Rent…2010 Municipal Elections… Thinking about the most recent municipal election held in your municipality or region, did you vote? Base: All respondents: Net own n=972; Net rent n=547. Net Own Net Rent Those who own their home are much more likely (74%) to say they voted in their most recent municipal election than those who rent (48%).
  27. 27. Rating Investments as Builders of Equity and Wealth in Ontario: Thinking about your financial future, please indicate the degree to which you believe the following forms of investments are good or not at building equity and wealth: Base: All respondents n=1,519 Very/pretty good 86% 79% 74% 63% 26% 23% 22%
  28. 28. ISSUES IN ONTARIO
  29. 29. Issue Watch: Jobs and Economy Top Concern in Ontario…
  30. 30. The Economy: Global and National
  31. 31. The Global Average Assessment of National Economies in 24 Countries: Flat Lined … Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? 3
  32. 32. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Global Citizens Who Assess Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”: Canada 6 th of 24…
  33. 33. Assessment of the Overall State of the Economy - Tracking from 1994 to March 2011… Base: All Respondents n = 3520 In terms of the current economic conditions in Canada as a whole, how would you describe the overall state of the economy right now? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Q.1.
  34. 34. Canadians and Americans Assess Current National Economic Condition … Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
  35. 35. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. Citizen Consumers Who Say Current Local Economy Condition Strong …
  36. 36. Canadians and Americans Assess Current Local Economic Condition … Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
  37. 37. Citizen Consumers Who Say Economy in the Local Area Stronger in Next Six Months … Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
  38. 38. Canadians and Americans Assess Local Economic 6 Month Outlook … Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
  39. 39. Provincial
  40. 40. Job Anxiety: Nationally Total = 22%, (+2 since January)… 17% -2 18% -1 16% +1 28% +5 21% +4 21% +2 Are you or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off? Q.7. Base: All Respondents n = 3520 *Percentage of People Who Responded ‘Yes – Worried’
  41. 41. Perception of Overall State of the Canadian Economy Total National: Ontario 61% “Good” In terms of the current economic conditions in Canada as a whole, how would you describe the overall state of the economy right now? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Q.1. Base: All Respondents n = 3520 Percent ‘ Good’ Change over Previous Quarter +1% +1% -6% -2% +6% 0% -5%
  42. 42. Outlook for the Canadian Economy - Over the Next Year : Ontario 41% “Improve” … (Canadian economy). Thinking about the next year or so, do you, yourself, generally feel that the Canadian economy and your own economic situation will improve, stay the same or get worse? Q.9_1. Base: All Respondents n =3520 Percent ‘ Improve’ Change over Previous Quarter -1% 0% -11% -4% +2% +5% -11%
  43. 43. Outlook for Personal Financial Situation - Over the Next Year : Ontario 39% “Improve … Your own financial situation. Thinking about the next year or so, do you, yourself, generally feel that the Canadian economy and your own financial situation will improve, stay the same or get worse? Q.9_2. Base: All Respondents n = 3520 Percent ‘ Improve’ Change over Previous Quarter +1% -2% -3% 0% +3% +8% -13%
  44. 44. But House Purchase Intent Has Declined In Alberta And Ontario… Q6. How likely are you to purchase a home, or another home, within the next two years? Are you ... Base: All Respondents
  45. 45. Some Attitudes Towards Home Ownership and Government in Ontario… Thinking about home ownership, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Base: Own a home n=972 Strongly/ somewhat agree 95% 94% 93%
  46. 46. Conclusions
  47. 47. Conclusions… <ul><li>What Does It Take For A Majority Government In Ontario? </li></ul><ul><li>42% ... </li></ul><ul><li>How Long is a Week in Politics? </li></ul><ul><li>A Lifetime … </li></ul><ul><li>Who Has the Greatest Ability to Set the Agenda? </li></ul><ul><li>The Sitting Government … </li></ul><ul><li>What is Critical to Know? </li></ul><ul><li>Campaigns Matter in Shaping a Ballot Question … </li></ul><ul><li>So, How is This One Shaping Up? </li></ul>
  48. 48. Conclusions… <ul><li>A Possible Minority Either Way </li></ul><ul><li>For Liberals or Conservatives </li></ul><ul><li>A fight for Hard Working Families </li></ul><ul><li>Liberals </li></ul><ul><li>Healthcare </li></ul><ul><li>(McGuinty already Calling out Feds) </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Stability </li></ul><ul><li>Making Tough Decisions </li></ul>
  49. 49. Conclusions… <ul><li>A Possible Minority Either Way </li></ul><ul><li>For Liberals or Conservatives </li></ul><ul><li>A fight for Hard Working Families </li></ul><ul><li>Conservatives </li></ul><ul><li>Scandals: Out of Touch </li></ul><ul><li>Deficit Spending: Out of Control </li></ul><ul><li>TAXES </li></ul><ul><li>A Bleak Future Without Change </li></ul>
  50. 50. But Remember: CAMPAIGNS MATTER OREA CAMPAIGN COLLEGE MONDAY, APRIL 18, 2011 John Wright Senior Vice President Ipsos Reid

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