Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Economics Teacher ConferenceEd ConwayJuly 2011
2No normal recessionfive years on…1930-1934, 5.23%1979-1983, 3.41%1990-1993, 9.91%2008-, -2.42%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12...
3So real incomes are fallingSource: Office for National Statistics. Median hourly earnings excludingovertime for all emplo...
4Fiscal conservatism (I)Source: OECD
5Fiscal Conservatism (II)Source: Bank of England
6Fiscal Conservatism (III)Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies
7Monetary activism01002003004005006002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Apr-13UKUSJapanEuro AreaSource: Bank of England
8What does £375bn buy youthese days?
91. A third of the gilts market0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,0002011…2011…2011…2011…2012…20...
102. Every single automobile in Britain (cost: £185bn)
113. Scotland
124. Some pennies
135. A present£14,423for every single householdin the UK
14Net results: 1. distributive impactgains for UK households from QE by income decileX axis measures change in household i...
152: UK housing market-40-20020406080Price-to-rent ratioOver-valuationUnder-valuation
163. Higher prices for other exclusive assets/services
174. Divided UK
18No global rebalancingSource: OECD
19No euro rebalancing (I)Unit labour costsSource: OECD90.0095.00100.00105.00110.00115.00120.00125.00130.00135.00140.002000...
20No euro rebalancing (II)Beer pricesSource: Eurostat90.0100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0150.0160.02000-01-012000-06-012000-11-01...
21Current account balances
Bretton Woods compared (I)World GDP(annual average%)World inflationGold Standard(1870-1913)1.3 0.6Interwar period(1925-39)...
Bretton Woods compared (II)Nationaldownturns (shareof period)Banking crises(per year)Gold Standard(1870-1913)19 1.3Interwa...
Bretton Woods compared (III)External defaults(no per year)Current accountimbalances(surplus + deficit)Gold Standard(1870-1...
25But the future is brighterPotential growth rates2012-17 2018-30 2031-50United States 2.0 2.1 1.7Japan 0.8 1.1 1.1Germany...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Ed Conway Presentation to Tutor2u ETNC 2013

1,159 views

Published on

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Ed Conway Presentation to Tutor2u ETNC 2013

  1. 1. Economics Teacher ConferenceEd ConwayJuly 2011
  2. 2. 2No normal recessionfive years on…1930-1934, 5.23%1979-1983, 3.41%1990-1993, 9.91%2008-, -2.42%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60Source: NIESR
  3. 3. 3So real incomes are fallingSource: Office for National Statistics. Median hourly earnings excludingovertime for all employees10.0010.5011.0011.5012.0012.502002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012£ per hour
  4. 4. 4Fiscal conservatism (I)Source: OECD
  5. 5. 5Fiscal Conservatism (II)Source: Bank of England
  6. 6. 6Fiscal Conservatism (III)Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies
  7. 7. 7Monetary activism01002003004005006002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Apr-13UKUSJapanEuro AreaSource: Bank of England
  8. 8. 8What does £375bn buy youthese days?
  9. 9. 91. A third of the gilts market0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,0002011…2011…2011…2011…2012…2012…2012…HouseholdsPrivate Non-FinancialcompaniesBank of EnglandOther FinancialInstitutionsInsuranceCompanies andPension fundsSource: Debt Management Office
  10. 10. 102. Every single automobile in Britain (cost: £185bn)
  11. 11. 113. Scotland
  12. 12. 124. Some pennies
  13. 13. 135. A present£14,423for every single householdin the UK
  14. 14. 14Net results: 1. distributive impactgains for UK households from QE by income decileX axis measures change in household income (£) Source: Bank ofEngland/Sky News
  15. 15. 152: UK housing market-40-20020406080Price-to-rent ratioOver-valuationUnder-valuation
  16. 16. 163. Higher prices for other exclusive assets/services
  17. 17. 174. Divided UK
  18. 18. 18No global rebalancingSource: OECD
  19. 19. 19No euro rebalancing (I)Unit labour costsSource: OECD90.0095.00100.00105.00110.00115.00120.00125.00130.00135.00140.002000-01-012000-05-012000-09-012001-01-012001-05-012001-09-012002-01-012002-05-012002-09-012003-01-012003-05-012003-09-012004-01-012004-05-012004-09-012005-01-012005-05-012005-09-012006-01-012006-05-012006-09-012007-01-012007-05-012007-09-012008-01-012008-05-012008-09-012009-01-012009-05-012009-09-012010-01-012010-05-012010-09-012011-01-01GermanyIrelandSpainFranceGreece
  20. 20. 20No euro rebalancing (II)Beer pricesSource: Eurostat90.0100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0150.0160.02000-01-012000-06-012000-11-012001-04-012001-09-012002-02-012002-07-012002-12-012003-05-012003-10-012004-03-012004-08-012005-01-012005-06-012005-11-012006-04-012006-09-012007-02-012007-07-012007-12-012008-05-012008-10-012009-03-012009-08-012010-01-012010-06-012010-11-012011-04-012011-09-012012-02-012012-07-012012-12-01GermanyIrelandSpainFranceGreece
  21. 21. 21Current account balances
  22. 22. Bretton Woods compared (I)World GDP(annual average%)World inflationGold Standard(1870-1913)1.3 0.6Interwar period(1925-39)1.2 0Bretton Woods(1948-72)2.8 3.3Current (1973-2008)1.8 4.8
  23. 23. Bretton Woods compared (II)Nationaldownturns (shareof period)Banking crises(per year)Gold Standard(1870-1913)19 1.3Interwar period(1925-39)27 2.1Bretton Woods(1948-72)4 0.1Current (1973-2008)13 2.6
  24. 24. Bretton Woods compared (III)External defaults(no per year)Current accountimbalances(surplus + deficit)Gold Standard(1870-1913)0.9 2.4Interwar period(1925-39)1.5 1.2Bretton Woods(1948-72)0.7 0.8Current (1973-2008)1.3 2.2
  25. 25. 25But the future is brighterPotential growth rates2012-17 2018-30 2031-50United States 2.0 2.1 1.7Japan 0.8 1.1 1.1Germany 1.2 0.9 0.7UnitedKingdom1.7 2.6 2.0France 1.5 2.3 1.4Italy 0.1 2.0 1.4Canada 2.0 2.2 1.9Source: OECD

×