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Andy Tait: Addresses and Output Geography for 2011 Census in England and Wales


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Andy Tait: Addresses and Output Geography for 2011 Census in England and Wales

  1. 1. <ul><li>Addresses and Output Geography for 2011 Census in England and Wales </li></ul><ul><li>Andy Tait </li></ul><ul><li>Office for National Statistics </li></ul>
  2. 2. <ul><li>Background: Census – 2001 / 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>Addresses for 2011 Census </li></ul><ul><li>Output Geographies for 2011 Census </li></ul>Content
  3. 3. <ul><li>24m households in England/Wales </li></ul><ul><li>70,000 field staff </li></ul><ul><li>Innovations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Census coverage survey – adjusted figures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Post back </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scanning, OCR </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>100% coding </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New questions - religion, carers, health </li></ul>Census 2001
  4. 4. <ul><ul><li>Post-out 2011 – hand delivered in 2001 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Address checking before 2011 Census </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can fill in questionnaire online </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Census count of both residents and visitors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intensive, targeted and flexible follow up of non response </li></ul></ul>Changes from 2001 in 2011
  5. 5. Addresses for 2011 Census
  6. 6. <ul><li>Addresses for 2011 Census </li></ul><ul><li>Addresses at the core of the Census </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Post-out and Back </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Follow-up </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Planning and estimation </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>Aims </li></ul><ul><li>To create: </li></ul><ul><li>best possible register of households from available sources and fieldwork </li></ul><ul><li>a register that key stakeholders, particularly LAs, are confident in </li></ul><ul><li>a register that is best value for money </li></ul><ul><li>Result will be a better basis for Census but NOT a list for general public use </li></ul>Addresses for 2011 Census
  8. 8. <ul><li>Addresses for 2011 Census </li></ul><ul><li>Sources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NLPG </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PAF (& AL2) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>VO Council Tax (& others ?) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All now good and getting better but none the full solution for Census </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. <ul><li>Addresses for 2011 Census </li></ul><ul><li>Processes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Match NLPG / PAF / AL2 / Council Tax </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Validate – Suppliers – LAs - Fieldcheck </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manage change – via COU & intercept </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Research – building the evidence </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Address register timetable <ul><li>Nov 08 Address register pilot completed </li></ul><ul><li>Dec 08 National address matching started </li></ul><ul><li>May 09 Anomalies to national providers </li></ul><ul><li>Sept, Oct 09 Regional LA workshops </li></ul><ul><li>Start Nov 09 Residue to LAs for resolution </li></ul><ul><li>End Feb 10 LA resolution complete </li></ul><ul><li>May 10 ONS field address check starts </li></ul><ul><li>Oct 10 Address check complete </li></ul><ul><li>Nov 10 Address list to printers </li></ul><ul><li>27 March 11 CENSUS DAY </li></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><li>Addresses for 2011 Census </li></ul><ul><li>Summary – 3 streams </li></ul><ul><li>Matching / validation of differences </li></ul><ul><li>Managing change </li></ul><ul><li>Additional research & the evidence base </li></ul>
  12. 12. Output Geography for 2011 Census
  13. 13. <ul><li>Output Geography for 2011 Census </li></ul><ul><li>Maintaining Output Areas and Super Output Areas in 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>Creating a new, nesting set of zones for workplace statistics </li></ul><ul><li>A set of Upper layer SOAs? </li></ul>
  14. 14. <ul><li>Strong support for: </li></ul><ul><li>Stability </li></ul><ul><li>Easy/free licensing of boundaries </li></ul><ul><li>Mean high water boundary set </li></ul><ul><li>England/Scotland alignment </li></ul><ul><li>Some but less support (in descending order) for: </li></ul><ul><li>Aligning boundaries to real world features </li></ul><ul><li>Separating communal establishments </li></ul><ul><li>Building zones based on workplace </li></ul><ul><li>Building an Upper layer of SOAs </li></ul>2007 Output Geography consultation
  15. 15. Policy for 2011 Output Geographies <ul><ul><li>no change to existing OA/SOAs before 2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>where changes made to 2001 OAs/SOAs, to no more than 5% of the OAs - may be significantly less </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>common boundary between England and Scotland. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>set of boundaries to Mean High Water as well as Extent of the Realm </li></ul></ul><ul><li>retain mix of communal and household addresses to prevent disclosure of a single establishment </li></ul><ul><li>consider set of zones derived from OAs more suited for workplace statistics </li></ul>
  16. 16. <ul><li>175,000 Output Areas </li></ul><ul><li>Mean 297 persons; 123 households </li></ul><ul><li>Building blocks for “neighbourhood” geographies: Super Output Areas (LSOAs, MSOAs) </li></ul>2001 Output Areas (E&W)
  17. 17. <ul><li>Automated zone design </li></ul><ul><li>Synthetic postcode polygons </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Address-based thiessen polygons dissolved to create postcode polygons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nested within wards/parishes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Respecting road centrelines where possible </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Output Areas (OAs) optimised for: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population/household thresholds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Homogeneity of population size </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Internal homogeneity of accommodation type and tenure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shape </li></ul></ul>2001 Output Area zone design
  18. 18. <ul><li>Population growth, especially migration </li></ul><ul><li>More and smaller households </li></ul><ul><li>Newly built properties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greenfield/new land </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Brownfield/in-filling </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sub-division of existing properties </li></ul><ul><li>Changing socio-economic characteristics of areas </li></ul>Changes since 2001
  19. 19. How much change by 2011? 2001-2005 Output Area threshold breaches, based on mid-year population estimates OAs: lower threshold = 100 people; upper threshold = 625 people (2 * target) Population thresholds = 2.5 * household thresholds 175416 1189 173859 368 2005 totals 584 506 78 0 2001 above 174382 682 173553 147 2001 within 450 1 228 221 2001 below 2001 totals 2005 above 2005 within 2005 below 99.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
  20. 20. <ul><li>Most OAs (and LSOAs, MSOAs) unlikely to have breached thresholds by 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>BUT, changes clustered geographically, so could breach badly in some areas </li></ul><ul><li>Some areas already known to be problematic in 2001 </li></ul>How much change by 2011?
  21. 21. Census2011Geog project <ul><li>ESRC funded research by Southampton University </li></ul><ul><li>Research automating procedures for splitting/merging OA/SOAs </li></ul><ul><li>Diverse Study areas of population increase and decrease to breach population thresholds </li></ul><ul><li>Look at using street blocks as well as postcode blocks </li></ul><ul><li>Plan to test algorithm on 2009 Rehearsal data </li></ul>
  22. 22. 2001 OAs 2001 LSOAs Above upper threshold Within thresholds Below lower threshold Merge (merge 2001 OAs) Split (aggregate postcodes/ street blocks) 2011 OAs 2011 OAs 2011 OAs Append 2011 OAs Postcodes/Street blocks For a 2001 LAD/UA Automated maintenance procedures
  23. 23. <ul><li>ONS and DoT co-sponsoring research by Southampton University to create a more suitable output geography for workplace statistics </li></ul><ul><li>Workplace Zone geography will either maintain, split or merge the existing OAs. </li></ul><ul><li>Set of Workplace Zones can be created and piloted in early 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>Wide ranging user group guiding the research. </li></ul>Workplace Zones
  24. 24. <ul><li>OAs/SOAs – are any unfit for purpose as a statistical geography? </li></ul><ul><li>Upper layer SOAs – do you want a national set? </li></ul><ul><li>Views on geography policy </li></ul>Census Output consultation 2009
  25. 25. Questions?