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WaveRiders: Leading the Future Megatrends


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Summary of Peter Fisk's keynote at the QSP Summit in Porto, March 2020 ... Exploring a world of incredible change, how markets and business are being fundamentally recoded, and what it takes to lead the future ... More information at or

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WaveRiders: Leading the Future Megatrends

  1. 1. Email: Website: Twitter: @geniusworks WAVERIDERS Leading the future megatrends Professor Peter Fisk QSP Summit Porto, 27 March 2020
  2. 2. A quick summary … • We live in a time of incredible change. Dramatic, pervasive, and relentless. More change in the next 10 years than the last 250 years. Incredible technologies, expectant consumers, climate crisis, social distrust, and much more. The biggest question for leaders is “How do you see the future?” • The old codes of business don’t work anymore. The most innovative companies - from Alibaba and Bytedance, to Casper and Deepmind - succeed with new codes. So what are the new ideas to win in a fast and dynamic world of Asian renaissance, entrepreneurial supremacy, social conscience and smarter machines? • How will you embrace the megatrends? Disruptive technologies, connected and intelligent; economic power shifts, 80% of the middle class in emerging markets; resource scarcity, where water is the biggest risk; demographic change, where markets are older, demanding and mobile; and rapid urbanisation, 33 of the 45 megacities in Asia. • Where do you start? With a future mindset. Start from the future back, and outside in. Seek purpose before profit. Connect talent and technology. Turn hierarchies into ecosystems. And what does it take to lead in this future? Curiosity and imagination, humanity and responsibility, transformation and collaboration, grit and impact. • Do you have the courage to create a better future, for yourself and your business? Time to be inspired by the passion of Tan Le, the vision of Masayoshi Son, endurance of Eliud Kipchoge, to transform like Satya Nadella, connect like Mikkel Bjergso, create legacy like Jack Ma, and realise dreams like JK Rowling. WAVERIDERS … Leading the future megatrends
  3. 3. Leading the FutureRiding the Megatrends Business Recoded
  4. 4. How do you see the future?
  5. 5. We live in a world of relentless change
  6. 6. More change in the next 10 years Than in the last 250 years
  7. 7. Mercedes Benz AVTR
  8. 8. Personal healthcare for $99
  9. 9. Alibaba’s gamified $38bn day
  10. 10. Reliance’s “free” Jio phone in India
  11. 11. Glossier’s C2C beauty model
  12. 12. The world’s largest sports event
  13. 13. Maersk’s blockchain logistics
  14. 14. Anything is possible
  15. 15. Ideas world
  16. 16. • Shifting economic power • Resource scarcity • Technological breakthrough • Social change • Rapid urbanisation Sources: BlackRock, Bloomberg, Deloitte, IFTF, McKinsey, PwC, WEF, World Bank Megatrends 2020-2030
  17. 17. 1. Shifting economic power Share of world GDP (PPPs) from 2016 to 2030 China will be the new global superpower Emerging economies are the growth markets Asia also has huge untapped natural resources Chinese entrepreneurial growth is relentless Power shift from west to east Learn from the east not the west CHANGESIMPACTS Sources: BlackRock, Bloomberg, Deloitte, IFTF, McKinsey, PwC, WEF, World Bank Megatrends 2020-2030
  18. 18. 2. Resource scarcity Increase carbon emissions drive global warming Increase strain on the planet’s resources Oil becomes increasingly scarce resource Shift from oil to clean energy More produce, less inputs Transformation of carbon-based mobility CHANGESIMPACTS Sources: BlackRock, Bloomberg, Deloitte, IFTF, McKinsey, PwC, WEF, World Bank Megatrends 2020-2030
  19. 19. 3. Technological breakthrough Data is the new oil; data connects the world Pace of technological change is exponential Technology increasingly automates humanity AI and robotics drive improved lifestyles Connected and intelligent life Healthcare is fundamentally transformed by tech CHANGESIMPACTS Annual growth rates of emerging technologies Growth of global data (1ZB is a trillion GB) Sources: BlackRock, Bloomberg, Deloitte, IFTF, McKinsey, PwC, WEF, World Bank Megatrends 2020-2030
  20. 20. 4. Social change More older people, fewer younger people Global population continues to grow More inequality, more migration, more diversity Food demand and diverse preferences Healthcare revolution for ageing population Nations become less meaningful CHANGESIMPACTS Sources: BlackRock, Bloomberg, Deloitte, IFTF, McKinsey, PwC, WEF, World Bank Megatrends 2020-2030 Global migration
  21. 21. 5. Rapid urbanisation Megatrends 2020-2030 Life is better in cities Global migration to cities Growth of Asian and African megacities Healthcare and security become key Smart cities, new infrastructure Cities become more powerful than nations CHANGESIMPACTS Sources: BlackRock, Bloomberg, Deloitte, IFTF, McKinsey, PwC, WEF, World Bank
  22. 22. Emerging themes for action Megatrends 2020-2030 Sources: Deloitte
  23. 23. Example: $145bn disruption to financial servicesWhat does the mean for education? +genius A world of relentless change
  24. 24. A world of relentless change
  25. 25. A world of relentless change
  26. 26. A world of relentless change
  27. 27. A world of relentless change
  28. 28. Meituan Dianping
  29. 29. The future isn’t like it used to be © Peter Fisk 2019 FUTUREHISTORY Unpredictable Predictable Stability Efficiency Optimisation Agility Innovation Experimentation
  30. 30. East Small West Big ProfitVolume
  31. 31. Consumer Pull Individual Business Push Average
  32. 32. ImaginationCapability NetworksChains ExponentialImprovement
  33. 33. Leading the FutureRiding the Megatrends Business Recoded
  34. 34. es 1. 23 & Me 2. Aravind 3. CVS Health 4. Editas 5. Intuitive Surgical 6. Narayana Hosp 7. OneOme 8. Organova 9. PatientsLikeMe 10. Second Sight 1. Amazon 2. Aussie Farmers 3. Casper 4. Etsy 5. Glossier 6. Positive Luxury 7. Rapha 8. Supreme 9. Trader Joe’s 10. Warby Parker 1. Apple 2. Beauty’in 3. DJI 4. Go Pro 5. Lego 6. Method 7. Natura 8. Nike+ 9. Oculus Rift 10. Renova 1. Alibaba 2. ARM 3. Darktrace 4. Google X 5. Huawei 6. Magic Leap 7. Raspberry Pi 8. Reliance Jio 9. Samsung 10. Tencent 1. Aeromobil 2. Air Asia 3. Airbnb 4. Emirates 5. HyperloopOne 6. Kulula 7. Ofo 8. RedBus 9. Uber 10. Zipcars 1. 3DHubs 2. Aerofarms 3. Braskem 4. Corning 5. Dyson 6. Local Motors 7. Space X 8. Syngenta 9. Tata 10. Tesla 1. Ava Winery 2. Brewdog 3. GrameenDanone 4. Graze 5. HelloFresh 6. Juan Valdez 7. LA Organic 8. Moa Beer 9. Nespresso 10. Zespri 1. 1Atelier 2. Agua Bendita 3. Fenty Beauty 4. Jonny Cupcake 5. Patagonia 6. RentTheRunway 7. Shang Xia 8. Stitch Fix 9. Threadless 10. Tom’s 1. Aspiration 2. Comm Bank 3. Fidor 4. First National 5. Moven 6. M-Pesa 7. Square 8. Umpqau 9. Zidisha 10. Zhong An 1. Buzzfeed 2. ByteDance 3. FanDual 4. Dalian Wanda 5. Live Nation 6. Netflix 7. Red Bull 8. Udacity 9. Ushahida 10. ViceMedia futureproduct futurefashion futurefood futurehealth futuretech futuremakersfuturebank futuretravel T h e p N/S American brands European brands African/Arab brands Asia/Pacific brands futuremedia 1. Ashoka 2. IBM Watson 3. IDEO 4. Janicki BioEnergy 5. Kickstarter 6. Li & Fung 7. Planetary Resrcs 8. Scanadu 9. VIPKid 10. WeWork 1. Bitcoin 2. City FC 3. Collectivity 4. e-Estonia 5. ParkRun 6. Patreon 7. PewDiePie 8. Social Capital 9. The Muse 10. You futureservice futurebrands © Peter Fisk 2018 futurestore
  35. 35. Hyperloop JioPhone H&M Amazon Change Why Speed
  36. 36. Li and Fung Tencent Alibaba 3DHubs networked
  37. 37. DeepMind Fidor Bank Netflix Intuitive Surgical intelligent
  38. 38. Airbnb Nike+ Lego Glossier collaborative
  39. 39. audacious Google X Red Bull Syngenta Nike
  40. 40. ARMInspired by ARM
  41. 41. Inspired by Haier
  42. 42. 10,000 microbusinesses
  43. 43. Inspired by Renova
  44. 44. 20th v 21st Century Business © Peter Fisk 2019 Today Future Corporates Ecosystems Optimisation Innovation Physical Digital Hierarchies Networked Experts Integrators Functions Projects Analytical Intuitive Shareholders Society Profit Progress
  45. 45. 21st Century Business
  46. 46. © Peter Fisk 2019 21st Century Business
  47. 47. Platform business models
  48. 48. DNAofthe21stCenturyBusiness The 21st Century Business is enlightened and energised by a changing world. It harnesses the power of human ingenuity and intelligent technologies to be a force for progress in society, creating and sharing value amongst all participants. DNAofthe21stCenturyBusiness
  49. 49. • Future shaping • Embracing ambiguity • Integrating people • Driving change • Amplifying potential INSPIRING LEADERSHIP • Diverse teaming • Project clusters • Dynamic resourcing • Continual learning • Augmenting humanity CREATIVE TALENT • Meaningful purpose • Focused relevance • Leveraged assets • Self-tuning adaption • Evolving portfolio DYNAMIC STRATEGY • Growth mindset • Energising spirit • Collective momentum • Transparent and ethical • Continuous learning PROGRESSIVE CULTURE • Customer sensing • Moonshot thinking • Market multipliers • Experiential brands • Communally engaging MARKET MAKING • Network structure • Butterfly centred • Intelligent automation • Positive sustainability • Smart ecosystem AGILE ORGANISATION • Deep insight • Intuitive design • Technology enabled • Fast experimentation • Adapt and scale RELENTLESS INNOVATION • Customer enabling • Growth accelerating • Society enhancing • Personally fulfilling • Future sustaining EXPONENTIAL IMPACT DNAofthe21stCenturyBusiness © Peter Fisk 2019 • Aligned delivery • Efficient processes • Fast and precise • Collaborative working • Metrics and rewards SEAMLESS ACTION DNAofthe21stCenturyBusiness
  50. 50. Leading the FutureRiding the Megatrends Business Recoded
  51. 51. What will come next? Where to focus? How to deliver the future faster? Jim Hagemann Snabe Chairman Siemens, Maersk Chair of WEF Technology Council
  52. 52. Tan Le
  53. 53. Mikkel Bjergso
  54. 54. Zhang Xin
  55. 55. Ilkka Paananan
  56. 56. How to lead change? • Change is relentless • Change is driven from outside • Change is complex and takes time • Change is personal and organizational • Change is opportunity to create better
  57. 57. Curious Intuitive Creative Collaborative Empathetic Responsible Courageous How to lead the future?
  58. 58. Where to start?
  59. 59. +genius Futureback Now forward What is the future we want to create? 2025 Redefine how to move forwards 2020 © Peter Fisk 2018 Start from the future back1
  60. 60. +genius
  61. 61. 3 Year 5 Year VisionActivityResult VisionActivityResult VisionActivityResult “Future Back” Growth Roadmap 1 Year
  62. 62. PeopleBusiness Innovate from the “outside in” © Peter Fisk 2018 2
  63. 63. New disruptive technologies Big human challenges Radical innovations © Peter Fisk 2018 Solve important problems3
  64. 64. +genius Better view of the future Smarter ways to innovate Faster ability to implement © Peter Fisk 2018 Accelerate ideas to action4
  65. 65. Have a growth mindset5
  66. 66. +genius © Peter Fisk 2018 Fixed Mindset Growth Mindset
  67. 67. +genius © Peter Fisk 2018
  68. 68. Do you have the courage to create a better future?
  69. 69. Acting with speed and agility Connecting ideas and people Passion to make life better Having an audacious attitude Shaping your own vision Making sense of change Persisting to make it happen © Peter Fisk 2018
  70. 70. Be bold Be brave Be brilliant
  71. 71. How will you lead the future? Peter Fisk is a global thought leader … on the future of business, innovation and growth. He is a business author, keynote speaker, business school professor and strategic advisor. With a physics degree, he managed brands like Concorde, led a strategy consulting firm, was CEO of the world’s largest professional marketing network, and cofounded a technology-based start-up. He is now: • Professor of Strategy and Innovation at IE Business School in Madrid, where he is also Academic Director of their flagship Global Advanced Management Program for senior executives. He combines leadership, strategy and innovation disciplines, driven by the challenges and opportunities a new world of technological change. • Founder of GeniusWorks, a future strategy consulting firm based in London, working with business leadership teams to help them explore their future growth. He combines a stretching, inspiring, methodological and collaborative approach to help teams achieve more together. • Director of Thinkers50 Global, bringing together the best ideas in the world for business, and ranks the world’s top business thinkers. He also founded and hosts the European Business Forum, held each year in the Danish city of Odense, which has become “the Davos of business thinking”. Author of 7 business books including Gamechangers which explores the innovative business strategies of 100 companies, Creative Genius on strategic innovation inspired by Leonard da Vinci, People Planet Profit on sustainability, and Marketing Genius, how to accelerate growth. The books have been translated into 35 languages. Works with the leadership teams of many innovative companies, including Adidas, Aeroflot, American Express, Aptar, Arla Foods, Aster, Bayer, BNP Paribas, Bosch, Cartier, Coca Cola, Coty, Disney, Eczacibasi, Endesa, GSK, Koc, McKinsey, Microsoft, Nestle, Nordea, Pfizer, Proctor & Gamble, PwC, Red Bull, Samsung, Santander, Savola, Takeda, UAE Government, Unilever, Vifor, Virgin, Visa, Vodafone, Volkswagen, Yildiz, Zain, and many more. Email: Web: Twitter: @geniusworks
  72. 72. @geniusworks