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Leading from the Future Back

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Summary of Peter Fisk's keynote at KEBA 50th Anniversary in Linz, Austria ... how to explore the future, then work backwards, to shape it your advantage ... More at www.theGeniusWorks.com or email peterfisk@peterfisk.com

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Leading from the Future Back

  1. 1. FUTURE BACK peterfisk@peterfisk.com theGeniusWorks.com @geniusworks
  2. 2. Leaders of the future Journey from the future back Disruptive innovation
  3. 3. We live in an incredible time
  4. 4. Next decade of incredible change More change in the next 10 years Than in the last 250 years
  5. 5. The rise of machines, cities, humanity …
  6. 6. … the end of computers, oil, glaciers
  7. 7. What will the future look like?Journey from the “future back” 2030 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2029 2027 2025 2023 2021
  8. 8. What will the future look like?Journey from the “future back” 2030 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Asteroid mining takes off Driverless cars now dominate 3d printed food is normal High resolution bionic eyes Hyperloop launches in Mumbai Micro-proteins become popular Vertical farming in Arab/Africa DNA profiling for everyone Brain as control device Life on Mars 8bn people on Earth India is largest nation Arctic ice cap melts Carbon fuels are banned China is largest economy Sagrada Familia finished Saudis leaders in space Education dominates online First asteroid landing 2029 2027 2025 2023 2021 Wireless electricity in homes
  9. 9. Sophia is the new Saudi
  10. 10. Starship’s robot deliveries
  11. 11. Driving towards driverless
  12. 12. Nintendo Labo made by cardboard
  13. 13. The world’s biggest sports event
  14. 14. $99 to profile your DNA
  15. 15. Platforms take you to new markets
  16. 16. ThyssenKrupp’s “multi” elevators
  17. 17. 3D printed homes for $4000
  18. 18. Reliance’s “free” Jio phone in India
  19. 19. Amazon’s local surprises
  20. 20. Anything is possible
  21. 21. Tesla is now bigger than Ford
  22. 22. Xiaomi, the new AppleHyperloop redefines travel
  23. 23. SpaceX redefines space travel
  24. 24. Rocket Lab in New Zealand
  25. 25. Battery-powered, 3D-printed, $5m
  26. 26. Anything is possible
  27. 27. Tectonic shifts in power
  28. 28. East Small West Big +genius ProfitVolume
  29. 29. Consumer Many Individual Business Few Average +genius
  30. 30. ImaginationCapability +genius TalentExperience ExponentialImprovement
  31. 31. Journey from the future back Disruptive innovation
  32. 32. Digital footprint erasers Asteroid mining Human head transplants Conversation interfaces Space solar power 100 disruptive technologiesSmart nappies Deep ocean wind farms Vertical agriculture Wireless energy transfer Cryptocurrencies Concentrated solar power Predictive policing Micro-scale ambient energy harvesting Robotic care companions Smart control of appliances Cultured meat Delivery robots and passenger drones Distributed ledgers Precision agriculture Autonomous vehicles Intention decoding algorithms Balloon-powered internet Powered exoskeletons Computerised shoes and clothing Airborne wind turbines (high altitude) Avatar companions Metallic hydrogen energy storage Autonomous ships and submarines Resource gamification Water harvesting from air Drone freight delivery Autonomous passenger aircraft 3D-printing of food and pharmaceuticals Medical tricorders Smart flooring and carpets Diagnostic toilets Smart energy grids Algal bio-fuels Human organ printing Artificial human blood substitute Mega-scale desalination Self-writing software Public mood monitoring machines Programmable bacteria Peer-to-peer energy trading and transmission Lifelong personal avatar assistants Smart dust Predictive gene-based healthcare Automated knowledge discovery Autonomous robotic surgery Emotionally aware machines Humanoid sex-robots Human bio hacking Internet of DNA Vacuum-tube transport Scram jets Smart glasses and contact lenses Pollution-eating buildings Broadcasting of electricity Bio-plastics Swarm robotics 4-dimenional materials (and printing) New (Nano) materials Fusion power Low-cost space travel Colonisation of another planet Thought control machine interfaces Dream reading and recording Planetary-scale spectroscopy Implantable phones e-tagging of new-borns Male pregnancy and artificial wombs DNA data storage Genomic vaccines Quantum safe cryptography Cognitive prosthetics Data uploading to the brain Conversational machine interfaces Life-expectancy algorithms Stratospheric aerosols Battlefield robots AI advisors and decision-making machines AI board members and politicians Invisibility shields Factory photosynthesis Trans human technologies Digital footprint eraser Personal digital shields Human head transplants Human cloning and de-extinction Distributed autonomous corporations Space solar power Space elevators Fully immersive VR Artificial consciousness Telepathy Reactionless drive Whole Earth virtualisation Shape shifting matter
  33. 33. Smart nappies Deep ocean wind farms Vertical agriculture Wireless energy transfer Cryptocurrencies Concentrated solar power Predictive policing Micro-scale ambient energy harvesting Robotic care companions Smart control of appliances Cultured meat Delivery robots and passenger drones Distributed ledgers Precision agriculture Autonomous vehicles Intention decoding algorithms Balloon-powered internet Powered exoskeletons Computerised shoes and clothing Airborne wind turbines (high altitude) Avatar companions Metallic hydrogen energy storage Autonomous ships and submarines Resource gamification Water harvesting from air Drone freight delivery Autonomous passenger aircraft 3D-printing of food and pharmaceuticals Medical tricorders Smart flooring and carpets Diagnostic toilets Smart energy grids Algal bio-fuels Human organ printing Artificial human blood substitute Mega-scale desalination Self-writing software Public mood monitoring machines Programmable bacteria Peer-to-peer energy trading and transmission Lifelong personal avatar assistants Smart dust Predictive gene-based healthcare Automated knowledge discovery Autonomous robotic surgery Emotionally aware machines Humanoid sex-robots Human bio hacking Internet of DNA Vacuum-tube transport Scram jets Smart glasses and contact lenses Pollution-eating buildings Broadcasting of electricity Bio-plastics Swarm robotics 4-dimenional materials (and printing) New (Nano) materials Fusion power Low-cost space travel Colonisation of another planet Thought control machine interfaces Dream reading and recording Planetary-scale spectroscopy Implantable phones e-tagging of new-borns Male pregnancy and artificial wombs DNA data storage Genomic vaccines Quantum safe cryptography Cognitive prosthetics Data uploading to the brain Conversational machine interfaces Life-expectancy algorithms Stratospheric aerosols Battlefield robots AI advisors and decision-making machines AI board members and politicians Invisibility shields Factory photosynthesis Trans human technologies Digital footprint eraser Personal digital shields Human head transplants Human cloning and de-extinction Distributed autonomous corporations Space solar power Space elevators Fully immersive VR Artificial consciousness Telepathy Reactionless drive Whole Earth virtualisation Shape shifting matter Exponential growth
  34. 34. Fingernail Notebook Hand House Earth 3 folds Thickness of folder paper 7 folds 10 folds 17 folds 30 folds What does “exponential” really mean?
  35. 35. Exponential growth = ideas and networks
  36. 36. The Moonshot Factory
  37. 37. Why be 10% better? When you could be 10x better?
  38. 38. es 1. 23 & Me 2. Aravind 3. CVS Health 4. Editas 5. Intuitive Surgical 6. Narayana Hosp 7. OneOme 8. Organova 9. PatientsLikeMe 10. Second Sight 1. Amazon 2. Aussie Farmers 3. Casper 4. Etsy 5. Glossier 6. Positive Luxury 7. Rapha 8. Supreme 9. Trader Joe’s 10. Warby Parker 1. Apple 2. Beauty’in 3. DJI 4. Go Pro 5. Lego 6. Method 7. Natura 8. Nike+ 9. Oculus Rift 10. Renova 1. Alibaba 2. ARM 3. Darktrace 4. Google X 5. Huawei 6. Magic Leap 7. Raspberry Pi 8. Reliance Jio 9. Samsung 10. Tencent 1. Aeromobil 2. Air Asia 3. Airbnb 4. Emirates 5. HyperloopOne 6. Kulula 7. Ofo 8. RedBus 9. Uber 10. Zipcars 1. 3DHubs 2. Aerofarms 3. Braskem 4. Corning 5. Dyson 6. Local Motors 7. Space X 8. Syngenta 9. Tata 10. Tesla 1. Ava Winery 2. Brewdog 3. GrameenDanone 4. Graze 5. HelloFresh 6. Juan Valdez 7. LA Organic 8. Moa Beer 9. Nespresso 10. Zespri 1. 1Atelier 2. Agua Bendita 3. Fenty Beauty 4. Jonny Cupcake 5. Patagonia 6. RentTheRunway 7. Shang Xia 8. Stitch Fix 9. Threadless 10. Tom’s 1. Aspiration 2. Comm Bank 3. Fidor 4. First National 5. Moven 6. M-Pesa 7. Square 8. Umpqau 9. Zidisha 10. Zhong An 1. Buzzfeed 2. ByteDance 3. FanDual 4. Dalian Wanda 5. Live Nation 6. Netflix 7. Red Bull 8. Udacity 9. Ushahida 10. ViceMedia futureproduct futurefashion futurefood futurehealth futuretech futuremakersfuturebank futuretravel T h e p N/S American brands European brands African/Arab brands Asia/Pacific brands futuremedia 1. Ashoka 2. IBM Watson 3. IDEO 4. Janicki BioEnergy 5. Kickstarter 6. Li & Fung 7. Planetary Resrcs 8. Scanadu 9. VIPKid 10. WeWork 1. Bitcoin 2. City FC 3. Collectivity 4. e-Estonia 5. ParkRun 6. Patreon 7. PewDiePie 8. Social Capital 9. The Muse 10. You futureservice futurebrands © Peter Fisk 2018 peterfisk@peterfisk.com www.theGeniusWorks.com futurestore
  39. 39. audacious Google X 23 and Me Syngenta Tesla Motors
  40. 40. Li and Fung Tencent Alibaba 3DHubs networked
  41. 41. DeepMind Fidor Bank Scanadu Intuitive Surgical intelligent
  42. 42. Airbnb Nike+ Lego Threadless collaborative
  43. 43. Hyperloop JioPhone H&M Amazon Change Why Speed
  44. 44. Leaders of the future Journey from the future back Disruptive innovation
  45. 45. © Peter Fisk 2015 More details in the new “Gamechangers” book Welcome to “Tomorrowland”
  46. 46. +genius 1. Start from the “future Back” Futureback Now forward What is the future we want to create? 2023 Redefine how to move forwards 2019 © Peter Fisk 2018 www.theGeniusWorks.com
  47. 47. +genius
  48. 48. 2019 2021 2023 Vision Vision Vision “Future Back” Growth Roadmap
  49. 49. 2021 2023 VisionActivity VisionActivity VisionActivity “Future Back” Growth Roadmap 2019
  50. 50. 2021 2023 VisionActivityResult VisionActivityResult VisionActivityResult “Future Back” Growth Roadmap 2019
  51. 51. CustomerBusiness 2. Reframe your business “outside in” © Peter Fisk 2018 www.theGeniusWorks.com
  52. 52. © Peter Fisk 2018 www.theGeniusWorks.com 3. Solve important problems New disruptive technologies Big human challenges Radical innovations
  53. 53. Make and distribute business model eg CocaCola Microsoft Spectrum retail business model eg Amazon Marks & Spencer Make and sell direct business model eg BMW, HSBC Niche retail business model eg ToysRUs,Wiggle License to make business model eg ARM, Ed Hardy Curated retail business model eg Fab, Positive Luxury Membership club business model eg Costco, Quintessentially Crowdfunded ventures business model eg Kickstarter, Zidisha Opensourced community business model eg RedHat, MySQL Subscription payment business model eg FT.com, Graze Buyer and seller marketplace business model eg Etsy, NYSE Micro payments business model eg Flattr Grameen Danone Collaborative consumption business model eg Buzzcar, Regus Regular Replacement business model eg Gillette, Nespresso Branded Consortia business model eg Cisco, Spar Advertising or Sponsorship business model eg Google, Metro Newspapers Listed or Promoted business model eg Monster Linkedin Network builders business model eg Hotmail, Twitter Demand then Made business model eg ZaoZao, Threadless Auction retail business model eg eBay, Sotheby Knowledge and time business model eg McKinsey, Harvard Franchised retail business model eg McDonalds, Subway Certification and endorsement business model eg ISO, Verisign Remainder retail business model Eg Saks, Vente Privee Multulevel marketing business model eg Tupperware, Natura Group buying business model eg Groupon, Huddlebuy Reverse auction business model eg Priceline Freemarkets Shared rental business model eg Zilok, Hilton Tradeable currency business model eg Bitcoin Air Miles Freemium pay within business model eg Angry Bird, Coursera Transaction facilitator business model eg Paypal, Visa Pay as you go business model eg AzuriTech Techshop Dynamic pricing business model eg Expedia, Uber Reputation builders business model eg Tripadvisor, PaywithaTweet Customer data business model eg Facebook, 23andMe Non-profit business business model eg Oxfam Wikipedia Maker models Channel models Crowd models Payment models Exchange models Asset models4. Design new business models © Peter Fisk 2018 www.theGeniusWorks.com
  54. 54. +genius 5. Innovating with speed and agility Design Thinking Lean Implementation Agile Hacking © Peter Fisk 2018 www.theGeniusWorks.com
  55. 55. Innovation Partner Innovation Partner Innovation Partner Innovation Partner Innovation Partner Innovation Partner Shared vision Shared ideas Shared risk Shared reward Shared talent Shared action Innovation community 6. Partnering to innovate smarter and faster © Peter Fisk 2018 www.theGeniusWorks.com
  56. 56. +genius 7. Lead with a “growth mindset” Fixed Mindset Growth Mindset © Peter Fisk 2018 www.theGeniusWorks.com
  57. 57. “It’s always day one”
  58. 58. What will you do?
  59. 59. Acting with speed and agility Connecting ideas and people Passion to make life better Having an audacious attitude Shaping your own vision Making sense of change Persisting to make it happen © Peter Fisk 2018 www.theGeniusWorks.com
  60. 60. Be bold Be brave Be brilliant
  61. 61. Peter Fisk helps business leaders make sense of a fast-changing world, to find the best new opportunities for growth, to embrace the best new ideas through insight and creativity, to rethink their entire vision and strategy, business model and customer experience. Being 10% better is just enough to compete in today’s world, to stand still. The real question is how to be 10 times better, to get ahead, to stand out, to be the leader who helps the business create and deliver future success. Peter works across the world, helping business leaders to develop innovative strategies for business and brands. He is a thinker, advisor and practical entrepreneur. He is Professor of Strategy, Innovation and Marketing at IE Business School, one of the world’s top ranked business schools, whilst also founder and CEO of GeniusWorks, a boutique consulting firm, helping clients across every sector to make sense of fast-changing markets, and find new ways to think, compete and win. Having trained as a nuclear physicist, Peter moved to managing brands like Concorde at British Airways, helping Microsoft to adopt a value-based marketing model, and Virgin to launch into new markets. As a highly experienced consultant he has worked in every sector and region of the world. As CEO of the world’s largest marketing organisation, the Chartered Institute of Marketing, he became a global authority on what’s best and next in business and markets. Finding his own space, he founded GeniusWorks, with offices in London and Istanbul. He works with companies big and small, food to fashion, skincare to stock exchanges, high tech to human – and organisations as diverse as Aeroflot and Banyan Tree, Cartier to Coty, Coca Cola and Club Med, Cooperative and Courvoisier, Davidoff and DSM, Eczacibasi and Fat Face, Fosters and GSK, Hershey’s and Mars, M&S and Nestle, Microsoft and O2, Phillips and Philosophy, Red Bull and Savola, Santander and Skanska, Shell and Tata, Telia and Turkcell, Unilever and UAE Government , Virgin and Visa, Vodafone and Yapi Kredi – to think bigger and smarter, develop innovative strategies, bolder brands, and accelerate growth. Peter’s new book “Gamechangers: Are you ready to change the world?” explores the next generation of business and brands, shaking up markets, innovating and winning in new ways. Based on 100 global case studies, it explores the challenges of new markets, changing customers, brand building, new business models, real-time marketing, harnessing social media, inspiring leadership and positive impact. It has been nominated for Management Book of the Year. His other books include “Marketing Genius” explores the left and right-brain challenges of success, and is translated into 35 languages. It was followed by five others – “Business Genius” on leadership and strategy, “Customer Genius” on building a customer-centric business, “People Planet Profit” on sustainable innovation, and “Creative Genius”, the innovation handbook for business leaders, defining what it takes to be Leonardo da Vinci in the 21st Century. Peter features in the Guru Radar of Thinkers50, and was described by Business Strategy Journal as “one of the best new business thinkers”. His advice is sought after by business leaders around the world, he adds specialist expertise to key projects, combining new ideas with practical action, inspiration and impact. Helping you to find your own space, to be leaders of change – to be bold, brave and brilliant. Website:www.theGeniusWorks.com Email: peterfisk@peterfisk.com PeterFisk Inspiring new ideas Facilitating innovation Developing leaders
  62. 62. peterfisk@peterfisk.com theGeniusWorks.com @geniusworks

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