February Realtor Report

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February Realtor Report

  1. 1. It was just a matter of time…During the past year, as I’ve reported on shrinking housing inventories coupled with strong demand, many ofyou have asked me the same question – ‘why aren’t prices going up?’ There was no answer other than – ‘theyshould be’. Even the government can contravene the laws of nature for just so long.So after 4 years of relatively stable pricing, where annual medians for the region rose a scant 9% from 2009 –2012 ($234,974/$256,539), suddenly this year prices have started posted significant gains over last year.January’s median price was up 19% over last January ($217,924/$262,930) and February’s was up 14% overlast year ($237,842/$274,353). This is the highest median price we’ve seen for the region since August 2008when our median price dropped through $280,662 on its way to our low of $210,317 in April, 2009. We’re up23% from there.Most cities are scoring well with Temecula prices up 21% year over year $(279,009/$355,950), Murrieta up19% ($261,199/$322,574), Wildomar up 17% ($205,941/$246,302), Lake Elsinore up 17%($179,136/$215,502) and Menifee up 14% ($171,6245/$199,165). For the region only Canyon Lake had a yearover year decrease of 7% ($330,140/$306,625) but with the wildest gyrations in the region, Canyon Lake couldeasily post a 40% gain next month by selling a couple $1 million homes.In Murrieta, last month was the highest median price they’ve enjoyed in nearly 5 years, since April 2008 whenthe median hit $326,978 on its way down to $252,082 (1/10). For Temecula, they had a couple good monthslast November and December but prior to that this is the highest median since March 2008 when it hit$356,383 on its way down to $263,118 (1/10).So you don’t lose perspective, even with the recovery of 26%, at $355,950 Temecula is still 38% under its peakof $575,935 (6/06) and at $322,574 Murrieta is still 44% below its peak of $576,224 (5/06). But at least we’retrending in the right direction finally. That’s good news.Does this mean we’re out of the woods? Well, only time will tell on that. The next few months will be criticalas the feds deal (or no deal) with issues like our mortgage interest deduction and future of Fannie Mae,Freddie Mac and the FHA.Housing availability will also play a significant role in that recovery. Our year over year sales are down 18%(601/491) and our inventory of available homes is down a whopping 72% from last February (2,240/617) tojust a 1.4 months supply. Without those $1 million homes, where we still have a 24 month inventory, our real,salable inventory for the region dips to less than a month. We’re replacing just half of what we’re selling.New home builders are rushing to fill that inventory vacuum but their lead time to occupy reduces theimmediate impact they can have on the market. Benefitting from strong demand, new home builders are alsoenjoying anywhere from 12% to 30% pricing premium over comparably sized existing inventory.As demand across the country strengthens, some analysts are starting to bandy the term ‘bubble’ aroundagain. I’ve been seeing that potential developing locally for the past 6 months or so. So far we’re not intobubble territory as we can absorb a significant increase in pricing just to get back to where our normaldemand curve would place us. However…One more positive to note. In February standard sales accounted for 81% of our active inventory and 61% ofsold properties . There are only 8 bank-owned homes listed in Temecula (4%) and 9 in Murrieta (6%) as of acouple days ago. If you’re a buyer this spells a cutthroat market. If you’re a seller – happy days are here again(or at least you can hear the band warming up).
  2. 2. 250 Southwest California Homes Single Family Homes200 Unit Sales150100 50 0 3/11 6/11 9/11 12/11 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake February transaction volume:Temecula $42,713,976 Lake Elsinore $15,516,176Murrieta $41,612,059 Wildomar $7,389,053Menifee $23,619,849 Canyon Lake $6,132,500$400,000$350,000$300,000$250,000$200,000$150,000$100,000 Southwest California Homes Single Family Homes $50,000 Median Price $0 3/11 6/11 9/11 12/11 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake
  3. 3. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 2 1 2 1 12500 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 1 2 0 9 0 9 1 9 9 7 9 5 7 2 4 2 3 1 4 1 1 1 8 7 7 6 2 7 4 1 4 0 4 5 0 7 0 9 0 7 2 8 8 9 0 Southwest 1 7 9 7 9 8 8 72000 1 1 6 1 5 4 9 3 2 1 2 1 California 4 4 4 7 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 1 Inventory 2 1 2 6 9 11500 9 8 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 4 6 4 9 7 7 8 61000 2 1 2 5 7 6 5 8 2 5 8 9 1 1 7 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 2010 2011 2012 Our region has had 1.1 – 1.4 months inventory since last May. We are just now seeing the inevitable appreciation resulting from that demand.
  4. 4. 400 350 Southwest California 2 2 6 February Demand Chart 2 3 . 300 2 5 2 7 . 8 2 . 4 2 1 4 1 . 250 9 9 1 3 1 8 0 4 . 200 5 6 1 1 1 8 1 2 4 2 2 150 0 9 8 8 0 0 . 8 6 7 7 100 5 2 5 5 5 5 1 5 8 5 4 5 2 3 0 8 4 5 4 1 1 1 0 3 0 1 0 50 0 . . . . . . 6 0 2 6 2 9 3 5 0 On Market Pending Closed (Demand) Days on Market Months Supply Absorption rate * (Supply) Murrieta Temecula Lake Elsininore Menifee Canyon Lake Wildomar * Absorption rate - # of new listings for the month/# of sold listings for the month February 2012 February 2013 The only sector of the existing home market with • 2,240 homes for sale • 617 homes for sale room to grow is standard sales. We’re already • 561 homes sold • 491 homes sold selling 5 REO’s for every 4 listed and 12 short • 3.3 months supply • 1.4 months supply sales for every 6 listed. Appreciating prices will • 87 days on market • 57 days on market increase that seller pool and reduce the number • 110% absorption rate • 201% absorption rate of underwater homes in the region. February Market Activity By Sales Type Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale % of % of % of % of % of % of Active MKT Sold MKT Active MKT Sold MKT Active MKT Sold MKTTemecula 163 88% 80 67% 8 4% 10 8% 13 7% 28 23%Murrieta 133 86% 79 61% 9 6% 13 10% 10 6% 31 24%Wildomar 13 81% 14 47% 1 6% 3 10% 2 13% 12 40%LakeElsinore 63 72% 40 56% 8 9% 9 13% 17 19% 22 31%Menifee 76 70% 69 58% 16 15% 17 14% 14 13% 27 23%CanyonLake 58 89% 16 80% 2 3% 2 10% 5 8% 2 10%RegionalAverage 506 81% 298 61% 44 8% 54 11% 61 11% 122 25%
  5. 5. $600,000 California$500,000 US CA Price Trend$400,000$300,000$200,000$100,000 $0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 CA Prices Still Below Trend Line = Opportunity Meanwhile Pent-Up Demand for Housing is Real 38,000 13,500In thousands 36,000 575K 13,000 377K 34,000 12,500 Total Population, California 32,000 Number of Households, California (right axis) 12,000 Projected linear estimate Projection, based on U.S. 0.55% growth rate 30,000 11,500 2000- 2002- 2004- 2006- 2008- 2010- 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
  6. 6. C.A.R. reports 4th quarter 2012 housing affordabilityHigher home prices send California housing affordability lowerHigher home prices offset lower interest rates to reduce housing affordability in California during the fourth quarter of 2012,the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported. The percentage of home buyers who could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in Californiadecreased to 48 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, down from 49 percent in third-quarter 2012 and from 55 percent infourth-quarter 2011, according to C.A.R.’s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI).C.A.R.’s HAI measures the percentage of all households that can afford to purchase a median-priced, single-family home inCalifornia. C.A.R. also reports affordability indices for regions and select counties within the state. The Index is consideredthe most fundamental measure of housing well-being for home buyers in the state.Home buyers needed to earn a minimum annual income of $66,940 to qualify for the purchase of a $353,190 statewidemedian-priced, existing single-family home in the fourth quarter of 2012. The monthly payment, including taxes andinsurance on a 30-year fixed-rate loan, would be $1,670, assuming a 20 percent down payment and an effective compositeinterest rate of 3.49 percent. The effective composite interest rate in third-quarter 2012 was 3.72 percent and 4.30 percent inthe fourth quarter of 2011.Housing affordability results were mixed at the regional level, with affordability improving from the third quarter of 2012 inAlameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Los Angeles, Ventura, San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz, Fresno, and Kingscounties. However, homes in San Francisco, Solano, Riverside, San Bernardino, Monterey, Santa Barbara, Madera,Sacramento, and Tulare counties were less affordable during fourth quarter 2012.STATE/REGION/COUNTY Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2011Calif. Single-family home 48 49 55Los Angeles Metropolitan Area 50 51 56Calfi. Condo/Townhomes 59 60 63Inland Empire 67 68 71San Francisco Bay Area 34 35 42U.S. 69 67 70Alameda 36 34 39San Francisco Bay AreaContra-Costa (Central County) 31 28 37Marin 28 27 29Napa 48 45 50San Francisco 22 25 26San Mateo 24 24 29Santa Clara 32 32 40Solano 73 77 76Sonoma 46 46 51Los Angeles 44 42 48Southern CaliforniaOrange County 34 34 38San Bernardino 76 77 78Riverside County 62 63 66San Diego 43 43 46Ventura 48 47 49Monterey 50 52 56Central CoastSan Luis Obispo 40 37 41Santa Barbara 27 31 41Santa Cruz 34 30 37Fresno 70 69 71 rCentral ValleyKings County 76 74 r 75Madera 74 76 75Merced 74 74 77Placer County 64 64 67Sacramento 71 73 74Tulare 71 73 73
  7. 7. At an index of 76 percent, San Bernardino and Kings counties were the most affordable counties of thestate. Conversely, San Francisco County was the least affordable, with only 22 percent of the region’s householdsable to purchase the county’s median-priced home.To determine the approximate Homeowner Affordability Index for your city, just find the California City that mostclosely matches your city median from the preceding charts. For example, at $355,950, Temecula is closer to thestate average of $353,190 with an HAI of 48, than it is to the rest of Riverside County with a median of $240,840 andan HAI of 62. Murrieta at $322,574 is closer to Monterey at $329,000 and an HAI of 50. The true number ofprospective buyers in any market area is also a factor of the median income in that market. Thus our cities might ranksomewhat lower or higher on the HAI depending on the percentage of people in the area making the minimumqualifying income. Monthly Housing Minimum Median Home Payment C.A.R. Region Affordability Qualifying Price Including Taxes Index Income & Insurance Calif. Single-family home 48 $ 353,190 $ 1,670 $ 66,940 Los Angeles Metropolitan Area 50 $ 326,470 $ 1,550 $ 61,870 Calif. Condo/Townhomes 59 $ 272,760 $ 1,290 $ 51,690 Inland Empire 67 $ 209,260 $ 990 $ 39,660 San Francisco Bay Area 34 $ 593,220 $ 2,810 $ 112,420 U.S. 69 $ 178,900 $ 850 $ 33,900 Alameda 36 $ 522,890 $ 2,480 $ 99,100 San Francisco Bay Area Contra-Costa (Central County) 31 $ 631,530 $ 2,990 $ 119,680 Marin 28 $ 812,490 $ 3,850 $ 153,980 Napa 48 $ 385,200 $ 1,830 $ 73,000 San Francisco 22 $ 777,090 $ 3,680 $ 147,270 San Mateo 24 $ 782,500 $ 3,710 $ 148,300 Santa Clara 32 $ 685,000 $ 3,250 $ 129,820 Solano 73 $ 225,540 $ 1,070 $ 42,740 Sonoma 46 $ 382,560 $ 1,810 $ 72,500 Los Angeles 44 $ 350,080 $ 1,660 $ 66,350 Southern California Orange County 34 $ 568,600 $ 2,690 $ 107,760 San Bernardino 76 $ 152,860 $ 720 $ 28,970 Riverside County 62 $ 240,840 $ 1,140 $ 45,640 San Diego 43 $ 405,360 $ 1,920 $ 76,820 Ventura 48 $ 440,250 $ 2,090 $ 83,430 Monterey 50 $ 329,000 $ 1,560 $ 62,350 Central Coast 0 San Luis Obispo 40 $ 399,310 $ 1,890 $ 75,680 Santa Barbara 27 $ 546,510 $ 2,590 $ 103,570 Santa Cruz 34 $ 520,000 $ 2,460 $ 98,550 Fresno 70 $ 152,360 $ 720 $ 28,870 Central Valley 0 Kings County 76 $ 146,210 $ 690 $ 27,710 Madera 74 $ 133,750 $ 630 $ 25,350 Merced 74 $ 133,450 $ 630 $ 25,290 Placer County 64 $ 302,630 $ 1,430 $ 57,350 Sacramento 71 $ 193,190 $ 920 $ 36,610 Tulare 71 $ 141,810 $ 670 $ 26,880 Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 100 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 155,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles
  8. 8. NAR President Testifies on FHANAR President Gary Thomas last week testified before the Senate Banking Committee on the importance ofFHA in housing markets. In the testimony, Thomas explained that if FHA had not been providing insurance inthe last 5 years, housing prices would have fallen another 25%.Although FHA has fallen short of its required reserves, FHA has made significant changes to increase revenueand mitigate risks. Thomas cautioned about making arbitrary changes to FHA, such as further increasingcosts to consumers or limiting the use of the program to certain types of buyers, only for the sake of luringback private markets.NAR welcomes a reduction in FHAs market share when the private market returns, but Thomas stated that"we arent there yet! The 3.8% Tax Real Estate Scenarios & Examples Beginning January 1, 2013, a new 3.8 percent tax on some investment income took effect. Since this new tax will affect some real estate transactions, it is important for you to clearly understand the tax and how it could impact you. It’s a complicated tax, so you won’t be able to predict how it will affect every buyer or seller. To get you up to speed about this new tax legislation, the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® has developed an informational brochure. By clicking on the link above, you’ll find examples of different scenarios in which this new tax — passed by Congress in 2010 with the intent of generating an estimated $210 billion to help fund President Barack Obama’s health care and Medicare overhaul plans — could be relevant to your situation. Understand that this tax WILL NOT be imposed on all real estate transactions, a common misconception. Rather, effective this year, it may impose a 3.8% tax on some (but not all) income from interest, dividends, rents (less expenses) and capital gains (less capital losses). The tax will fall only on individuals with an adjusted gross income (AGI) above $200,000 and couples filing a joint return with more than $250,000 AGI. CAR Sponsors Debt Forgiveness BillsSB 30 (R. Calderon) and AB 42 (Perea) Debt Forgiveness Income Tax - (Sen. Joel Anderson is the bi-partisanco-author of SB 30). The federal government enacted the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 creating mortgagedebt forgiveness relieving borrowers from income tax liability on debt forgiven in a “short” sale. In late 2008the federal government extended this relief through December 31, 2012. This rule, which has been extendedseveral times in both federal and conforming California laws, expired on January 1, 2013. As part of the FiscalCliff deal signed by President Obama on January 2, 2013, mortgage cancellation relief was extended for oneyear, through January 1, 2014. C.A.R. is sponsoring SB 30 and AB 42 to make conforming changes in Californialaw effective January 1, 2013.Until this bill passes, California homeowners who short-sell their homes may be liable for taxes on the forgivendebt to the state. In order for the earliest possible resolution of this situation, the bill would need to bepassed quickly and by a 2/3 majority as an urgency matter. If it does pass but without the urgency, then thebill would not become law until 2014 and would need to be retroactive to 1/1/13 to keep it concurrent withthe federal bill.So banks and lenders have dried up our inventory of REO’s because of last year’s Homeowners Bill of Rightswhich encouraged them to pursue short sales rather than foreclosing on homes. Now the state has ratchetedup concern among those same short sellers by presenting the possibility that they will be taxed on theirforgiven debt. We better hope that prices rise fast enough to entice more standard home sellers into themarket. Otherwise our inventory will shrink to nothing.
  9. 9. Beige Book: Real estate markets strengthenNearly all twelve Federal Reserve districts reported modest to moderate growth in economic activity in the Fedslatest February Beige Book.Residential real estate markets posted the strongest results, with impressive growth throughout nearly all thedistricts as home prices rose amid falling inventories across the country, the report said.The Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, Minneapolis, San Francisco and St. Louis districts reported slight improvements.Meanwhile, Philadelphia real estate continued to report low-end home prices as firm or rising or increasing slightly,while high-end home prices continued to fall.Inventories also declined in nearly all districts, with Realtors in several districts concerned about the impact onfuture sales volume, the report noted.Home construction increased in most districts, with the exception of the Kansas City District where it was reportedas unchanged.Additionally, several districts noted ongoing strength in multifamily construction. However, the Atlanta andCleveland districts reported continued financing difficulties for builders.Overall commercial real estate conditions were mixed or slightly improved in most districts, the book stated.Commercial real estate activity grew modestly in the Atlanta, Philadelphia, Richmond, San Francisco and St. Louisdistricts. While Boston and New York reported mixed activity levels, Dallas and the Kansas City districts noted fewchanges. Economist Makes Bold Statement on Home PricesHome values could surge 35 percent without stretching housing affordability, Raj Dosaj, vice president of the homeprice index at LPS Applied Analytics, said during a recent webinar hosted by HousingWire.Dosaj says that the increase in home prices could be less than that if mortgage rates rise, which he says they arepredicted to do."During the peak of the housing run-up, affordability was stretched as the market sold off," Dosaj said. "As homeprices dropped, affordability dropped."Industry reports are showing home prices rebounding and rising across the country."There are definite signs that theres room for growth," said Dosaj. "Things are generally looking good for thehousing market."

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