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What Causes Armed Violence (OECD)

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What Causes Armed Violence (OECD)

  1. 1. Armed Violence Reduction International Network on Conflict and Fragility November, 2010
  2. 2. What is Armed Violence? DEFINITION Armed violence includes the use or threatened use of weapons to inflict injury, death or psychosocial harm which undermines development Armed violence includes the use or threatened use of weapons to inflict injury, death or psychosocial harm which undermines development Restricted to specific geographic areas Restricted to specific geographic areas Regional and transnational dimensions Regional and transnational dimensions Deeply gendered: men are main victims and perpetrators Deeply gendered: men are main victims and perpetrators Failure of public security, signals fragility Failure of public security, signals fragility Violence and crime in Kingston, Ciudad Juarez, Rio de Janeiro and Dili Violence and crime in Kingston, Ciudad Juarez, Rio de Janeiro and Dili • Linkage with organized crime • Border area issues (e.g. Kenya-Uganda) • Linkage with organized crime • Border area issues (e.g. Kenya-Uganda) Yet women suffer particularly from sexual and domestic violence Yet women suffer particularly from sexual and domestic violence Ungoverned spaces and conflicts in Darfur, Eastern DRC and Somaliland Ungoverned spaces and conflicts in Darfur, Eastern DRC and Somaliland CHARACTERISTICS EXAMPLES Conflict settings Non-conflict, high-crime settings
  3. 3. Where Does Armed Violence Occur?  Summary points Armed violence occurs in a variety of settings - from conflict, to non- conflict but crime- affected contexts. It hinders development at every stage Source: ODI, 2009
  4. 4. Ca. 740,000 lives are lost to armed violence (p.a.), 55,0000 of which due to conflict Why is Armed Violence a Problem? • Most conflicts occur in fragile states. No fragile state is set to achieve a single MDG • High crime-high violence areas in Middle Income Countries often have pockets of exclusion from basic services like health, safety and education • Conflict reduces GDP with ca. 2% p.a. • The average cost of a civil war is ca. $ 65 bn • The global cost of homicidal violence is ca. $ 95-160 billion p.a. Developing countries may spend between 10-15% of their GDP on law enforcement (5% in developed states )
  5. 5. What Causes Armed Violence? Summary points The causes of armed violence are extremely varied. The context is the starting point and integrated approaches are vital STRUCTURAL RISK FACTORS PROXIMATE RISK FACTORS
  6. 6. CAUSES Five variables shaping the character and outcomes of urban violence in Dili: Source: Muggah ed., Urban Violence in an Urban Village, Geneva Declaration, 2010 ISSUE Dili: four waves of urban violence since independence, causing hundreds of deaths. This followed a history of armed violence, mainly in the service of oppression since the early 19th century. The result has been a culture of impunity in ‘urban village’ Dili - a set of interconnected villages that are extensions of rural communities, and their grievances. Example: What Does Armed Violence Look Like?
  7. 7. How Can Armed Violence Be Addressed? Applying an AVR lens: a basic starting point for programming LINKAGES WITH STATEBUILDING & SECURITY SECTOR REFORM LINKAGES WITH CRIMINAL JUSTICE, RECONCILIATION, MEDIATION LINKAGES WITH SMALL ARMS CONTROL Source: OECD, Armed Violence Reduction, 2009
  8. 8. Assessing and Understanding the Problem • Programming is most effective when it has a solid evidence base, including good diagnostics of when, where, why and by whom violence is perpetrated. Data sources, methods and approaches matter. • Programs must be designed on the basis of verified assumptions about the drivers and triggers for violence. • It pays to take time to foster a participatory decision-making process. Bring communities together to identify development goals, define priorities, and implement small pilot projects. • Assess the security needs of different social groups in order to best meet those needs (e.g. youth, men, women, ethnic groups) • Assess whether the target community is “ready” for intervention? If sufficient capacity doesn’t exist, or security is too fragile, an intervention can put potential beneficiaries at more risk.
  9. 9. Direct and Indirect Programming ARMED VIOLENCE … e.g. large scale urban renewal schemes … e.g. employment schemes targeted at youth-at-risk … e.g. firearms control legislation
  10. 10. Examples: Armed Violence in Urban Areas Urban centers are home to half the world’s population. They are expected to absorb almost all new population growth over the next 25 years Urban centers are home to half the world’s population. They are expected to absorb almost all new population growth over the next 25 years Indirect interventions •Early childhood and parental programs •Conditional cash transfer programs for at risk groups •Urban upgrading •Targeted area-based employment schemes •Youth development and after school activities Indirect interventions •Early childhood and parental programs •Conditional cash transfer programs for at risk groups •Urban upgrading •Targeted area-based employment schemes •Youth development and after school activities Direct interventions •Hot spots and early warning response •Community policing •Community arbitration •Anti-gang strategies and mentorship •Arms collection, control and stockpile programs •Victim assistance activities Direct interventions •Hot spots and early warning response •Community policing •Community arbitration •Anti-gang strategies and mentorship •Arms collection, control and stockpile programs •Victim assistance activities Today’s cities – especially those that are growing very quickly - experience a convergence of factors that put them at risk for destabilizing levels of violence if they are not appropriately addressed Today’s cities – especially those that are growing very quickly - experience a convergence of factors that put them at risk for destabilizing levels of violence if they are not appropriately addressed Informed by a high quality and ongoing evidence base: e.g. in Latin America Municipal Crime and Violence Observatories are key sources for collecting data on people, perpetrators, instruments and institutions affected by armed violence
  11. 11. Examples: Boston and Port-au-Prince Source: World Bank, 2003; Muggah and Moestue, Social Integration Ergo Stabilization , 2010
  12. 12. Youth & Violence: A Nepali Example Program: Education and Income Generation in Nepal •A program targeting 15 districts to promote training for at-risk youth, employment and mitigate conflict. Key objectives: •Improved literacy, skills development and dispute resolution •Enhanced vocational training and employment opportunities •Increased rural income and agricultural productivity •Distribution of scholarships to incentive further learning General lessons •Avoid a narrow focus on repressive responses •Tailor development interventions to target "at- risk" groups •Adopt a comprehensive approach to youth violence reduction •Involve youth directly in all aspects of design, implementation and evaluation of interventions •Look for opportunities to address issues of youth exclusion via existing programs
  13. 13. The Global Panorama: Mapping Armed Violence Reduction Headline messages The mapping study underlines the need to: •Adopt AVR interventions that are multi-sector, multi-level and based on multiple partnerships •Be attentive to different local framings and discourses (AVR is not a common term) •Invest in direct and indirect AVR programming to optimize effect •Engage much more with sub-national, community based actors with a proven track record •Include a more explicit AVR focus in existing peacebuilding and statebuilding strategies for significant returns in local safety and security Headline messages The mapping study underlines the need to: •Adopt AVR interventions that are multi-sector, multi-level and based on multiple partnerships •Be attentive to different local framings and discourses (AVR is not a common term) •Invest in direct and indirect AVR programming to optimize effect •Engage much more with sub-national, community based actors with a proven track record •Include a more explicit AVR focus in existing peacebuilding and statebuilding strategies for significant returns in local safety and security Some key facts •The most common categories of armed violence addressed by all interventions are youth, domestic, interpersonal, urban and sexual violence •Considerably more AVR programs are classified as “indirect” than “direct” – an imbalance seems to exist •Most AVRP programmes featured a three year time horizon •Most direct AVR interventions targeted a combination of instruments and perpetrators or associated institutions (no clear trend) •Direct programming tended to be sensitive to sex and gender-related issues Some key facts •The most common categories of armed violence addressed by all interventions are youth, domestic, interpersonal, urban and sexual violence •Considerably more AVR programs are classified as “indirect” than “direct” – an imbalance seems to exist •Most AVRP programmes featured a three year time horizon •Most direct AVR interventions targeted a combination of instruments and perpetrators or associated institutions (no clear trend) •Direct programming tended to be sensitive to sex and gender-related issues AVR mapping study An inventory of AVR experience in six settings (Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Liberia, South Africa, and Timor-Leste) with 570 initiatives AVR mapping study An inventory of AVR experience in six settings (Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Liberia, South Africa, and Timor-Leste) with 570 initiatives Source: OECD and UNDP AVR mapping study, Small Arms Survey, 2010
  14. 14. Promising AVR practice Cases are… • Underway > 2 years • Have a monitoring & evaluation system • Are multi-sector and multi-dimensional • Include direct AVR programming • Contain information on outcomes
  15. 15. What can be done to reduce Armed Violence? Evidence suggests that effective interventions require: Evidence highlighted by the mapping study not in line with programming principles
  16. 16. For more information, visit: www.oecd.org/dac/incaf/sps www.genevadeclaration.org www.smallarmssurvey.org Thank you

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