globally, successes…                   # Countries with Civil Wars 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0  1960   1968     1976      ...
and challenges…   gang-related violence          political violence   cross-border violence   organized crime and traffick...
prolonged conflict keeps countries poor
national lessons: the virtuous cycle  Many useful  experiences of what  works and what does  not – Mozambique  to Timor Le...
restoring confidence                                    Core tools: Restoring confidence    Signals: Future policy        ...
transforming institutions                      CORE TOOLS: TRANSFORMING INSTITUTIONS     Citizen security                 ...
realism: transformation timelines                               Years to threshold at pace of:          INDICATOR         ...
international support: challenges International efforts have helped diminish global   violence but are often… •   Too slow...
focus on legitimate governance that provides citizensecurity, justice and jobs                       • Reorient assistance...
reform internal agency procedures                 • Speed                 • Volatility                 • Partnerships     ...
address transnational threats                 • Cross-border programming                   and regional capacity-         ...
forge a new consensus               • Respond to messages from citizen                  dissatisfaction and protests      ...
2011 WDR - key messages1.5 billion people live in countries affected by repeated cycles of political andcriminal violence—...
Sarah Cliffe - World Bank
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Sarah Cliffe - World Bank

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Sarah Cliffe - World Bank

  1. 1. globally, successes… # Countries with Civil Wars 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 Minor Wars (25-999 Battledeaths per Annum) Major Wars (1000+ Battledeaths per Annum) Total Wars
  2. 2. and challenges… gang-related violence political violence cross-border violence organized crime and trafficking
  3. 3. prolonged conflict keeps countries poor
  4. 4. national lessons: the virtuous cycle Many useful experiences of what works and what does not – Mozambique to Timor Leste, Chile to Indonesia to N. Ireland, g7+ statements
  5. 5. restoring confidence Core tools: Restoring confidence Signals: Future policy Signals: Immediate Supporting actions and priorities actions• Citizen security/human • Credible appointments • Risk and priority assessments security goals • Transparency in • Communicating costs of• Key principles and realistic expenditures inaction timelines for reforms • Budget allocations to • Simple plans and progress• Mix of state, community, priority areas measures on 2-3 early results NGO and international • Redeployment of security • Strategic communication capacity forces/new functions and services • Removal of abusive/discriminatory policies
  6. 6. transforming institutions CORE TOOLS: TRANSFORMING INSTITUTIONS Citizen security Justice Jobs and associated services Foundational reforms and ‘best-fit’ approachesSecurity sector reform: Justice sector reform: Multisectoral communityDesigned to deliver citizen independence and link to empowerment programssecurity benefits with security reforms; basicrealistic performance caseload processing; Employment programsoutcomes; dismantling extending justice servicescriminal networks; rural and Humanitarian delivery and socialcommunity policing Phasing anti-corruption protection measures: demonstrate national resources can be Macroeconomic policy focused on used for public good; use of consumer price volatility and social accountability employment mechanisms
  7. 7. realism: transformation timelines Years to threshold at pace of: INDICATOR fastest 20 fastest over threshold bureaucratic quality 20 12 corruption 27 14 military in politics 17 10 government effectiveness 36 13 rule of law 41 17
  8. 8. international support: challenges International efforts have helped diminish global violence but are often… • Too slow… • Too volatile… • Too quick to exit… • Too stove-piped… • Too “post-conflict” focused…insufficient emphasis on armed violence reduction across a range of contexts 9
  9. 9. focus on legitimate governance that provides citizensecurity, justice and jobs • Reorient assistance and address international capacity gaps • Mainstream armed violence reduction in development programming • Move from rhetoric of “coordination” to joint programs that link institution-building for justice, security and jobs
  10. 10. reform internal agency procedures • Speed • Volatility • Partnerships • Risk and results: – Better indicators of risks and results to inform dialogue with recipient and donor country stakeholders – Key is direct measurement of insecurity and citizen trust in institutions • Practical initiatives (e.g. Bank operationalization, Civcap)
  11. 11. address transnational threats • Cross-border programming and regional capacity- building • Added teeth on illicit global financial flows • Joint action on investigations and prosecutions between the jurisdictions
  12. 12. forge a new consensus • Respond to messages from citizen dissatisfaction and protests • Use experiences of middle income and least developed countries in reforms • Revive consensus on norms through global and regional bodies and recognise leadership in violence prevention
  13. 13. 2011 WDR - key messages1.5 billion people live in countries affected by repeated cycles of political andcriminal violence—causing human trauma and disrupting development.Strengthening the institutions that provide citizen security, justice and jobs—andalleviating the international stresses that undermine them—is crucial to breakcycles of violence.At country level, balancing short-term measures to restore confidence and long-term institution-building is key. Four tracks of international reform:•Increase assistance to build legitimate institutions that provide security, justiceand jobs•Reform internal agency procedures•Act globally and regionally, in particular on trafficking•Forge a new consensus between OECD, middle income and least developedcountries

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