1.
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The SkyNet funding bill is passed.
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The system goes online on August 4th, 1997.
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Human decisions are removed from strategic defense.
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SkyNet begins to learn at a geometric rate.
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It becomes self-aware at 2:14am Eastern time, August
29th
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In a panic, they try to pull the plug.
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And, Skynet fights back
Mark Proctor
Co-Creator
Project Lead

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History
 1960 – Arpanet
 1969 – Internet
 1985 - Clips
 1991 – Linux
 1993 – Red Hat
 1995 – Apache Http Server, Java
 1998 – Netscape Navigator
 1999 – JBoss
 2003 - Spring
 2004 – Eclipse
 2005 – Drools 2.0
 2006 – Red Hat / Jboss Acquisition
 2007 – Open Source Java

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Notable People
Richard Stallman
Eric S Raymond
Linux Torvalds

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Cathedral & the Bazaar
 Published 1997
● Cathedral
● GNU Emacs, GCC
● Bazaar
● Linux
 19 guidelines
● Scratching an Itch
● Given Enough Eyeballs
● Release Early, Release Often
 Linus' Law
● "given enough eyeballs, all bugs
are shallow“
 Convinced Netscape to OSS

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Free as in Free Speech
 Think of “free speech”, not “free beer”

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Licensing
 OSI
● Open Source Initiative
 GPL
● Copy Left
 LGPL
● Business friendly Copy Left
 BSD/MIT/ASL
● Business friendly
 Attribution/Adware
● Nagware

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Organisations

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Technologies
 GNU
 Linux
 Netscape
 Gnome / KDE
 MySQL / Postgresql
 Open Office
 Java
 Apache
● Tomcat, Apache Server
 Jboss AS
 Spring
 Eclipse
 Open Symphony
● Quartz
 Code Haus
● Maven, Groovy, Drools, ActiveMQ
 PHP
 Perl
 Samba
 Gimp

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Companies / Organisations
 RedHat, SCO, Debian, Slackware, SuSE (Linux)
 JBoss (Java)
 Spring (Java)
 O’Reilly (Documentation)
 VA Linux (Sourceforge, OSDN)
 Sun (Java, OpenOffice)
 IBM (Linux, Java, Eclipse)
 GNU Foundation (GNU/Linux)
 Electronic Frontiers Foundation [EFF]
 Apple (Darwin)

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Threats
 Digitial Content Control and Licensing
 Lock-out of free software from tenders
 Cloud
 Software Patents
 Commercial Attacks

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Failed OSS Attacks
 SCO
 Novel/Microsoft
 Oracle Linux

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Oracle “Clones” Red Hat At Half
the Price
 Oracle “clones” Red Hat in October 2006
● Announces distribution “based on” Red Hat Enterprise Linux
● Oracle charges half what Red Hat charges for “same” product
● Enterprise-class support from thousands of trained technicians
 Customer benefits include
● Full stack from single vendor (just like Microsoft)
● Savings on high software acquisition costs
● Simplify life by dealing with fewer vendors

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The Success So Far
 First 90 days download statistics
● 9,000 people download Oracle Linux
● 1,000,000 people download Fedora Core 6, another “free” Red
Hat “clone.”
 A veritable groundswell of support
● Reference accounts, particularly running non-Oracle software
● Ecosystem of third-party vendors stampeding to support Oracle
Linux

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Effect on Red Hat Pricing
 What price changes did Red Hat make immediately in the
wake of the Oracle announcement?
● None. Zero, zip, nada.
● We’re not hearing of any individual deal discounting.
● Red Hat knows that they have a premium brand, so ignoring
people competing on price is the right strategy.
 The role of a premium brand
● Lamborghini ignores price competition between Hyundai and
Kia.
● Oracle ignores price competition between MySQL and
PostgreSQL.
 General Observations on Software Pricing
● Software is not price competitive at market level, no matter who
thinks it is.
● Software companies do discount on initial deals then make it
up with higher prices later, but this is hard with subscription
model.

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Impact on Red Hat Stock Price

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What happened here?
 What happened here?
● Wrong Economic Model of the Software Business
● Poor product launch -- self-inflicted problems
 Blogosphere figured out instantly that they are using CentOS
● Problems installing product; unreliable download site
 No credibility for support offering.
● No hiring of dedicated support.
● Sending database support reps to training class won’t cut it –
didn’t work for Novel in 2003 for SuSE launch, either.
 Focus on solving a vendor problem, not a customer problem.
● Raises indirect costs for switching.
● Raises “contingent costs” excessively for no benefit
● ustomers fantasize about vendor consolidation but won’t pay
for it.
 Solving the wrong vendor problem, at that...

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Solving the Wrong Problem
 Controlling the entire stack
● Worked well for Microsoft until recently.
● Worked for IBM in the 1960s-1980s
● IBM knows well the limits of this strategy (no applications)
 Getting people off proprietary hardware
● RAC very successful at this; driving significant portion of growth
in database licenses
● Every dollar not spent on Sun or AIX hardware maintenance
can be spent on Oracle maintenance

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What's the real problem
 Mature database business: is there a “Next Big Thing?”
● For 20 years, growth of database business is due to new
features allowing databases to enter bigger addressable
markets.
 Application technology is moribund
● When will double entry bookkeeping be replace by triple-entry?
● Incremental modules and riding platform shifts are the big
opportunities
 Company size makes it hard to sell individual products
● Makes it hard for a new acquisition to deliver “synergy”
(1+1=1.2)
 Integration of acquired products and technologies
● Risk of Project Fusion is enormous
● SAP can play conveniently against technology migration risk
and expense


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What's the real problem
 Weak partner channel versus Microsoft and IBM
● Competing increasingly with partners makes it harder to sign
up new ones.
● “Community” is an important type of partner relationship
 ?? … Cloning Red Hat solves how many of these?
 (These are problems common to many large software
companies, not just
 Oracle)

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Vertical vs Horizontal
 Horizontal
● Technology for your infrastructure
 Vertical
● Technology for a market solution

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Business Model

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Business Model

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Business Models
 Hybrid
 Childrens Edition
 Dual License
 Authoring
 Professional Services
● Support, Training, Consultancy
 Integration to support stack
 Enabler of core business

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Communities
 Organisation Structure
● Benevolent Dictator
● Democratic Consensus
 Organisation Body
● Commercially backed
● Commercially sponsored
● Volunteer(s)
 Social Contract
● License
● Standards and practices
● Interactions

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Assessing Risk
 Health of Project
● Mailing list, irc
● Code commits
● Number of Developers
● % of internal to external developers
● Commitment and health of commercial backers
● Availability
 Leaders or followers
 Professional services
 Hiring
 Continued education
● Books, events, blogs, articles
 Ecosystem, 3rd
parties and satellite communities

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Various
 Ecosystem
 Poisonous People
 Universities

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Motivations
 Fun
 Learning/Exploring
 Mastery
 Being part of Something
 Making a difference
 Scratching an itch

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About ME

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It All Started Here
Birth of CDSS
Dendral
Baobab
Mycin
Guidon
Neomycin
Teiresias
Puff
Emycin
WM
Sacon
Centaur
Wheeze
Gravida
Clot
Oncocin
1970s
1980s
Prolog

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Because Not Everyone
Is As Smart As He Is

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Business Rules Engines
OPS5
ART
Clips
Jess
Drools 2
JRules
1980s
2010s
Drools 3
1990s
2000s
Drools 4
Drools 5

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Declarative Technologies
 Production Rules
● Drools, Clips,
 Prolog
● Prova, SWI-Prolog, Kernel Prolog
 Semantic Reasoning
● JENA, OpenRDF
 Decision Software
● Open Rules
 Processes
● ODE, jBPM, Bonita, YAWL
 Event Processing
● EIP, Drools Fusion, Esper

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Standards
 RIF
 RuleML
 PRR
 JSR94

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