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Online Collective Intelligence


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This presentation for Tom Malone's Strategic Organizational Design class at MIT Sloan looks at some examples of the types of collective intelligence being implemented on the web.

Published in: Business, Technology

Online Collective Intelligence

  1. 1. 15.993 Report The Future of Collective Intelligence Garrett Dodge April 9, 2007
  3. 3. Market Trend: Collective Intelligence <ul><li>Intelligence of aggregate community vs. the individual </li></ul><ul><li>Information-sharing by individuals </li></ul><ul><li>Low cost creation of content by users </li></ul><ul><li>Increased access to user’s knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Incentives for sharing (social recognition or monetary reward) </li></ul><ul><li>Low-cost for large amounts of data </li></ul><ul><li>Self-policing within well-designed constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Information constantly updating </li></ul><ul><li>Constant customer feedback </li></ul><ul><li>Easily accessible consumer data </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative content creation </li></ul><ul><li>Law of averages creates greater accuracy </li></ul><ul><li>Necessary to filter contributions of all users (negative network effects) </li></ul><ul><li>Intellectual Property is a concern since open forum </li></ul><ul><li>Critical mass of users necessary to achieve results and draw other users </li></ul><ul><li>Gaming by users undermines trust </li></ul><ul><li>Potential for exploitation </li></ul>Drivers Constraints Features
  4. 4. Community: Competition Source: Company websites, Literature Search <ul><li>Concept: Users build teams of players from a given sport and compete in leagues based on player statistics </li></ul><ul><li>Features: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Competition promotes high engagement level on site </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Targets young, male demographic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data-driven management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Users pay for live updates </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Similar Site: Motley Fool CAPS, Trade Sports, PicksPal </li></ul>
  5. 5. Markets: News & Events Source: Company websites, Literature Search <ul><li>Concept: Users bid on the likelihood of events in sports, politics, and financial markets </li></ul><ul><li>Features: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Large number of registered users but small number of active users </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inkling offers market creation platform </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sample questions: Will Barack Obama be the Democratic nominee?; Will avian flu reach the US? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Similar Site: Inkling Markets, PicksPop (pop culture) </li></ul>
  6. 6. CI: Knowledge of the Masses <ul><li>Concept: Users compete by managing virtual portfolios </li></ul><ul><li>Features </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Top investors aggregate into index </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Premium members get stock alerts, weekly insight, daily stock info </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Only members in top 25% for six months can post in forums </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Option to create clubs with friends, family, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Similar sites: Iowa Electronic Exchange, Wikinancial </li></ul> Source: Company websites, Literature Search “ What better form of collective intelligence is there than a market.” - CISR Research Scientist
  7. 7. Community: Information Sharing <ul><li>Concept: Users post estimates of their net worth </li></ul><ul><li>Features </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Comparison of financial information by age, profession, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Blogs on personal finance decisions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Openness of users in sharing financial data </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Similar sites: Wesabe, Foonance, DimeWise, Bullpoo </li></ul> Source: Company websites, Literature Search
  8. 8. CI: Product Development <ul><li>Concept: Product development instance for a community-centered T-shirt store </li></ul><ul><li>Features: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Publishing of T-shirt designs online, which are put to a public vote </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Product development tool: only T-shirts with highest votes are printed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rewarding publishers of relevant content for the community </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Over 300,000 users </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. CI: Content <ul><li>Concepts: User contributed articles </li></ul><ul><li>Features </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Broad range of topics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple points of view, 5,000 participating writers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Greater visibility than blogs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial reward for quality content </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Similar Sites: We Are Smarter, Tax Almanac, A Million Penguins </li></ul> Source: Company websites, Literature Search
  10. 10. Implementing CI <ul><li>Can predictive markets work without information transparency? </li></ul><ul><li>How do we prevent users from gaming the system? </li></ul><ul><li>PicksPal has been beating the Vegas odds. Is this sustainable? Why or Why not? </li></ul><ul><li>What size community do we need to achieve results? PicksPal is currently successful with 100,000 members. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ PicksPal is a fascinating human experiment in predictive markets. The people making the picks (the elite users) don’t know they are doing it - they are simply making bets with their friends for bragging rights. If they did know that their picks were being used as part of an average to give advice to actual Vegas betters, they may choose games differently. Perhaps they would be more conservative, for example. If PicksPal’s win rate over the long run remains over 50% against the spread, they will begin to disrupt the betting markets.” TechCrunch </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Appendix Garrett Dodge April 9, 2007
  12. 12. Selected Quotations Customization Community Collective Intelligence “ What better form of collective intelligence is there than a market.” - CISR Research Scientist “ In my communities research I have found that there are several types of communities cropping up online, customer service, product innovation, market research, and communities for commerce.” - hstrout, We Are Smarter “ It is also a very natural and healthy dynamic for a community to have many more 'readers' than people participating in the conversation or in the creation of media. You will find that this is the case in most communities online.” - Yaronb, We Are Smarter “ Widgets that have office functionality—and their inclusion on Intranet dashboards—is probably where Google, Microsoft and the smaller players like Pageflakes and Netvibes are heading.” - Richard MacManus, Tales from the Web 2.0 Frontier
  13. 13. References <ul><li>“ Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research” by Joyce Berg, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson, Thomas Rietz; College of Business Administration University of Iowa, November 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Structure and Evolution of Online Social Networks” by Ravi Kumar, Jasmine Novak, Andrew Tomkins; Yahoo! Research, June 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>“ The Challenge of ‘Customerization’ in Financial Services” by Jerry Wind; Journal of Interactive Marketing, Winter 2001 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Friendster and Publicly Articulated Social Networking” by Danah Michele Boyd: CHI 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Searching Social Networks” by Bin Yu & Munindar Singh; AAMAS July 2003 </li></ul><ul><li>“ HT06, Tagging Paper, Taxonomy, Flickr, Academic Article, To Read” by Cameron Marlow & Danah Boyd August 2006 </li></ul>