Why This Is The Most Important Election


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Why This Is The Most Important Election

  1. 1.  Promises made as a result of passage of the two flagship pieces of legislation by the president relative to the economy :  President Bush’s icrease in spending of 4-5 trillion dollars was unpatriotic He would cut spending and reduce the deficit in Half by the end of his first term:  The 868 billion( 1 trillion with interest) stimulus package would result in peak unemployment of 8% and 6.7-6.9% by the end of first term  Create or save(?) three or 4 million jobs  The president said that he would not pass a healthcare bill that would add one DIME to the deficit. Obama Care would cost aprox 900 billion dollars and decrease the deifict by aprox 140 billion over 10 years Result:  The total debt was aprox 9-10 trillion dollars at the end of the Bush administration. An increase of aprox 4-5 trillion dollars over 8 years.
  2. 2.  This president has not cut spending …to the contrary he has spent the 5 trillion Bush spent in 8 years in 3.5 years bringing our spending to 24-25% of GDP. The average is 18-20%. The deficit has incresed from 479 billion in Bushes last year to over I trillion dollars every year of his presidency The unemployment rate that was supposed to peak at 8% has exceeded 8% every month and averaged about 9.4 % since 2009 . The result of the stimulus, instead of saving or creating 3-4 million jobs ..the economy shed more than 2 million jobs.
  3. 3.  Obama care based on new CBO estimates states that the plan will cost twice as much as the original 940 billion dollars to 1.76 trillion dollars and instaed of reducing the deficit ….increase the deficit aprox 340 billion. This is also a low estimate because once the law is fully implemented in 2014 there will be a mass exodus of companies from providing private heath care to there employees forcing increasing costs on the new health care system not included in the study.
  4. 4.  By Far Worst recovery of any recession since world war 2 By Far the worst Only two other recessions recovery of 19 post WW2 Recessions.. achieved -4% job losses at its trough. This recession achieved -6.5% and is just getting back to the worst previous achieved trough of - 4% 38 months later. Note every other recovery achieved positive job losses >0 on chart 1 This recession has lost a net
  5. 5.  While this recovery is positive it’s Jobless and a growth-less recovery  120k jobs created in March ..require 250-300K + jobs a month to achieve sufficient GDP growth to achieve positive net employment  GDP growth for the first Qtr was 2.2% …below concensus expectations of 2.5-3% Note the lower unemployment rate has a high correlation with the dropping participation rate which hasn’t been this low since the 70’s suggesting that the millions of individuals that have dropped out of the work force and are not counted are hidding the real unemployment rate of 15-19% The secound chart substantiates this and reinforces chart one on the previous page showing the highest total change in employment of all 19 previous recessions.