Patterns of Structural Transformation andAgricultural Productivity Growth in 109 Countries:       With a Special Focus on ...
What is Structural Transformation?•   Declining share of agriculture in GDP,•   Declining share of agriculture in employme...
Questions AddressedHow do patterns of structural transformation vary across countries?What role does agriculture play in...
Changing Location of Global Hunger                 No. of Undernourished by Region, 1990–92 and 2010–12            Caucasu...
Changing Location of Poverty Headcount Ratio at $1.25 a                   day (PPP) (% of Population)                     ...
Declining Share of Ag Value Added With Respect to                     Per Capita Income109 Developed and DevelopingCountri...
Declining Share of Employment109 Developed and Developing                                                      88 Developi...
Total Ag. Value Added W.R T Per Capita                Income        109 Developed and Developing                          ...
Per Worker Ag. Value Added         109 Developed and Developing                                    88 Developing Countries...
Difference between the Share of Value added in Agriculture                and Share of Employment in Agriculture          ...
Share of Agricultural Value Added in Total Minus Share of                              Agricultural Employment            ...
Intersectorial Duality       Value Added Per worker in Non-Ag and Ag: 4 Countries and All                                 ...
Intersectorial Terms of Trade Differences Among Regions                            Terms of Trade                         ...
Difference between the Share of Value added in Agriculture and the Share of Employment in Agriculture                     ...
WHAT EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCES INTHE SPEED OF TRANSFORMATION?
What Explains Differences in the Speed of Transformation?(NOT TO BE PRESENTED DUE TO TIME LIMIT!)
Land Productivity Differences                                                                                             ...
“Technology capital” Is strongly correlated with agricultural TFP growth                              Source: Fuglie/Evans...
Long-run Average Agricultural TFP growth (1971-2008)                   (% per year)                                       ...
Regional Productivity Growth in Parts of China _Some of the highest                 Wang et al on Top Ten Provinces       ...
DISTRIBUTION OF TFP GROWTH INDEXVALUES BY STATES IN INDIA: 1975-2005                          JAMMU & KASHMIR             ...
BSource: Chapter 7: Productivity and Structural Transformation in Brazilian Agriculture: Analysis of Agricultural Census D...
TFP Growth By Farm Size and Tenure TypesAsia:Inverse Relationship of Productivity and Farm SizeMeasured mainly by using ...
Public Agricultural R and D Spending                   Source: ASTI as reported in Beintema and Stads (2011)
Growth in Transport Infrastructure4500                     Operations of Road Transport                                   ...
Openness of Agricultural Cereal Trade     Food Imports as Percentage Share of Domestic Food                               ...
Efficient Water Use Is a Growing Challenge in Indian Agriculture—India uses                                               ...
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C1.1. Patterns of Structural Transformations and Agricultural Productivity Growth in 109 Countries: with Special Focus on Brazil, China, Indonesia and India

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C1.1. Patterns of Structural Transformations and Agricultural Productivity Growth in 109 Countries: with Special Focus on Brazil, China, Indonesia and India

  1. 1. Patterns of Structural Transformation andAgricultural Productivity Growth in 109 Countries: With a Special Focus on Brazil, China Indonesia and India Uma Lele, Based on a paper by Uma Lele, Manmohan Agarwal, Peter Timmer and Sambuddha Goswami Global Conference on Agricultural Research and Development, Punta del Este, October 29, 2012
  2. 2. What is Structural Transformation?• Declining share of agriculture in GDP,• Declining share of agriculture in employment,• Rural-urban migration,• Growth of the services and the manufacturing sectors and• A demographic transition with reduction in the population growth rates.• The final outcome when differences in labor productivity between the agricultural and non -agricultural sectors narrows considerably.
  3. 3. Questions AddressedHow do patterns of structural transformation vary across countries?What role does agriculture play in the structural transformation? How does agriculture’s role vary across and within BCII and in developingcountries at largeWhat do measures of agricultural productivity growth tells us about ?What policies, investments and institutions explain the differences?What Lessons?
  4. 4. Changing Location of Global Hunger No. of Undernourished by Region, 1990–92 and 2010–12 Caucasus and Developed Western Asia Central Asia 9 Developed Western Asia Region 16 and Northern Region 20 and Northern Caucasus and Africa 25 Oceania 1 Africa 13 Central Asia 6 Latin America Oceania 1 Latin America and Caribbean and 65 Caribbean 49 South-Eastern Asia 65 India 240 India 217 Eastern Asia (excluding South-Eastern China) 9 Asia 134 Eastern Asia (excludingSouthern Asia China) 7 China 158 (excluding Southern India) 87 Asia (excluding India) 87 China 254 Sub-Saharan Sub-Saharan Africa 234 Africa 170 1990-92 2010-12 Total=1000 million Data Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012 Total=868 million
  5. 5. Changing Location of Poverty Headcount Ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of Population) (1990-2009)70605040302010 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 BRAZIL CHINA INDIA INDONESIA
  6. 6. Declining Share of Ag Value Added With Respect to Per Capita Income109 Developed and DevelopingCountries 88 Developing Countries.8 .8 agriculturalvalueaddedshare.6 .6.4 .4.2 .2 0 0 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 lngdppcconstant2000us lngdppcconstant2000us
  7. 7. Declining Share of Employment109 Developed and Developing 88 Developing Countriescountries 1.8 agriculturalemploymentshare .8.6 .6.4 .4.2 .2 0 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 lngdppcconstant2000us lngdppcconstant2000us
  8. 8. Total Ag. Value Added W.R T Per Capita Income 109 Developed and Developing 88 Developing Countries Countries7 6 lnagrvainmilconstant2000us 5.56 5 4.55 44 3.5 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 lngdppcconstant2000us lngdppcconstant2000us
  9. 9. Per Worker Ag. Value Added 109 Developed and Developing 88 Developing Countries12 Countries 910 8 lnagrvapworker 8 7 6 6 4 5 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 lngdppcconstant2000us lngdppcconstant2000us
  10. 10. Difference between the Share of Value added in Agriculture and Share of Employment in Agriculture 109 Developed and Developing 88 Developing Countries.1 .1 Countries agrvaddedshareminusagremplshare 0 0-.1 -.1-.2 -.2-.3 -.3 4 6 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 lngdppcconstant2000us lngdppcconstant2000us
  11. 11. Share of Agricultural Value Added in Total Minus Share of Agricultural Employment 19 Countries in Asia 24 Countries in Latin America 0 -.1 agrvaddedshareminusagremplshare (Fitted)-.15 -.05 -.2 -.1-.25 -.15 -.3 -.2-.35 4 6 8 10 12 6 7 8 9 10 lngdppcconstant2000us lngdppcconstant2000us -.2 38 Countries in Sub- -.25 Saharan Africa -.3 -.35 -.4 -.45 4 5 6 7 8 9 lngdppcconstant2000us
  12. 12. Intersectorial Duality Value Added Per worker in Non-Ag and Ag: 4 Countries and All Regions Ratio: Value Added per Worker (Non- Ratio: Value Added per Worker (Non- 14 Agriculture/Agriculture) Agriculture/Agriculture) by Region18 (BIIC) 12 (1980-2009)16 (1980-2009) 101412 810 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 0 Source: WDI & Global Development Finance, World Bank and FAOSTAT 2011 East Asia & Pacific (developing only) Latin America & Caribbean (developing only) Middle East & North Africa (developing only) Source: WDI and Global Development Finance, World Bank South Asia and FAOSTAT 2011 Sub-Saharan Africa (developing only) Brazil China India Indonesia High income
  13. 13. Intersectorial Terms of Trade Differences Among Regions Terms of Trade Terms of Trade by Region (Deflator for Agriculture/Deflator for Non-Agriculture 2.5 (Deflator for Agriculture/Deflator for Non-Agriculture [Industry + Service] [Industry Service]) (in US$) (BIIC) (in US$) 3 (1980-2009) (1980-2009) 22.5 1.5 2 11.5 1 0.50.5 0 0 East Asia & Pacific (developing only) High income Latin America & Caribbean (developing only) Middle East & North Africa (developing only) Brazil China India Indonesia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa (developing only)
  14. 14. Difference between the Share of Value added in Agriculture and the Share of Employment in Agriculture in Brazil, China, India and Indonesia (1980-2009) -.08 Brazil -.1 -.1 -.12 -.14 -.15 -.16 -.18 -.2 8 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 lngdppcconstant2000us China India -.25 Indonesia -.3 5 6 7 8 9 lngdppcconstant2000us
  15. 15. WHAT EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCES INTHE SPEED OF TRANSFORMATION?
  16. 16. What Explains Differences in the Speed of Transformation?(NOT TO BE PRESENTED DUE TO TIME LIMIT!)
  17. 17. Land Productivity Differences Total Cereals Yield Growth Total Cereals Yield (1961-2010) (hg/ha)60000 (1961-2010) 450 40050000 350 Base Year 1961=10040000 30030000 250 20020000 15010000 100 50 0 0 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Brazil China India Indonesia Brazil China India Indonesia
  18. 18. “Technology capital” Is strongly correlated with agricultural TFP growth Source: Fuglie/EvansonBar height shows average TFP growth of countries with increasing technology capacities Source: Evenson & Fuglie (2010)
  19. 19. Long-run Average Agricultural TFP growth (1971-2008) (% per year) Former USSR Caribbean Developing Oceania Sub-Saharan AfricaAverage annual TFP growth > 2% Circled regions show persistently 1-2% low TFP growth < 1% Source: Keith Fuglie, Productivity Growth in the Global Agricultural Economy.
  20. 20. Regional Productivity Growth in Parts of China _Some of the highest Wang et al on Top Ten Provinces The top ten provinces in TFP growth for the 1985-2007 period (* Six of them are on the east coast) Jiangxi 8.17% Guangdong* 8.11% Hebei* 7.95% Fujian* 7.89% Shandong* 7.37% Hubei 7.34% Inner 7.26% Mongolia Zhejiang* 7.19% Sichuan 7.18% Liaoning* 6.83%
  21. 21. DISTRIBUTION OF TFP GROWTH INDEXVALUES BY STATES IN INDIA: 1975-2005 JAMMU & KASHMIR HIMACHAL PRADESH PUNJAB UTTARANCHAL HARYANA ARUNACHAL PRADESH DELHI SIKKIM RAJASTHAN UTTAR PRADESH ASSAMNAGALAND MEGHALAY BIHAR A MANIPUR TRIPURA JHARKHAND MIZORAM GUJARAT MADHYA PRADESH WEST BENGAL CHHATTISGARH DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI ORISSA MAHARASHTRA ANDHRA PRADESH GOA KARNATAKA Note: (1999-2009) PONDICHERRYPONDICHERRY KERALA TAMIL NADU (Red circle) Agricultural Growth Rates > 4% (Black circle) Agricultural Growth Rates 2% to 4%TFP Growth Score Class N.A Below 60 [Low] 60.00 - 70.00 [Moderate] (Major State Average=70.1) (while circle) Agricultural Growth Rates <2 % 70.01 - 90.00 (High) Above 90 [Very High] Source: Based on Total Factor Productivity and Contribution of Research Investment to Agricultural Growth in India: Ramesh Chand et al. NCAP 2011
  22. 22. BSource: Chapter 7: Productivity and Structural Transformation in Brazilian Agriculture: Analysis of Agricultural Census Data by José Garcia Gasques, Eliana Teles astos, Constanza Valdes and Miriam Rumenos Piedade Bacchi.
  23. 23. TFP Growth By Farm Size and Tenure TypesAsia:Inverse Relationship of Productivity and Farm SizeMeasured mainly by using land productivity in Asia“Poor but Efficient” hypothesis of Theodore Schultz for farmers lackingaccess to inputs, extension and marketsLatin America:U Shaped Relationship Between Farm Size and ProductivityProductivity by Tenure Type—Corporate, OwnerOperated, Tenant, Contract Farms,New Production TechnologiesVertical Integration and importance of value chains,
  24. 24. Public Agricultural R and D Spending Source: ASTI as reported in Beintema and Stads (2011)
  25. 25. Growth in Transport Infrastructure4500 Operations of Road Transport Operations of Railway Transport4000 (India and China) (India and China) (Thousand km) (Thousand km) 1003500 903000 80 702500 602000 50 401500 301000 20 10500 0 0 1980-81 2010-11 1980-81 2010 Note: 2010-11 data for India is provisional Length of Highways (National + State) (Thousand km)--India* (Latest National Electrified Railways (Thousand km)---India available data is 2007-08) Length of Railways in Operation (Thousand km)---India Length of Highways + Expressways (Thousand km)--China National Electrified Railways (Thousand km)--China Length of Railways in Operation (Thousand km)---China
  26. 26. Openness of Agricultural Cereal Trade Food Imports as Percentage Share of Domestic Food Tariff Rate (Most Favoured Nation), Simple Mean Supply 35 Primary Products (Percentage) (BIIC) (1999-2009) (1961-2007) 3014 251210 208 156 1042 50 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1999 2005 2009 Source: FAOSTAT 2011 Source: WDI and Global Development Finance, World Bank Brazil China India Indonesia Brazil China India Indonesia
  27. 27. Efficient Water Use Is a Growing Challenge in Indian Agriculture—India uses far more units of water per unit of crop than ChinaGroundwater Trends of public expenditure in major and medium irrigation and net irrigated area under different sources in India 60 42 50 36(billion US$, in 2000 prices) Groundwater 30 Net irrigated area 40 (million ha) Expenditure 24 30 Canal 18 20 Irrigated Area 12 Expenditure US$ 10 Tank 6 Irrigated Area 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Expenditure Tanks Canals Groundwater Source: Amerasinghe et al
  28. 28. Thank You

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