F1. Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource-contrained world


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F1. Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource-contrained world

  1. 1. Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource-constrained world Erik Mathijs
  2. 2. INEVITABLE…?“By 2050 the world’s population will reach 9.2 billion (…). Nearly all ofthis population increase will occur in developing countries. (…) about 70percent of the world’s population will be urban (…). Income levels will bemany multiples of what they are now. In order to feed this larger, moreurban and richer population, food production (net of food used forbiofuels) must increase by 70 percent.” (FAO) …UNDERLYING WORLDVIEW?
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION• Purpose: guide European agricultural research with respect to future orientations• Final aim: building blocks to prepare transition towards a sustainable ag and food system• Client: EU Standing Committee on Agricultural Research & European Commission (DG RTD, DG Agri)• Timing: June 2010 – February 2011• Execution: 8 external experts, supported by SCAR working group and stakeholder consultation/validation through workshop
  4. 4. METHOD• Meta-study: scan foresight activities and academic papers (2009 / 2010)• Framework: transition theory• Emphasis: resource scarcity• Discourse analysis: make implicit underlying worldview
  5. 5. RESULTS1. Sense of urgency due to resource scarcities accelerates (due to interactions)2. Way we look at problems and solutions differs fundamentally between productivity-oriented (“more with less”) and sufficiency-oriented thinking (“less is more”)3. Not productivity or sufficiency, but productivity and sufficiency – all approaches are necessary, no silver bullet Source: Rockstrom et al.
  6. 6. TRANSITION PATHWAYS Narratives of food production and consumption• Consumer driven• Technology driven (biotech, GMO, nano, ICT, agro- Biophysical scarcities ecologyg) Socio-economic Transition pathways• Organizational innovation and political context driven (CSR, social innovation, global governance) Long-term vision - Research needs Research policy implications
  7. 7. IMPACT AND CALL TO ACTION• Take into account often implicit underlying values and worldviews and stimulate diversity• Consider multiple pathways that may contradict or reinforce each other• Help stakeholders engage into frame-breaking thinking, not only in future scenarios, but also with respect to current system CSA farm in Leuven, Belgium Cattle Feedlot. NDSU Ag Communication February 11, 2011