North Atlantic Right Whale Study
Researched and Presented by:
George E. Campsen
The Citadel
Agenda
• Purpose/Background
• Database and Area of Interest
• South Carolina plots and trend analysis
• Northeast plots an...
Purpose
• Find a less imposing yet equally effective
alternative to federal regulation 50 CFR Part
224.105
– In South Caro...
Determining a Database and an Area
of Interest
• Annual reports listed on NOAA.gov to be used
as database- Provided by Sea...
2004- 2005 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N
12 Whales
Sighted
9 Whales
Sighted
8 Whales
Sighte...
2005- 2006 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N
12 Whales
Sighted
9 Whales
Sighted
8 Whales
Sighte...
2006- 2007 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N
12 Whales
Sighted
9 Whales
Sighted
8 Whales
Sighte...
2007- 2008 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N
12 Whales
Sighted
9 Whales
Sighted
8 Whales
Sighte...
2008- 2009 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N
12 Whales
Sighted
9 Whales
Sighted
8 Whales
Sighte...
2009- 2010 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N
12 Whales
Sighted
9 Whales
Sighted
8 Whales
Sighte...
2010- 2011 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N
12 Whales
Sighted
9 Whales
Sighted
8 Whales
Sighte...
2011- 2012 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N
12 Whales
Sighted
9 Whales
Sighted
8 Whales
Sighte...
2004-2012 Long Term Average of Right Whale Sightings between the ranges
of 32°20’N and 33°N
Long Term Numbers
Total Whales...
Findings about South Carolina Activity
• South Carolina Right Whale density
– 25.4 whales per year
• South Carolina migrat...
Moving On
• Northeast- Ports of the Gulf of Maine
– Boston
– Portland
– Portsmouth
– Searsport
– Belfast
– Bar Harbor
– Ea...
2006 Northeast Sightings
All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch,
Acoustic, Commercial
NOTE: Th...
Jan 1-
May 15
Mar 1-
Apr 30
Apr 1-Jul
31
2007 Northeast Sightings
All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, W...
Jan 1-
May 15
Mar 1-
Apr 30
Apr 1-Jul
31
2008 Northeast Sightings
All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, W...
Jan 1-
May 15
Mar 1-
Apr 30
Apr 1-Jul
31
2009 Northeast Sightings
All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, W...
Jan 1-
May 15
Mar 1-
Apr 30
Apr 1-Jul
31
2010 Northeast Sightings
All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, W...
Jan 1-
May 15
Mar 1-
Apr 30
Apr 1-Jul
31
2011 Northeast Sightings
All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, W...
2006-2011 Long Term Average of Right Whale Sightings North of of 40°N
Long Term Numbers
Total Whales Sighted : 12,760
Whal...
AIS Shipping Movements with Whale
Sightings Overlay
• AIS ship tracking images and whale sightings
for the years 2009 and ...
-71.00 -70.50 -70.00 -69.50 -69.00 -68.50 -68.00 -67.50 -67.00
2009 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2009 Whale sightings overlay...
-71.00 -70.50 -70.00 -69.50 -69.00 -68.50 -68.00 -67.50 -67.00Note the large amount of unregulated ship activity above the...
2009 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2009 Whale sightings overlay
and speed zone boundaries
Note the large amount of regulated s...
2010 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2010 Whale sightings overlay
and speed zone boundaries
Note the large amount of regulated s...
What about when there are no
regulations in effect?
• Whale sightings when no regulations are in
effect
• Remember- each s...
2009 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2006-2011 Whale sightings
when speed regulations are not in effect
Note the large amount of...
Note the large amount of ship activity in this area with no whale activity. In this region
an average of 0 whales are seen...
Leading causes of Death:
Ship Strikes vs. Entanglement
• Lethal Ship Strike- When a vessel collides with
a whale causing d...
Ship Strikes before and after
enactment of the speed regulation
• Prior to regulation: 19 strikes in 38 years
– One every ...
Death by Entanglement vs. Death by Ship Strike
2009-2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 TOTAL
Whales Killed b...
Comparative Risk Hypothesis
• While ship strike regulations seem to be
ineffective, entanglements pose a much greater
risk...
Population Growth Trends
Report to the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, November 2012.
Contact Heather Pettis (hpett...
Right Whale Population Analysis
• 1990 to 2008- no ship speed regulations
– Population jump of roughly 150 individuals
• S...
Preliminary Significant Figures
Port of Charleston
• Avg. number of whales spotted
annually: 25.4
• Avg. number of whales ...
Food for Thought
• If NOAA is fine with having well over 800
unprotected whales per year in the Northeast,
then why do we ...
Alternate Regulations:
Proposed are two options for effective strategies for South
Carolina waters
Option 1
• Implement ma...
Conclusion
• Thank you for your time, and I hope that you
will consider these facts as we collaborate on
right whale prote...
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George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

  1. 1. North Atlantic Right Whale Study Researched and Presented by: George E. Campsen The Citadel
  2. 2. Agenda • Purpose/Background • Database and Area of Interest • South Carolina plots and trend analysis • Northeast plots and trend analysis • Ship activity • Ship strike vs. entanglements • Population growth
  3. 3. Purpose • Find a less imposing yet equally effective alternative to federal regulation 50 CFR Part 224.105 – In South Carolina- • November 1 – April 30 • Ten knots • Twenty miles • Two Proposals: – Mandatory DMA – Reduction in time frame
  4. 4. Determining a Database and an Area of Interest • Annual reports listed on NOAA.gov to be used as database- Provided by Sea to Shore Alliance – http://sero.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/mm/rightwhales/SoutheastRegionsContractsAerialSurveyReports.htm • Flight Team Description – Federally funded – Team Description – Active Dates • Area of Interest • Charleston Harbor and Shipping Channel, South • 32° 20’N to 33°N.
  5. 5. 2004- 2005 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N 12 Whales Sighted 9 Whales Sighted 8 Whales Sighted 6 Whales Sighted 4 Whales Sighted 3 Whales Sighted 2 Whales Sighted 1 Whale Sighted 2004-2005 Data Total Whales Sighted: 14 Percentage within Speed Zone: 100% Percentage outside of Speed Zone: 0%
  6. 6. 2005- 2006 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N 12 Whales Sighted 9 Whales Sighted 8 Whales Sighted 6 Whales Sighted 4 Whales Sighted 3 Whales Sighted 2 Whales Sighted 1 Whale Sighted 2005-2006 Data Total Whales Sighted: 34 Percentage within Speed Zone: 100% Percentage outside of Speed Zone: 0%
  7. 7. 2006- 2007 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N 12 Whales Sighted 9 Whales Sighted 8 Whales Sighted 6 Whales Sighted 4 Whales Sighted 3 Whales Sighted 2 Whales Sighted 1 Whale Sighted 2006-2007 Data Total Whales Sighted: 7 Percentage within Speed Zone: 100% Percentage outside of Speed Zone: 0%
  8. 8. 2007- 2008 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N 12 Whales Sighted 9 Whales Sighted 8 Whales Sighted 6 Whales Sighted 4 Whales Sighted 3 Whales Sighted 2 Whales Sighted 1 Whale Sighted 2007-2008 Data Total Whales Sighted: 27 Percentage within Speed Zone: 67% Percentage outside of Speed Zone: 33%
  9. 9. 2008- 2009 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N 12 Whales Sighted 9 Whales Sighted 8 Whales Sighted 6 Whales Sighted 4 Whales Sighted 3 Whales Sighted 2 Whales Sighted 1 Whale Sighted 2008-2009 Data Total Whales Sighted: 32 Percentage within Speed Zone: 47% Percentage outside of Speed Zone: 53%
  10. 10. 2009- 2010 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N 12 Whales Sighted 9 Whales Sighted 8 Whales Sighted 6 Whales Sighted 4 Whales Sighted 3 Whales Sighted 2 Whales Sighted 1 Whale Sighted 2009-2010 Data Total Whales Sighted: 40 Percentage within Speed Zone: 62% Percentage outside of Speed Zone: 38%
  11. 11. 2010- 2011 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N 12 Whales Sighted 9 Whales Sighted 8 Whales Sighted 6 Whales Sighted 4 Whales Sighted 3 Whales Sighted 2 Whales Sighted 1 Whale Sighted 2010-2011 Data Total Whales Sighted: 17 Percentage within Speed Zone: 100% Percentage outside of Speed Zone: 0%
  12. 12. 2011- 2012 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N 12 Whales Sighted 9 Whales Sighted 8 Whales Sighted 6 Whales Sighted 4 Whales Sighted 3 Whales Sighted 2 Whales Sighted 1 Whale Sighted 2011-2012 Data Total Whales Sighted: 32 Percentage within Speed Zone: 37% Percentage outside of Speed Zone: 63%
  13. 13. 2004-2012 Long Term Average of Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N Long Term Numbers Total Whales Sighted : 203 Number within Speed Zone: 142 Number outside of Speed Zone: 61 70% 30% 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 November December January February March April Trackline Miles Flown/1000 Whales Seen 32° 20' to 33° Whales Seen 32° 20' to 33°/ 1000 Trackline Miles Month NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR Whales 32°20’N and 33°N/100 0 miles .9 2.1 1.9 5.3 5.0 0 Monthly breakdown of whales seen 32°20’N to 33°N
  14. 14. Findings about South Carolina Activity • South Carolina Right Whale density – 25.4 whales per year • South Carolina migratory route – Tail end • Very low numbers in November and April
  15. 15. Moving On • Northeast- Ports of the Gulf of Maine – Boston – Portland – Portsmouth – Searsport – Belfast – Bar Harbor – Eastport
  16. 16. 2006 Northeast Sightings All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch, Acoustic, Commercial NOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65 Jan 1- May 15 Mar 1- Apr 30 Apr 1-Jul 31
  17. 17. Jan 1- May 15 Mar 1- Apr 30 Apr 1-Jul 31 2007 Northeast Sightings All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch, Acoustic, Commercial NOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65
  18. 18. Jan 1- May 15 Mar 1- Apr 30 Apr 1-Jul 31 2008 Northeast Sightings All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch, Acoustic, Commercial NOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65
  19. 19. Jan 1- May 15 Mar 1- Apr 30 Apr 1-Jul 31 2009 Northeast Sightings All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch, Acoustic, Commercial NOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65
  20. 20. Jan 1- May 15 Mar 1- Apr 30 Apr 1-Jul 31 2010 Northeast Sightings All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch, Acoustic, Commercial NOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65
  21. 21. Jan 1- May 15 Mar 1- Apr 30 Apr 1-Jul 31 2011 Northeast Sightings All Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch, Acoustic, Commercial NOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65
  22. 22. 2006-2011 Long Term Average of Right Whale Sightings North of of 40°N Long Term Numbers Total Whales Sighted : 12,760 Whales within Speed Zone: 7,842 Whales outside of Speed Zone: 4,918 With the current speed zones 38.5% of whales are sighted outside of the regulated area and are subjected to heavy ship traffic 61.5% 38.5% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Total Whales Whales inside of Regulated Zone Whales Outside of Regulated Zone
  23. 23. AIS Shipping Movements with Whale Sightings Overlay • AIS ship tracking images and whale sightings for the years 2009 and 2010. • Approximately 1315.5 ships avoid the regulated areas annually: 20-25 knots – U.S. Dept. of Homeland security document: • CF1401-Record of Vessel In Foreign Trade-Clearances
  24. 24. -71.00 -70.50 -70.00 -69.50 -69.00 -68.50 -68.00 -67.50 -67.00 2009 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2009 Whale sightings overlay and speed zone boundaries Note the large amount of unregulated ship activity above the speed zones. In this region approximately 38.5% of all ships in this region avoid regulated areas so as to steam at full cruising speed. In this area an average of 819.7 whales are seen outside of the regulated areas annually.
  25. 25. -71.00 -70.50 -70.00 -69.50 -69.00 -68.50 -68.00 -67.50 -67.00Note the large amount of unregulated ship activity above the speed zones. In this region approximately 38.5% of all ships in this region avoid regulated areas so as to steam at full cruising speed. In this area an average of 819.7 whales are seen outside of the regulated areas annually. 2010 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2010 Whale sightings overlay and speed zone boundaries
  26. 26. 2009 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2009 Whale sightings overlay and speed zone boundaries Note the large amount of regulated ship activity in this area with very little whale activity. In this region 100% of ships leaving Charleston Harbor are slowed to 10 knots until they reach the 20 mile line. In the 40 nautical mile stretch around Charleston an average of 7.6 whales are seen outside of the regulated areas annually.
  27. 27. 2010 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2010 Whale sightings overlay and speed zone boundaries Note the large amount of regulated ship activity in this area with very little whale activity. In this region 100% of ships leaving Charleston Harbor are slowed to 10 knots until they reach the 20 mile line. In the 40 nautical mile stretch around Charleston an average of 7.6 whales are seen outside of the regulated areas annually.
  28. 28. What about when there are no regulations in effect? • Whale sightings when no regulations are in effect • Remember- each sighting in the Northeast represents 4.65 whales
  29. 29. 2009 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2006-2011 Whale sightings when speed regulations are not in effect Note the large amount of whale and ship activity in this area when there are no speed regulations in effect. In this area an average of 744 whales are seen annually when no regulations are in effect.
  30. 30. Note the large amount of ship activity in this area with no whale activity. In this region an average of 0 whales are seen annually when there are no speed zones in effect. 2010 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2004-2012 Whale sightings when speed regulations are not in effect
  31. 31. Leading causes of Death: Ship Strikes vs. Entanglement • Lethal Ship Strike- When a vessel collides with a whale causing death • Lethal entanglement- When a whale becomes entrapped in a line that ultimately results in death
  32. 32. Ship Strikes before and after enactment of the speed regulation • Prior to regulation: 19 strikes in 38 years – One every other year • National Geographic October 2008 Issue • After regulation: 2 Strikes in 4 years – One every other year • NARWC Report Cards 2009-2012 • How effective is the regulation?
  33. 33. Death by Entanglement vs. Death by Ship Strike 2009-2012 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 TOTAL Whales Killed by Entanglement Whales Killed by Ship Strikes
  34. 34. Comparative Risk Hypothesis • While ship strike regulations seem to be ineffective, entanglements pose a much greater risk. • Strategies to prevent, identify, and respond to entanglements may be far more effective in advancing the species. • Response capabilities are loosely organized in South Carolina. Assets have been volunteered, though there has been little communication with these assets, and the SEIT currently has no residents of South Carolina seated.
  35. 35. Population Growth Trends Report to the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, November 2012. Contact Heather Pettis (hpettis@neaq.org) for further information. Figure 2. Assessments of the North Atlantic right whale population based on three available assessment methods. Reproduction: 2012 The North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium estimates the current North Atlantic Right Whale population at 509 individuals. They also believe that the population has been growing steadily for over 20 years.
  36. 36. Right Whale Population Analysis • 1990 to 2008- no ship speed regulations – Population jump of roughly 150 individuals • Ship strike rate is the same before and after the enactment of the regulation – How effective is the regulation?
  37. 37. Preliminary Significant Figures Port of Charleston • Avg. number of whales spotted annually: 25.4 • Avg. number of whales seen outside of regulated zone annually: 7.6 • Avg. number of whales seen during non-regulated time frame: 0 annually • Ships avoiding speed zone when active: 0 annually • Historical Ship Strikes in South Carolina: 0* Gulf of Maine Ports • Avg. number of whales spotted annually: 2,126 • Avg. number of whales seen outside of regulated zone annually: 819 • Avg. number of whales seen during non-regulated time frame: 744 annually • Ships avoiding speed zone when active: 1315.5 annually • Historical Ship Strikes near the Gulf of Maine: 13* *Statistics taken from October 2008 National Geographic and the annual NARWC report card
  38. 38. Food for Thought • If NOAA is fine with having well over 800 unprotected whales per year in the Northeast, then why do we regulate so few whales so rigorously off South Carolina? • Over 38 % of Northeast Whales are not protected by speed regulations.
  39. 39. Alternate Regulations: Proposed are two options for effective strategies for South Carolina waters Option 1 • Implement mandatory Dynamic Management Areas (DMA’s) – Flights occur off of South Carolina every day, weather permitting, from November 15th to April 15th. A better alternative to the current rule would be mandatory, two-week DMA for a ten to twenty mile radius around every sighting off of South Carolina. This would protect the whales when they are here, but also allow ships to travel efficiently when the whales are not here. Option 2 • Reduce the Regulation Period from six to four months – My research clearly indicates that whale numbers off the coast of South Carolina are negligible during the months of November and April. I propose that NOAA reduces the “speed- zone” time to exclude the months of November and April. Currently we are slowing down ships for a negligible amount of whales.
  40. 40. Conclusion • Thank you for your time, and I hope that you will consider these facts as we collaborate on right whale protective strategies. Questions? Comments?

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