Although we didn’t fully agree with the LSE there’s a gap between costs and likely resources – even with this as a pre recession analysis!
Custard slice is IB’s – context is unique to us so no wider claims but for us IBs will up costs by 4% in older adults and reduce in younger adults by 30%
Here’s what funding looks like today – three pots
As the public pots stay still or shrink over the future we need to have a system that supports and draws in the cash and in kind contributions of people themselves. In some ways the recession and the public sector crisis of funding makes the need for a settlement of the care system al the greater as it offers the only source of growth to at least inject something alongside the demographic demand.
Personalisation Update - Birmingham's Story
Personalisation update Birmingham’s Story Steve WiseService Director (Business Change) September 2012
Birmingham’s Costs The options for the Council: Maintain current budget? Fund the demographic projections? Transformation? ion ject pro LSE on pro jecti BCC on n pr ojecti for matio Trans tion t projec BudgeCosts 10 years
Benefits model£340k Cost avoidance Cost£300k reduction£250k Year 6 Year 10
What has changed?• Was more service for more people with the same money (transformation)• Now more for more with less (austerity)• Transformation - £229m of savings over 10 years to fund demographic growth.• Austerity – now £419m of savings over 10 years – but still not enough.
Funding Picture Public funded Personal social care contribution via localNHS government
Transformed Funding Personal care and contributions
Benefit dependencies Gate keeping Informed Prediction choice and prevention USERS Gate keeping Gate keeping IB s Mark shap et ing More funds diverted to enablement Fewer users require an IB Income maximisation Enablement Gate keeping
Where do you fit in?• In the prevent space around £9m.• There is some penetration into care packages (£2m out of a total of £180m).• From my perspective the voluntary sector could exist across all elements of the personalisation journey.• Younger adult care needs a change of approach!
Conclusions• We were already on a massive change journey with transformation.• Austerity has tested the system to the limit!• Integration with Health essential?• If the voluntary sector is not to be squeezed, look at personalised services – Birmingham circa £180m!