Answers to few general questions everyone asks ahead of this general elections 2014
1. The various groups across north eastern states will always raise their demands for a
separate statehood for the region they have a hold on, be it for their political purposes or
the so called economic and better administration purpose.
Generally the statehood demands can be divided into two categories:
i) The demands which are basically limited to times of election and the voice of
demands die out after the elections. An example of this can be cited in the name of
Uttar Pradesh which is wished by a few to divide it into four smaller states.
ii) The demands which have remained perennial throughout decades and depend upon
the negligence done to a particular community of a certain area. Examples include
Bodoland(Bodo Community ), Gorkhaland(Gorkha Community) , etc.
Once the general elections get over, the government will have to face demands from the
second category mentioned. The demands of statehoods saw a silver lining from the
telangana decision. They might try to bring up this issue once a new government is formed.
The new government shall try to let them know that Telangana was a special issue and it
was a state large enough to divided with all possibilities of independent existence.
The government will tackle their demands diplomatically where they will try their best to
solve the disputes between groups, plan special initiatives, packages for the economically
Government will be taking cue of their demand son case to case basis and where they do
see any further scope of division, they might go ahead with it.
There is also a chance of demands going violent, which needs to addressed carefully and
might need the use of paramilitary forces just to calm down the environment.
Further, the citizens of those region will be made aware about the benefits it would garner
from sticking to their present state and will try to clear the false impression made by
separatist leaders of those regions.
2. The history has not been bereft of these kinds of outcome since we have been seeing
several coalition governments since 1977, many of which have collapsed within few days,
months, years and many who have survived their tenure of 5 years.
Outcome of this election, just as the outcome of some other previous elections will not give
the mandate to a single party and the government will be a coalition one, as rightly said
Coalition Governments are and will be the reality of present times in India.
The regional parties will have to find a national party with which they can align so that their
common policies and ideology can be worked out with. The national party getting a larger
number of seats will be in a better position to garner the support from other national and
regional parties and they all can sit over and decide what their common interests lie in.
Further, they need to device a Common Minimum Programme based on their promises and
aspirations made in their individual election manifestos and will have to include some points
and will have to give up some. If there is a split of agreement on a particular group, a inter
party group of the coalition members will decide on that particular matter. Government too
will have to make decisions subjects to coalition compulsions.
3. The so called Jan Lokpal Bill was brought in the Delhi Legislative Assembly by the then AAP
Government but it couldn’t see the light of the day. The blame is shared by all political
parties including AAP which indeed showed much haste and went against the book to bring
this law in the Legislative Assembly.
After the state of Delhi sees a new non-AAP government we can’t see it passing the AAP’s
(or in fact Team Anna’s /IAC) version of Lokpal Bill. No one can term a particular Lokpal Bill
as full proof. Each version of the Lokpal Bill will have its own pros and cons. One can’t term
just their version to be the full proof one.
Even Team Anna which has now strained its relations with Arvind Kejriwal and his party AAP,
did welcome the Parliament passing “The Lokpal and Lokayuktas Act, 2013” and it saw
parties coming in favour of this bill across the party lines.
If the AAP is re-elected in the next Legislative Assembly elections, it will have the mandate
to pass its own version of Lokpal Bill i.e. Jan Lokpal Bill.
If the AAP is in power as a coalition it will have to make some changes into their Bill and
make it acceptable to at least the coalition partners and cannot keep their own government
in hostage ever now and then.
4. Arvind Kejriwal’s sudden resignation on the issue of Jan Lokpal may have earned him a great
deal of sympathy but at the same time he has also lost the faith he had inscripted in many
people. Many people may make a martyr out of him by this act of his but there are people
who now consider him to be politically immature or a man who just wasted an opportunity
to serve people and implement his plans in a longer run.
Many people are quite critical of his hastiness shown during various walks of political life
and some even term him to be a hypocrite.
Despite this, there are people who adore him for his simplicity and honesty.
Many others view AAP as an option other than regular parties.
Being a popular leader across India, he definitely had a good chance to win an election for
the Lok Sabha.
This chance of his has been undermined and may have to face competition in manifolds, as
news pours in that he is thinking of contesting elections from Varanasi where BJP has fielded
their prime ministerial candidate for that very seat.
Though both Arvind Kejriwal and Narendra Modi are leaders of equal stature, one has to see
that Varanasi still remains one of the favorite hunting grounds of the BJP.
If Kejriwal does plan to contest from a different seat, things may turn out different with
maximum chance in case he runs for the election from any seat in Delhi or Haryana.
5. Statistics say that 160 seats of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats will have a direct impact
whatsoever through the various platforms of social media.
It’s obvious we see a battle between political parties on ground as well as these social media
platforms which they know that it can’t be missed. It is indeed a weapon of mass
communication providing an alternative to conventional methods of campaigning and is
definitely much cheaper. In fact it’s cheaper to hold a “Google Hangout” than to do a rally.
It also caters as a tool to cater the middle class urban people who generally do not prefer
going to rallies and are not exposed to several parts of campaigning.
Despite all this, the effect of social media will not be that wide in the rural India.
There is almost a very good majority who are not prone to the Internet in the rural India.
Thus, these online social media campaigns won’t be helping in this case. They will have to
stick to conventional campaigning and this shall have to be done in a greater part of India
which still remains rural.
Seeing the brighter side, Internet as well as social networking sites have proven quite fruitful
in creating awareness among people be it about the election process or about the
candidates contesting, etc by media houses, election commission, NGOs and several others
including the political parties themselves.
This in fact has contributed towards making citizens well informed and well equipped to
handle the elections.
This also might help people to rise above the factors like community voting and encourage
them to vote for the best candidate to equip the region with amenities, development, and
other necessary critical problems.
They can decide which party is in a better position to address to the needs of the country
and its people.
6. The scope of a third front coming into power stands no chance in current situations.
The possibility of it getting the power at New Delhi stands at not more than 1%, being too
much optimistic for them.
i) Many parties are not acceptable to each other in a single alliance but they include
party without whom the third front would be impossible.
Examples include SP & BSP, DMK & AIDMK, CPM & TMC, RJD & JDU, etc.
They are still incompatible to each other and won’t accept each other and will go
against each other in states while they are ought to stay together at the centre.
ii) History has been rude to them. A good majority of times a government lead by
either Congress or BJP (including janata regime) has taken the kingship at the
The one time third front government had its own days at the centre not lasting even
few months there.
iii) People in Lok Sabha elections generally tend to vote in favour of National Parties
where as they are more inclined to vote regional parties in assembly elections.
If somehow, a third front manages to come in power at the centre, the situation may turn
out like this:
i) They will have to device a common minimum program keeping aside their
differences and focusing on common points which they might do but the way ahead
will be hard to implement on those programs.
ii) The government may not be able to decide and take critical decisions on economy
due to different economic policies of different parties in the coalition.
Same applies to defense, external affairs, etc.
iii) The government may just not agree over the revenue distribution and incentives
and packages as regional parties will be vouching to get the deals for just their
There will be many sectors where they will keep their regional ambitions always
above than national ambitions.
iv) They might not survive a long term and there will always be a scope of a party or
group of parties parting away from the coalition and thus bringing the government
Gaurav Raj Anand, Aditya Prakash
Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Patna Campus
Mob: 8002873075, 8292605817
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