Your SlideShare is downloading.
×

- 1. ASSESSING ENTERPRISE PROJECT RISK Probability of Program Success P(s)
- 2. Assessing Schedule Risk is One Step 2 Probability of Success P(s) Assesses a project’s performance using 4 simple metrics. It is the Planning metric that can be assessed using two methods deployed by Lewis & Fowler Monte Carlo Simulation Schedule Health
- 3. 3 The Data Elements of a Project are Random Variables Cost, Schedule, Technical Performance and Risk Each is drawn from a probability distribution. The shape of this distribution has direct impact on the confidence of the outcome. Modeling this probability distributions and their outcomes is what a Monte Carlo tool does.
- 4. The Schedule Assessment Process Topology Task with no successors Tasks with no predecessors Constraints Must Finish On Finish No Later Than Must Start On Start No Later Than Margin analysis Task duration probability distributions Confidence of completing on or before a planned date Schedule Health Schedule Risk
- 5. Every Manager Should Know… 5 When will this project finish? Is the project’s schedule realistic and achievable? What will it cost when we are done? How is the project performing against its plan? What deliverables are slipping? How are we going to get the deliverables back on schedule? What does past performance say about the future performance? What is the impact on the schedule of any change requests? Is there enough schedule slack and reserve to cover the risk? Is there enough management reserve to cover any overrun? Where is the risk in the schedule? How can we get the work done sooner to reduce risk? How can we recover from any foreseen delays? How can we work around a problem?
- 6. EXAMPLE SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS
- 7. 7 Monte Carlo Risk analysis starts with a credible schedule and defines the probabilistic behavior of each activities and how it drives the deliverables The Risk+ tool sets the upper and lower bounds of the possible durations
- 8. 8 Date: 2/25/2009 3:34:12 PM Samples: 300 Unique ID: 30 Name: Final Testing Completion Std Deviation: 5.51d 95% Confidence Interval: 0.62d Each bar represents 2d Completion Date Frequency CumulativeProbability Tue 2/11/03Mon 1/20/03 Mon 3/3/03 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 Completion Probability Table Prob ProbDate Date 0.05 Wed 1/29/03 0.10 Fri 1/31/03 0.15 Tue 2/4/03 0.20 Wed 2/5/03 0.25 Wed 2/5/03 0.30 Thu 2/6/03 0.35 Fri 2/7/03 0.40 Mon 2/10/03 0.45 Mon 2/10/03 0.50 Tue 2/11/03 0.55 Wed 2/12/03 0.60 Thu 2/13/03 0.65 Fri 2/14/03 0.70 Fri 2/14/03 0.75 Mon 2/17/03 0.80 Tue 2/18/03 0.85 Wed 2/19/03 0.90 Thu 2/20/03 0.95 Tue 2/25/03 1.00 Mon 3/3/03 The output of Risk+ is a Probability Distribution Function and a Cumulative Distribution of all the possible dates that “watched” activity could take. This shows the Confidence in the target date – 2/10/3 It shows 40% chance of completely on or before 2/10/03
- 9. Beneficial Outcomes A confidence metric that the project will complete on or before the planned date Measures of the integrity of the activity network Overly constrained plan Activities with no dependencies Visibility into the Probability of Success from a schedule point of view