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2012
Best year in history
Best year in history
   Less Hunger
   Less Disease
 More Prosperity
How does the media
      make money?
      make money?
Sells you to advertisers
  Fear gets attention
       No context
Julian Simon
                (1932-1998)

  The Ultimate Resource
The ultimate resource is people–especially skilled, spirited,
and hopeful young people endowed with liberty–who will
exert their wills and imaginations for their own benefit, and
so inevitably they will benefit the rest of us as well.” — The
State of Humanity (1995)

This is my long-run forecast in brief: the material
conditions of life will continue to get better for most
people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely.
Within a century or two, all nations and most of humanity
will be at or above today’s Western living standards.
“I also speculate, however, that many people will continue
to think and say that the conditions of life are
getting worse.”
Life Expectancy
                  Fact




                  Theory
Price of Raw Resources
                         Theory




                         Fact
Think Utility
      not
Physical Quantity
Physical Quantity
Physical Quantity
Drill or Holes?
Do the 88
 keys limit
the number
of potential
   songs?
High Prices

      Use Less
Innovate a Substitute
Innovate a Substitute
Innovate a Substitute
Ideas make things valuable
 Only humans have ideas
 Therefore, only humans
   make things valuable
 Therefore, only humans
  make things valuable
 Therefore, only humans

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Scarcity or abundance

  • 1. 2012 Best year in history Best year in history Less Hunger Less Disease More Prosperity
  • 2. How does the media make money? make money? Sells you to advertisers Fear gets attention No context
  • 3. Julian Simon (1932-1998) The Ultimate Resource The ultimate resource is people–especially skilled, spirited, and hopeful young people endowed with liberty–who will exert their wills and imaginations for their own benefit, and so inevitably they will benefit the rest of us as well.” — The State of Humanity (1995) This is my long-run forecast in brief: the material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely. Within a century or two, all nations and most of humanity will be at or above today’s Western living standards. “I also speculate, however, that many people will continue to think and say that the conditions of life are getting worse.”
  • 4.
  • 5. Life Expectancy Fact Theory
  • 6. Price of Raw Resources Theory Fact
  • 7. Think Utility not Physical Quantity Physical Quantity Physical Quantity
  • 9. Do the 88 keys limit the number of potential songs?
  • 10. High Prices Use Less Innovate a Substitute Innovate a Substitute Innovate a Substitute
  • 11. Ideas make things valuable Only humans have ideas Therefore, only humans make things valuable Therefore, only humans make things valuable Therefore, only humans