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Custom event prospecting: Winning with Targeting in the Data Gold Rush

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Analyze events for your mobile marketing strategy and learn how to improve ROI, ROAS, and scale.

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Custom event prospecting: Winning with Targeting in the Data Gold Rush

  1. 1. Custo m Eve nts Pro spe cting W i n n i n g w i t h T a r g e t i n g i n t h e D a t a G o l d R u s h
  2. 2. • Intro • Methods • Applications • Challenges A G E N D A
  3. 3. I N T R O
  4. 4. • Senior marketer (8 years ASO, PPC, Paid Social) • Author/Speaker (300+ blog posts, Advanced ASO Book, AGS & ASO Conferences) • True Data Nerd G A B E K W A K Y I C E O & C O - F O U N D E R , I N C I P I A & X Y L A UA, ASO, Creative, Analyticsagency AdvancedASO conference MobileanalyticsSaaS platform
  5. 5. To influence the future W H AT I S T H E G O A L O F S T U D Y I N G E V E N T S ?
  6. 6. F A C E B O O K E X A M P L E Example #1 of Facebook using event prospecting on the path to $500 billion valuation
  7. 7. M E T H O D S
  8. 8. • Define the user behavior you want to influence to segment users • Boolean (user is a power user/not) • Segments (minnows / dolphins / whales in revenue generation) • Model-based (LTV) • Cohort users to remove time influence • Gather the data • User ID • Acquisition date • Event timestamp • Revenue P R E P A R AT I O N
  9. 9. S T E P 1 : C O R R E L AT I O N / R E G R E S S I O N Goal: identify which events are most correlated with desired behavior Raise confidence in which event most influences the desired outcome (e.g. app opens)
  10. 10. S T E P 2 : I N F L E C T I O N P O I N T Goal: use the 1st derivative of the smoothed line to identify the point of diminishing returns (i.e. maximum value) within a single event Raise confidence in how many instances of that event most influences the desired outcome (e.g. 34 app opens)
  11. 11. S T E P 3 : D E C I S I O N T R E E / R A N D O M F O R E S T Goal: identify which combination of events is correlated with the desired behavior Raise confidence that other events are not influencing the desired outcome (e.g. 22 app opens AND 3 key actions per app open)
  12. 12. A P P L I C AT I O N S
  13. 13. 100% of users 50% of users 5% of users .5% of users TA R G E T I N G Q U A L I T Y U S E R S Goal: balance desired behavior confidence vs feasibility/economy of reach
  14. 14. 100% of users 50% of users 5% of users .5% of users TA R G E T I N G Q U A L I T Y U S E R S Goal: prospect events to use in custom event optimized advertising campaigns
  15. 15. A C T I V AT I N G P O W E R U S E R S Source: https://andrewchen.co/power-user-curve/ Goal: identify which behaviors predict that a user will become a power user What events are missing in this cohort? What events are present in this cohort?
  16. 16. R E TA I N I N G U S E R S V I A K E Y B E H A V I O R S Example #2 of Facebook using event prospecting on the path to $500 billion valuation
  17. 17. R E TA I N I N G U S E R S V I A K E Y B E H A V I O R S
  18. 18. M A K I N G M O R E M O N E Y V I A K E Y F E AT U R E S Example #3 of Facebook using event prospecting on the path to $500 billion valuation
  19. 19. P R E V E N T I N G U N D E S I R A B L E B E H A V I O R S Goal: Prospect events with a negative impact on your bottom line 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% $- $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10+ 100+ 300+ User profit vs churn likelihood by hours of content cosumed per month company profit per user Churn Likelihood
  20. 20. P R E D I C T I N G P R O F I T S Goal: Prospect events which predict users will ultimately convert from trial to subscription
  21. 21. • Providing inputs • Data Locker • Master API • Protect 360 • People-based attribution • Deploying outputs • Ad channels (campaign targets, exclusions, lookalikes, remarketing) H O W A P P S F LY E R F I T S
  22. 22. E V E N T P R O S P E C T I N G A P P L I C AT I O N I D E A S Event correlation: • Use in-app messaging to activate on key event in first session • Prime users with ad creative to activate key event • Use onboarding flow to informusers thatthey can unlock new value after activating a key event Inflection point: • Use push notification to driveusers to inflection count • Use gameification mechanics to drive users to inflection count • Use tooltip/onboarding to driveusers to inflection count • Use inflection of average purchasepricevs LTV to optimize pricing Decision tree: • Split test event mix lookalikes • Targetmix event-optimized campaigns • Set rewarded ad/video payoutto the right mix • Offer freebies/incentives to reach the right mix
  23. 23. 1. Overlap of events can cause cannibalization (assessed based on depth) 2. Events too deep in the funnel (<1%) do not work well 3. Events located within the first 3 days work best 4. UAC > Facebook for custom events 5. Optimizing for custom events can work, at scale A P P LY I N G E V E N T P R O S P E C T I N G V I A U A L E S S O N S L E A R N E D 0.844 22.806 3.782 12.488 4.501 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5 Averageoccurrencein days after install Event 1: good (low confidence?) Event 2: too deep Event 3: nearly right Event 5: too close to event 3 Event 4: too deep
  24. 24. • Ensure that events & desired outcomes are independent / not correlated (e.g. purchases and ARPU) • Selecting the right model (e.g. normal/not data distribution OR monetization model) • Cost to leverage the data (product vs advertising vs push notification) • Transferring findings from the lab into the real world (Hawthorne effect) C H A L L E N G E S
  25. 25. T H A N K Y O U L E T ’ S C O N N E C T P R O J E C T S @ I N C I P I A . C O I N C I P I A . C O @ I N C I P I A 2 4 8 - 5 6 5 - 8 0 0 2

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