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Introduction to Risk Assessment


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Introduction to Risk Assessment

  1. 1. Futur i s Environment-Health-Safety Technical Discussion on Risk Assessment Emma Tristán [email_address]
  2. 2. Futur i s
  3. 3. <ul><ul><li>Levels of risk tolerance are different </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Systems and methods exist to identify, analyze and evaluate risks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Management standards include: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>ISO 14001, OHSAS 18001, ISO 31000 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enables management to plan and focus on priorities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Promotes proactive, not reactive management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Essential for decision making </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Complies with legal requirements and international standards </li></ul></ul>Why Talk About Risk Assessment in EHS?
  4. 4. <ul><li>More... </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve confidence of all stakeholders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Avoid surprises </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Effective use of resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Promotes operational efficiency and effectiveness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve performance; minimize losses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve corporate learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve corporate resilience </li></ul></ul>Why Talk About Risk Assessment in EHS?
  5. 5. Evaluación de Riesgo en la Gestión
  6. 6. <ul><ul><li>Always putting out fires </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No time to plan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assessments require resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No culture supporting transparent assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Can lead to irrational decision-making </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inspections are “enough” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Inspections and risk assessments are not the same thing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of awareness of risk management among management </li></ul></ul>Why do so frequently fail at risk assessment?
  7. 7. <ul><li>Have your hazardous properties changed? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A live tiger is always dangerous.. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Only the control measures have changed </li></ul></ul>Risk Assessment Application
  8. 8. <ul><ul><li>Danger is anything that can potentially casuse damage (TIGRE) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>An Undesirable Event is an unexpected and adverse situation that normally involves the interaction of “aspecto con un receptor” (QUE ME COMA) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk is a function of an undesirable event: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The probability of occurrence </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The consequences </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Control is about limiting the possibility of an undesirable event occurring </li></ul></ul>Some RA Concepts
  9. 9. Risk Assessment Matrix P R O B A B I L I D A D CONSECUENCIA M M H H E E E E E H H H H H M M M H M M L L L L L
  10. 10. <ul><ul><li>Can be tailored to a wide variety of situations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Should represent the real needs of the company </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is systematic and consistent </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>All activities measured with the same tool </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Applies the same criteria </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is transparent, inclusive, dynamic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Requires team involvement </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Should vary as changes occur </li></ul></ul></ul>Risk Management Matrix
  11. 11. <ul><li>Swiss Cheese Model </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Determines effectiveness of controls </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>That exists between danger and an undesirable event </li></ul></ul>Application: Quality Controls
  12. 12. <ul><li>Often, Risk Assessment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Excludes the undesirable event </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The probability is applied to the danger and not the undesirable event </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The assessment of probability tends to be higher </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Probability assessment tends to be higher </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Example of a “stair fall” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk estimation controls: </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Danger! Quality control can be poor and lose site of the hazard </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Both normal and abnormal situations are not considered </li></ul></ul>Application: Error Frequency
  13. 13. Levels of Risk Assessment <ul><ul><li>Three Levels of RA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>With increasing levels of detail </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Different tools to meet different levels of complexity </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenge Operational Realities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Identifying hazards </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Determining undesirable effects </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Establishing control measures </li></ul></ul></ul>Level 1: Baseline Level 2: Theme Level 3: Risks by Tasks Increase Level of Detail
  14. 14. Level 1: Baseline <ul><li>Risk Assessment Baseline </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Applies across the operations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide a basis for identifying operation risk profiles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify high risk activities that require more detailed analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assess risks and control measures to achieve lower levels of risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reviewed regularly, especially after major changes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher priority issues should be discussed regularly </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Level 2: Focus on the Issues at Hand <ul><li>RA should focus on the primary issues: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Applies to the high risk activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Previously identified in the baseline analysis </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Often using highly specialized techniques </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Challenging infrastructure and systems </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Examples include: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>HAZOP </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bow Tie </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fault Tree Analysis </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Failure Mode Analysis </li></ul></ul></ul>
  16. 16. <ul><li>HAZOP </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hazard and Operability Study </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>For the design and operational phases of complex processes involving: </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. Plants, chemicals, refineries etc </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Divide processes into descrete and separate sections </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The HAZOP team must detemine possible design deviations and its causes and consequences </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>And decide if current safeguards are sufficient </li></ul></ul></ul>Level 2: Focus on Issues: HAZOP