Beyond 2020


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Selected scenarios for the business context beyond 2020 from FutureWorld

Published in: Business, Technology
  • Thought provoking. Thank you and Mahalo nui loa.
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  • Excellent
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  • @jjwakeford Love your comment, even though there are some non-optimistic MindBullets. There are already similar conversations around ‘conscious capitalism’ on our FuturesForum blog at I’m going to repost your comment there and perhaps we can continue the discussion there with you and the rest of the FutureWorld network – do join us there. Thanks once again for your interesting thoughts. Doug Vining
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  • Most MindBullets and also much of this presentation present a 'techno-optimistic' vision of the future. I am wondering how you envisage the pathway from where the world is now (mired in debt crises, facing an increasing number and severity of resource constraints, sliding down the path to global-scale conflict, etc.) to this rosy future. And in particular, what sort of financial-monetary system does the FutureWorld team envisage? The debt-based, interest-bearing, commercially dominated monetary system that is in the early stages of disintegration now is an anachronism of the industrial era, that will not survive either (1) the depletion of natural resources or (2) the effects of the new information revolution, whichever triumphs in the end.
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  • In a world where all knowledge is available to all from birth (slide 17) who decides what is true, just or accurate? Will this not necessitate a form of gate-keeping?
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Beyond 2020

  1. 1. Beyond>2020 Selected scenarios forthe business context beyond 2020 Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  2. 2. Beyond>2020 The end of ‘products’ & ‘manufacturing’ 25% of retail products are manufactured at the point of use. Raw materials, logistics and retail industries in turmoil.For those cases where physical products are still needed they will be ‘manufactured’where and when needed on desktop ‘3D printers’. Want a new pair of designer shoes?Look it up at and print a pair now. Want a mobile phone? Just click andprint.The new retail therapy culture is “I want it now and I want it cheap” and has spawned amerger of Wal-Mart and‘ Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  3. 3. Beyond>2020 The end of ‘products’ & ‘manufacturing’ Expensive ‘Products’ have become free ‘Services’. Answering mc > Mobile phone Walkman/iPod > iPhone/everywhere Internet/Comms > Basic Human Right Washing machines > SM fabrics + USWe got used to this at the end of the 20th Century as physical answering machineswere replaced by free ‘answering services’ on mobile phones. No amount ofbenchmarking would have identified Aiwa’s new competitors!So Apple’s Pod became a service on the iPhone and every other device. Personalcommunications have become a basic human right (the UN, June 2010) andbandwidth a total commodity. No one buys a washing machine anymore as eachwardrobe contains a tiny ultrasound device that shakes the dirt and grime out of your‘shape memory’ clothes that remember the shape they were when new. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  4. 4. Beyond>2020Retail & professional services reinvented 75% of retail is online. ‘Shopping’ has become an entertainment for the elite. Most business processes are audited in real time.Ubiquitous connectivity has brought real competition, and on-site 3D printing, plussuperb logistics (again driven by competition) have turned malls into high-endentertainment palaces or derelict dumps.Professional services companies are grappling to find new annuity revenue sources.But clients love the end of the “tyranny of the annual audit.” Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  5. 5. Beyond>2020 Business on digital steroids ‘Everything’ that can be automated is. 90% of business processes are online and audited in real-time. Customer service outsourced to those who know it best! Customers.Almost everything is measured, counted and audited in real time, making businessreporting a non-event. And putting the customer in charge of their own service,which Amazon perfected 20 years ago, has become the only way. Customers –well, they just love it! The old adage “The customer is King” has finally come true. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  6. 6. Beyond>2020 100 is the new 60Bio and nanotech have revolutionised health care and prevention. Those who will live to 200 have already been born. Now there is talk of life beyond 500. Population growth is limited to the ‘poor’ countries - in rich countries negative growth is complemented by carefully ‘managed immigration’. But the big question is – will you die before you run out of money? There are selective incentives for euthanasia. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  7. 7. Beyond>2020 The third youth revolutionAge & experience no longer equals power.Youngsters commit the largest (electronic) crimes, are fighting virtual wars and managing fractal investment portfolios. Most financial management is now based on chaos theory and fractal algorithms – and the kids just ‘get it’! Hiring the best is no longer a viable strategy. Corporations compete aggressively to have the ‘coolest workplace’, and to attract the ‘brightest young things’. It is recognised that people are no longer a company’s most important asset – relationships are. The under 30s can handle twenty times the number of relationships that their seniors can. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  8. 8. Beyond>2020 Everyone is connected – and it’s a basic human right ‘Everyone’ is connected, for ‘free’! The idea of the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ is out-dated.In a world of ‘digital plenty’, there are only the ‘haves’ and the ‘want-nots’! Top-quality digital education is available to virtually anyone who wants it – and connectivity, through a slew of cool mobile devices (including a few implanted versions) has become effectively free. Most governments provide broadband access as a basic service. There’s no reason not to be part of this hyper-connected world – unless you deliberately choose to opt out. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  9. 9. Beyond>2020 Nothing is forgotten – everything can be ‘googled’ Every detail of personal and work life is recorded and stored in ‘The Cloud’.A decade ago, cloud computing was an emerging technology and the battleground ofgiants like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google. Today, we don’t care who isrunning ‘The Cloud’; we just use it and rely on it. Remember personal backups andcorporate data-centers? Archaic and forgotten! Everything we do in business and in our personal lives, from records toentertainment is stored in the cloud and available anytime, anywhere and on anydevice. Privacy and security concerns are a thing of the past. Nothing is forgotten,and everything can be found. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  10. 10. Beyond>2020 Size means nothing. Scale is it. Everyone can access sophisticatednetworks, computing power & software. Today, size means nothing. Even the smallest entrepreneurial business has access to virtually unlimited computing power and sophisticated software, in The Cloud. It’s all about scale, and anyone can scale! We can access virtual server networks in an instant, on demand. Whether a contract calls for genomic sequencing for thousands, or actuarial calculations on a real-time basis, the answer is “Yes, we can!” Barriers to entry have disappeared, and agility is more important than strength. Innovation rules the day. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  11. 11. Beyond>2020 Beyond ‘Green’ ‘Eco-wars’ have polarised the world. Only the previously rich West still has green passions & is fighting holy wars… …but can’t afford the consequences.Beyond 2020, reality vs. morals and principles has become much more complex – eventhough openness has driven the issues to the surface. While much of the world exploitsgreen business opportunities and we enjoy the benefits of green energy breakthroughs,environmental factors have divided businesses and countries. The new economic leadersfrom the East have prospered, with a pragmatic, business-like approach. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  12. 12. Beyond>2020 The new gold Water is the new scarcity and the newopportunity. Legislation gives every product a ‘water index’. Bottled water is now the preserve of the ultra-insensitive.By 2014 it was clear – water was the critical issue facing our planet, or rather, the lack ofpotable water, and its impact on our ability to feed earth’s almost 8 billion people.Today in 2022 we have to cope with water taxes on every product, cradle to cradle waterindexes for every product. Even meat consumption is under pressure. The water ratingsare made public on all packaging, billboards and in every advertisement in every medium,making the old cigarette health warnings seem tame and mild by comparison!China, always seeing further ahead than Western nations, lead the race for water securitywith its Tibetan glacier plan. No country or business can escape the intense publicscrutiny of its business model and the water implications. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  13. 13. Beyond>2020 Naked Leadership Leaders have learnt to thrive in a ubiquitously open & transparent world – beyond the luxuries of hierarchies &control. They understand the future as well as they do the past. They network their dreams and inspire followership.Uber-connectivity has demonstrated to a generation of young leaders that collaborationis possible, simple - and delivers great results. Individual ego is being left behind in thepursuit of new sustainable business and government, although many politicians arestruggling with the concept. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  14. 14. Beyond>2020 Betting the Pharm Pharming is booming! In response to huge demands for food, water and health,bio- and nanotech have spawned massive new industries.The start of the 21st Century saw the glory days of the “old” Information Revolution.But now the new Information Revolution is in full swing, with bio- and nanotechnologyat last delivering on their promises. Many people work at jobs in industries that simplydid not exist 10 years ago. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  15. 15. Beyond>2020 Bring your own!The company computer has gone the way of the company car. BYO is the norm. Cloud services hunt down, delete and replace data and tools, instantly!One of the biggest impacts has been on traditional IT departments. With everythingfrom management of devices to software support becoming Cloud-driven services,old IT drones have had to reinvent themselves – as did auditors and other bean-counters. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  16. 16. Beyond>2020 A truly open society Openness and transparency are not just corporate- and political-speak.They are integral to cultural norms - with profound implications. A decade ago, FutureWorld called it “the greatest power shift in human history” – the movement of power from governments and institutions into the hands of connected individuals. We saw it happening in the Arab Spring, and in the “99%” protest movement that spread around the globe. Now, openness and transparency are truly embedded in business, politics and society. The implications are profound, as an entire generation of last-decade politicians and business leaders have learnt, to their cost. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  17. 17. Beyond>2020 Beyond knowledge Beyond the Knowledge Economy -knowledge has zero value - it’s all available to everyone from birth. New lenses create quantum value.Remember the old saying: “Knowledge is power”? Not in a world where all knowledgeis available to everyone. This has powerfully demonstrated that knowledge alone isnot the definer of value – it’s the ability to turn knowledge into intelligence and creativity.Making access to knowledge available to all has sparked dramatic innovation. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  18. 18. Beyond>2020 Conscious Capitalism established Thriving on inclusivity and sustainable profitsGreed doesn’t work as a strategy – finally, the penny has dropped! Business leadershave embraced inclusivity, aligning commercial interests, community pressures and jobcreation. Leaders have developed ‘quantum relationship’ skills to engage with a diverseset of role players. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  19. 19. Beyond>2020 Welcome to the rEconomy!In this ubiquitously connected world, people are no longer your most valuable asset… …relationships are!Return-on-relationships is the key value-driver in this ultra-connected world. Winningbusinesses seek to build long-term partnerships, rather than pursue short-term “win-lose”gains. People will always be important – but the capacity to network is priceless! Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  20. 20. Beyond>2020 Market forces shape everything! It’s a war for talent and customers. Create a cool culture to attract BYTs.Connect your business to the hearts of your customers, communities and individuals. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  21. 21. Beyond>2020Winners have learnt to thrive on chaos and turbulence. Incrementalism doesn’t cut it anymore! Profound success is not predictable. Taking risks is safer than doing nothing. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  22. 22. Beyond>2020 Markets are dynamic and chaotic – the most competitive ever. It’s the end of ‘competition’.Winners find white-space opportunities where there are no competitors. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  23. 23. Beyond>2020The future is unknowable – it’s the field of all possibilities! Uncertainty is that moment of real freedom, beyond historic baggage. Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  24. 24. Beyond>2020 The future is the only destination we have. We’ll spend most of the rest of our lives there.Choose your future carefully! Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved
  25. 25. Beyond>2020Explore these alternate futures further with MindBullets and FuturesForum …at Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved