Cities Forever: 10 Insights into Urbanisation


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Half the world's population lives in cities and urbanisation continues apace.

Is this a good thing? And what trends can we expect to see over the next 10 years

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Cities Forever: 10 Insights into Urbanisation

  1. 1. Cities forever?10 Insights into global urbanisation
  2. 2. GrowthStories Bringing you a flavour of business growth just 5 minutes A Futures Coaching initiative
  3. 3. shifting sandsOver half of us now live in citiesAccording to the WHO this is NOT good newsThey say cities face a triple threat of:infectious diseases, chronic non-communicable diseases, and risks from roadaccidents, injuries, violence and crime
  4. 4. densification However, densification increases communication, accelerates the spread of ideas and can lead to innovative cultures
  5. 5. extremistanThe theory of extremistan is that society increasinglyrejects the average and invests in the best of the bestIn cities this translates to theiconic buildings in the CBDs ofthe Worlds greatest citiesIn 2010, rents in the City ofLondon rose 25% and Shanghai28%Small compared to Rio +47%and Hong Kong, a wacking51%! Source: Cushman and Wakefield, 2011
  6. 6. secret cities12% of all global growth in GDP over the next decade willcome from the 50 largest secondary and tertiary cities inChina. Yet who, in the West, has heard of most of them?Changchun Haikou Lanzhou Shaoxing WuhanChangsha Hangzhou Luoyang Shenyang WuxiChangzhou Harbin Nanchang Shijiazhuang XianChengdu Hefei Nanjing Suzhou XiamenChongquing Hohhot Nanning Taiyuan XiangyangDalian Jiaxing Nantong Tangshan XuzhouDongguan Jilin Ningbo Tianjin YantaiFoshan Jinan Qingdao Urumqi ZhengzhouFuzhou Jinhua Quanzhou Weifang ZhongshanGuiyang Kunming Shantou Wenzhou ZhuhaiSource: Jones Lang LaSalle, China 50, 2012
  7. 7. cities or nothingIn many countries around the world, virtually all wealth and opportunities are found in urban areasProperty investors in Africa, for example, need not look outside the major townships
  8. 8. cities becoming nothing Urbanisation has been going on long enough now for examples to emerge of failing citiesGelsenkirchen in Germanys Ruhr region is over-indebted; any city that cant invest goes kaput Americas Detroit lost 25% of its population from 2000-2010 – what does that do to a city?
  9. 9. slumurbia Americas investment in suburbs has been called the greatest waste of resources of all time As pump prices climb towards $4 a gallon, City Centres are becoming attractive again This is leaving many stranded assets. For examplederelict shopping malls are being converted into business campuses and Universities (examples of both in San Antonio) and mixed use schemes (eg. Natick in Boston)
  10. 10. brandingBranding cities has become a key trendLondon as the worlds financial centre; Rio as gay friendly; Paris inthe heart of romantics everywhereIn some cases, such branding will be used to revive dying cities,as with Japans Yubari City – a City with great debts but very lowdivorce rates
  11. 11. green cities Amongst the multitude of greening initiatives, how about this?Gotham Greens in New York has 15,000 square feet of green housing on its rooftop and produces 80 tons of vegetables for the local community
  12. 12. There is a dream of smart cities where sensors connect everything seemlessly toprovide efficient transport, waste and energy managementThese dreams are shared by IBM, Singapore Municipality etc.Such initiatives will remain just that, dreams. Almost no examples of concreteinitiatives exist (Masdar City comes closest, perhaps). Planners get rapidly stuck onlack of public-private financing and competition between supplierssmart cities
  13. 13. What has Futures Coaching been upto during March 2012?Analysing social change amongst Filipino and Indonesianwomen and impacts on health marketingRunning deep-dive consumer research on social mediaPresenting to a retail property audience on consumerfutures & impact on retailDeveloping future-facing insights to revolutionise branchformats for a retail bankPitching for the future of human communicationsBlogging on Asian trends and growth strategies
  14. 14. Working with Future Coaching Conference speeches on major trends - accelerating management awareness Workshopping trends – evaluating impacts on businesses or brands; future-proofing existing offers Brainstorming sessions – innovating to harness growth Reports on the future of sectors or industries – jumping ahead of the curve; achieving thought leadership; building in longevity Training for consumer insight teams – boosting internal futuring capabilities
  15. 15. LONDON • PARIS Website: www.futurescoaching.comBlog: Email: