Global Futures Forecast 2013


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The Global Futures Forecast 2013 covers the top trends that will impact business, society and individuals in the coming year. It is published by Dr.. James Canton, Futurist, Keynote Presenter, author the Extreme Future, CEO Institute for Global Futures, a San Francisco based think tank.

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Global Futures Forecast 2013

  1. 1. GFF 2013GLOBAL FUTURES FORECASTThe Top Trends that will Shape the Coming YearDr. James Canton, CEO Institute for Global Futures
  2. 2.        Executive SummaryComplex radical change, both risk and opportunity, will define the next year.New trends will change the game of business, government and society. Everyperson, government and organization must get ready now for the trends thatwill drive the future.This year’s theme is about being Future-Ready, the capacity to leverage,monetize and adapt. Being ready for these emerging trends, the capacity toadapt and learn now how to prepare for risks, competition and opportunity isessential to thriving in 2013. This forecast is a recognition that seriouschanges are emerging faster then even the forecasts can keep up with. Theextreme future is coming fast.First published in 1990, The Global Futures Forecast continues to be aninsightful resource for business, entrepreneurs and government leaders whoneed to know what’s coming next—the risks, challenges and opportunitiesthat will shape the future. The Global Futures Forecast is published by Dr.James Canton, CEO & Chairman of the Institute for Global Futures. IGF is aleading think tank based in San Francisco, California that provides keynotes,consulting and forecasts on global trends and business strategy for theFortune 500, entrepreneurs and government. We have identified the keytrends that we think will create risk, progress and opportunity this comingyear.The themes this year will be velocity, innovation and learning. Changing fastand deep enough to embrace new opportunity, will be vital for everyorganization. Every organization must transform itself to becoming aninnovation network that attracts talent, enables new learning, fostersproductivity and offers insight. This will be a key strategy for every leader andtheir organization to embrace—Innovate or die.Trend Convergence is also a theme of the new year. It defines how differenttrends converge and suggest a new way to look at trends as combinations offorces rather then as linear or isolated trends. Computing, biotech and theaging Baby Boomer generation, economic wealth and the desire for livingGLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 2
  3. 3. longer and healthier is transforming health care, is one example of TrendConvergence.This coming year will be a refresh for many and trying for others who are notchanging fast enough as leaders, organizations or governments. What wemean about changing fast enough is that learning, creating, innovating andrealigning their organizations to be of Strategic Value to customers is ofparamount importance. Embrace the velocity of change and thrive in 2013.Here’s what’s next:Innovation NationAre you living in a Innovation Nation? Innovation, science and technology arestill the key driver of GDP in the US and EU but too few other nations aroundthe world. Over one third of US GDP is innovation driven. The business ofinvesting in the six basic sciences—nano, bio, neuro, info, robotics andquantum will transform the competitiveness and prosperity of nations andeconomies. The key to prosperity as well as a higher quality of life, is scienceand innovation investments. The US is still the leader in nanotech patents forexample.The number of nanotechnology patents has grown continuously since 2000.Between 2007 and 2012 the total number of U.S. patent applications, U.S.granted patents and published international patent applications grew fromabout 14,250 to almost 18,900. US leads in mobile, online and IT as well. ButAsia is coming on strong especially Korea, Japan and of course Singaporewhere innovation is celebrated. China is moving fast in this direction.Innovation drives prosperity. More then ever, innovation cultures will definethe future sustainability of a nation. Innovation nations will attract the talent,the capital, the assets, the business and see their economies soar. Nationsthat provide easy open access to communications, mobile and onlineeducation, information and trade will see robust innovation growth in marketsand prosperity.GLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 3
  4. 4. Are you supporting the next generation of education, health care, security andenergy innovations? Does your nation support the next generation of scienceand technology that will drive opportunity, sustainability and growth? One wayto measure the Innovation Capacity of a nation (inventiveness in researchand development) is by the number and types of patents it produces. This isan easy metric to evaluate. What is your Innovation Capacity?M Commerce ExplodesMobile commerce may exceed forecasts of $214 billion before 2015. Allbusiness is being transformed by the mobile Internet. The fusion of socialmedia and online commerce over mobile will become the largest globalmarketplace. These forecasts are low because they don’t consider the non-traditional mobile markets such as telehealth, gaming, entertainment andteleconferencing that are emerging. Mobile commerce, driven by millions ofapps, smart phones, cloud computing and newer faster chips (thanks again toMoore’s Law) are creating a revolution that is unprecedented.The Internet of things, where every “thing” has an IPaddress tied to the Internet is emerging this year. Lookfor phone and app’s based e-wallets, enabled by NFC,Google Wallet and ISIS to explode this year. Brands takenotice. Consumer adoption of mobile commerce is juststarting. This coming holiday season will complete thetransformation. Billions in business will go to the mobilecommerce platform—music, health, learning,communication, entertainment. This is a megatrend ofhuge proportions. It is the next evolution of the business.Think mobile. Think success.GLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 4
  5. 5. The Social Media EnterpriseToo many organizationsthink that social mediausage is for kids, boredGen X, consumers andsoccer moms. They aremissing the point.Enterprise social mediais a game changer forbusiness. It cantransform theenterprise’s stodgyculture to make it moredynamic, collaborative,and real-time. Integratingsocial media such as Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, Slideshare, andPinterest could change the way your workforce culture interacts making themconsumer savvy and interacting with each other, well like consumers. ThinkAgility think social media.The Predictive OrganizationBusiness is evolving fast. The ecosystem of businesses that collaborate, link,share and compete is being transformed. Every organization is a predictiveorganization—whether they know it or not. How well they are doing atprediction defines their Prediction Capital as a business--did they get it rightabout that trend in social commerce or are they ready for mobile business?Every day we spend at work predicting what customers will think, buy, needand desire. Your Prediction Capital determines what product or service tomake.This actually defines success.Why people will want this ornot in the future. Prediction isthe background ofobviousness to organizationalculture its just invisible tomany. Prediction isfundamental to the strategicsuccess of an organization.The real question is how wellis your organization doing onanticipating the future?Predictive analytics, predictivesimulations and data scienceare going to become criticallyimportant to managing globalorganizations given theGLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 5
  6. 6. complexity of markets, competition and fast change. When you combine bigdata analytics with prediction you have a vastly different organization andaccess to new tools of insight. Companies that get this are growing. Blab predicts what customers are saying aboutbrands. Leap Commerce predicts what yourcustomer will buy. Google predicts what you want to search for. Amazonpredicts what you’ll need and when. Facebook predicts brands users want toassociate with. How are you doing in the prediction game?Sustainable CitiesCities must become sustainable to remain relevant environments of prosperityand quality of life. Sustainable cities are essential to the future of the planet.In 2010, 82% of Americans lived in cities; by 2050 it will be 90% according toSiemens. Wealth and buying power on the planet is moving to cities. We mustbuild and retrofit cities to become healthy, secure and environmentallyresponsible urban centers for humanity.Cites today are responsible foraround two thirds of the energyused, 60% of all water consumedand 70% of all greenhouse gasesproduced worldwide. The challengesand risks facing the future of citiesare immense—security, water,transportation, power, environment,health, and work are just some ofthese critical areas. Sustainablecities must become moreenvironmentally clean, non-polluting,energy efficient, while increasing thequality of life for their residents, andenabling social responsibility.Building the sustainable cities of thefuture will be a massive neweconomic engine of growth.Extreme Climate ChangeThe rise of global disease. Tornados in the U.S. Northeast. Drought in theMiddle East. Tsunamis in Asia. Extreme warming in Europe. Cat 5-like stormsin NY. Glacier melt in the arctic. Abrupt climate change is here. This is aglobal risk factor that governments are not effectively dealing with on a scalethat it will make a difference. Business and personal actions will make adifference. Billions of dollars and Euros worldwide will be spent trying to offsetclimate change. The obvious science models we have used for over 100years on climate modeling are becoming useless in the face of acceleratedclimate change. We need better Big Data and analytic forecasting to prepareGLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 6
  7. 7. for the future. Climatechanges on rising sealevels and arctic meltare defying scientificexperts. We are notmodeling fast enoughto keep up. Ourscience models areinadequate to forecastaccurately to preparefor extreme change.What does this mean?The global populationof over 70% lives nearor close to coastalregions that are mostat risk for climatechange.Geoengineering projects like the Capstone Project could make a difference.Insurance on real estate modeling is outmoded. Rising sea models simulatesea level increases that are unsustainable given current storms. Disasterrelief preparation is based on the past and is not Future-Ready. As stormscontinue with extreme changes, from heat to cold, we are not globallyprepared to deal with the future of extreme weather. Best prepare now.The Robots R ComingRobots are changing our world faster thenwe think. Exponential shifts in innovationfrom sensors to computers to mobile areenabling robots to emerge in entirely newforms. This year expect mobile autonomousbots, from tiny hand held drones that fly tothose that work in factories, to robosurgeries becoming the norm. Look also forthe virtual bots, navigating the Internetmonitoring millions of data of Exabytetransactions. Robots in many forms willbecome a pervasive part of our world.Personalized MedicineWe are on the edge of redesigning medicine. A more preventive, predictiveand personalized medical model is emerging. From epigenetics which looksat the heredity role in gene expression for obesity, to fast gene analysis of ourDNA, to the customized drugs we will be manufacturing on-demand, totelehealth, big data, geo-medicine and population economics, to nano-virusdrugs to nano-devices; medical innovations are fast transforming health care.GLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 7
  8. 8. The combination of synthetic biology andmolecular medicine is creating a new model forthe future of medicine. Neuroscience ischallenging our very notions of what role thebrain has in health. The current medical model isunder fire, shifting from a disease-focus to awellness focus.Biotech and health care are merging.Regenerative medicine is creating a new fieldwhere longevity is progressing. Digital andmobile health apps enable better health care. Amore precise, cost-efficient and patient-focusedcare is coming. This year personalized medicinewill break out of the research phase, companieslike WellPoint and IBM’s Watson, an artificialintelligent computer and Life who are pioneering fast consumer genomicsequencing are enabling this trend.Learning 2.0Education is not keeping pace with the demand for learning. Beingcompetitive in the global economy is dependent on innovative learning andeducation. These are different. The process of learning must evolve fast. Wecannot educate the way we did 100 years ago, yet we do. The explosion inlearning given theterabytes of informationthat is now availablefrom the digital revolutionis essential to the future.This year new learningmodels, from onlinevirtual learning incorporations anduniversities to evengrade school will witnessa new generation ofstudents. Knowledgeitself is exploding. Keeping up with the massive amount of information, newskills and learning that is required to compete in the global economy willdemand new ways of learning.The impact of social media, mobile collaboration, interactive streamingcollaboration is creating change in learning. The very learning model itself isunder fire. Companies like AlvaEDU will lead the way.We need to bridge the gap between learning demand and learning capacity.We need new ways to learn. Gamification, simulations, knowledgeengineering, globalization, entrepreneurship, interactive and experientiallearning are part of the new era of Learning 2.0.GLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 8
  9. 9. Talent WarForecasts and studies undertaken by IGF would indicate that there is aworkforce trend that if not appreciated and planned for will damage everyorganization worldwide—the searchfor talent. The global talent market isbest characterized by the power shiftfrom organizations, the employers tothe talent, the employees. There ismore demand for smart, tech savvy,global talent then there is talent.More demand then supply. Everyorganization is in a pitched battle fortalent.Talent, the human resources thatshape the destiny of everyorganization is in high demand. Theright talent enables customers,creates the next innovation, brings inthe next big contract and invents theproduct that will make or break yourorganization. Understanding the NewWork Ethic that attracts and retainspeople will be the differentiator in this Talent War. Your future depends ongetting this right and attracting a workforce that will make your organizationFuture-Ready.Neuro-EnhancementThe U.S. National Institutes of Health estimate that the total number of U.S.residents with Alzheimers in 2050 could reach 13.8 million, up from 4.7million in 2010. The aging ofthe Baby Boomers has a darkscenario that if not addressedwill become a global riskfactor for humanity. Thatincludes about 7 millionpeople who would be age 85or older in 2050. If you nowmultiply this number by five,to include the agingpopulations in Asia, especiallyChina and Europe, given birthrates bringing population to 8to 9 billion on the planet, youhave both a forecast of atleast 50 million people and aglobal epidemic of hugeGLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 9
  10. 10. proportions.The bottom line is worldwide we are not spending enough funding onresearch to invent a cure and the clock is ticking. We need a comprehensiveneuro-enhancement research project that can refresh, prevent and heal theaging brain. New approaches in genomics, personalized medicine andregenerative medicine must be invested in heavily and accelerated. We need$1 billion to defeat this fast growing epidemic.Harnessing Big DataMillions of data points are generated by customers and companies everydaythat is never analyzed or even collected. A more intelligent examination ofdata collection, mining and analysis is coming fast. Embedded in this datadeluge may well be new solutions for medicine, alternative energy, climatechange, commerce, security, and crime. In fact, unlocking Big Data can be thesingle most important discovery tool inbusiness.Big Data refers to huge amount of datagenerated by companies, consumers, andmarkets and well, just about everyone leavesa data trail. Understanding how and whatcustomers want is locked up in the data thatgoes for the most part unanalyzed. Big Datasuggests an approach to betterunderstanding how customer’s demands andbehaviors relate to the products and servicesthey need. It gives us another way tounderstand the meaning of data.Personal 3D Printing3D printing is coming and it will change manufacturing perhaps creating anew distributed network of Makers. Last year we reported on the newmanufacturing trend, the Makers Revolution. This year an evolution of this isworth mentioning. We will see the technology of the 3D printing industrycreating organs, cars, instruments and industrial tools and parts emerging thisyear. 3D printing, the three-dimensional manufacture of almost anythingindustrial, may just disrupt traditional manufacturing.GLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 10
  11. 11. Creating a distributednetwork of 3D printers thatcan deliver to the home orbusiness manufacturedproducts on-demand willboth transform and revitalizemanufacturing. From theCAD CAM computer design,to a finished manufacturedproduct, 3D printingpersonalized for your needs,is coming fast. This year willsee amazing progress asthe cost of 3D printers and the range of products—organs to cars willaccelerate the product innovation, creating an entirely new industry—personal3D printing.Energy XThere is not enough energy to keep pace with global GDP by 2030.Expensive fossil fuel energy is a drag on economic growth and prosperity.Also the global warming associated with fossil fuels is now well established.We need Energy X, a new energy source that is clean, renewable and cheap.Energy is at the core of the sustainable future. So alternative energyexperiments today that seem far-fetched may become the innovation driversof the future.The most audacious of these new innovations is fusion. Fusion energy is thepower generated by nuclear fusion processes. In fusion reactions two lightatomic nuclei fuse together. Fusion may become a plentiful, clean, and cheapnew energy resource for the planet. Large fusion experiments in the U.S.(HiPER) and Europe(ITER), are acceleratingthe future when fusionmay fuel the planet.Fusion an energy sourceonce discredited is nowback in research.Promising results areemerging that could pointthe way to a new energyfuture. Even automobilesare undergoing atransformation. Theinternal combustionengine has competition. From hybrids to electrics, we are almost at a tippingpoint when it comes to thinking differently about transportation. As anexample, Tesla and 100% electric cars will be the startGLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 11
  12. 12. of a new energy frontier. While shale and gas offer a clear alternative toforeign oil, they are not the only long-term solution that meets the test forclean alternatives. America is likely to be energy independent by 2025. Getready for Energy X.Quantum Computing Breaks OutIn every GFF forecast we offer an emerging area that is speculative butpromising. Quantum computing, from bits to qubits, is the 2013 choice forwhat could change the world. The application of quantum physics isemerging. As we move into a world where cloud computing and everythingwill move up to the network we need a secure new computing architecture.Where existing computers are based on a linear basis, processing informationsequentially, quantum computers may operate in a multidimensional way,offering vast new computing power.Why would this be important? Think about creating an entirely new computingparadigm where secure, smart, fast and agilequantum computing networks play a fundamentalrole in finding planetary solutions for health care,energy, security, poverty, commerce, climatechange, and finance. The Center for QuantumScience, University of Vienna and the Institute forQuantum Optics and Quantum Information are inthe lead here. Are you ready for the QuantumFuture?GLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 12
  13. 13. For more information about the Institute for Global Futures orDr. James Canton please visit© 2013 Institute for Global FuturesMaybe reprinted and published in its entirety with credits givenGLOBAL FUTURES FORECAST 2013 INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL FUTURES 13