Global Trends 2014 - Future Foundation

Foresight Factory
Feb. 7, 2014

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Global Trends 2014 - Future Foundation

  1. Trends 2014: I N S E RT I M A G E Sample report Identifying the key narratives for global brands In this end of year report we highlight some of the key trend narratives and events that we think will be shaping the consumer landscape in the coming year as well as signposting the global economic outlook. We also review some of the biggest and most significant trend shifts and insights from 2013, identifying what happened across areas such as retail, technology and finance.
  2. Contents (full report) Page Trends 2014: The headlines 4 Trends to Watch in 2014 6 Events 2014: Sport, Politics, Culture, Technology 43 Global Digital Download 47 Global Economic Outlook 2014 48 2
  3. Trends 2014 The headlines More affluence and rising or reinvigorated consumer aspirations everywhere. Technological innovation dramatically improving lifestyle efficiencies. Big Data and Predictive Analytics starting to radicalise the craft of marketing and the expectations of shoppers. Much creative disruption abroad (eg Globalisation) but consumers still aware of dangerous instabilities (eg a perception of increased threats to wellbeing). 3
  4. Trends 2014 The warnings Price sensitivity remains acute - especially in those places where the scarring of the post2008 economy still runs deep and even in those places (eg Sweden, UK) where recovery is real. This is not going to change soon. That said, the flamboyant consumerism of the emerging economies seems irresistible : the Chinese love-affair with brands, for example, does not abate - and stimulates service innovations for the whole global marketplace. The indulgence-compressing spirit of moderation and sobriety is everywhere (specially for food and drink) - as public authorities crack down on excess and consumers evade risk. Ethics and eco-sensitivity have taken a back seat. It would be unwise to invest too much in the belief that this will alter soon. 4
  5. Trends to Watch in 2014 The Versat-aisle Shopper Retail experiences that flow naturally between home and store, street and aisle, mobile and market. Fast Track Globalisation The world gets smaller still, and with more creative means of integration. Probability Gets Personal Consumers harness predictive technologies to pre-empt and prioritise decisions. Very 20th Century Feminism The dilemmas once addressed by 20th Century Feminism seem as stark as ever – and are primed to internationalise as income improvement spreads. Power of Anon As Big Data becomes Big Reality, social networkers will look to platforms that facilitate more selective sharing – sharing that is public yet also private. Catwalk Computing Wearable connectivity allows technology to reach into the very fabric of our lives. 5
  6. Trends to Watch in 2014 Narrative Data Consumers expect their data to be transformed, real-time, into a personalised plan. We want Big Data to tell us useful stories about our lives. Once Is Not Enough No single age – or life stage - is any longer defined by a pre-packaged set of expectations and behaviours. Wired Guanxi A more human face – Soft Power – for e-commerce and Big Data. The Death of Risk Risk is the new evil and safety the new morality, with under-24s one of the least ‘leap-in-the-dark’ generations we have ever seen. Breaking the Fourth Wall Brands create immersive experiences for synaesthetic moments of delight. Totally Bespoke Techno-innovation drives ultra-personalisation and a new route to premiumisation. 6
  7. I N S E RT I M A G E 1 | Fast Track Globalisation 2014 is the year the world gets smaller still. Travel and trade are favoured as the still bouncy Asian economies interact with recovery in the West. Dropped from public debate in the EU while incomes drooped, globalisation as a transformative social phenomenon is now spotlighted again. This revitalises the paradox : yes, greater space across which big brands might prosper but also fresh waves of inter- and intra-regional competition in food & drink, tourism and perhaps (in the long term) financial services too. 7
  8. 1 Fast Track Globalisation More creative integration Growth in the volume of global merchandise trade (%) TREND IN ACTION There is a new superhero joining the Marvel Comics family. She is a Muslim-American teenager named Kamala Khan aka Ms Marvel. The character is just your typical teenager, battling self-identity issues, family problems and super-villains. Khan, who is Pakistani, will be portrayed as a teen who looks up to Captain Marvel... 2011 : 5.4 2012 : 2.3 2013 : 2.5 2014 : 4.5 FOCUS FOR 2014 The prospect of revival in the EU inspires a modest amount of universal hope, given that the EU consumes one third of all the world’s traded goods. Meanwhile, people flows continue to swell and shift. For instance, inbound visitors to the USA from countries such as China, India and Brazil increase by more than 10% per annum. (Visits from many major EU economies have been in decline). Chinese socio-economic influence in Africa and Latin America expands. A pulsatingly global middle-class, meanwhile, shares much of the same lifestyle agenda. Source : Office of Travel and Tourism Industries USA / WTO Sept. 2013 8
  9. 2 | Narrative Data Our use of the online world grows a lot less frivolous. Aware of the importance, private and commercial, of the tracks they leave in cyberspace, consumers want their own version of narrative science : data accumulations activated to reveal the forward path to more efficient living. Instead of going online to find a treatment for an eating disorder, consumers expect to be automatically and proactively provided with a personalised plan for evading any such condition long before it appears on the horizon. We want Big Data to tell us useful stories about our lives. I N S E RT I M A G E 9
  10. 2 Narrative Data Turning data into lifestyle accessory “I would like more control over the personal information I give companies and the way in which it is stored” TREND IN ACTION US : 77% Indonesia : 76% China : 75% France : 73% Australia : 74% Netatmo has developed the pro-active thermostat. Apart from real-time temperature readings, the device can memorise routines and usage patterns, automatically adjusting the temperature. You always turn up the heat when you get back from work? The thermostat will have it done just as you step through the door. FOCUS FOR 2014 We forecast that the Quantified Self will gain further momentum in 2014, creating a stronger foundation for Narrative Data. This whole story beckons a new era of brand engagement where personal data is analysed and tracked to create unique experiences tailored to the individual. This is the gradual subversion of mass message marketing. This is about telling a story about just one character - and using the information that is gathered in ways which sedate consumer anxieties about so much data-mining. Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64 (Mexico 16-54, Indonesia 16-44), 2013 Adjusted data 10
  11. Trends 2014 I N S E RT I M A G E 3 | The Death of Risk The information age has left us more sensitive to threats to our well-being and more capable of assessing the negative value of any such threat. Thrill-seeking has, for many, become synonymous with danger-courting. And so the quest for excitement in our lives (in sports, holidays, career-building, financial management...) has to be triangulated, organised, curated. This fact opens the prospect of ever more anti-risk products and procedures from brands - even those which directly address the under-24s - perhaps the most cautious, least leap-in-the-dark generation that has ever been. 11
  12. 3 The Death of Risk The embourgeoisement of risk “People should think about safety before fun and adventure.” % 16-24s who agree TREND IN ACTION China : 79% Indonesia : 78% India : 73% Brazil : 70% USA : 68% Joey Cofone has developed the Car Mode. Drivers are still able to receive calls and turn-by-turn directions from Siri. But should you get a text while driving, your phone will automatically send the correspondent a message indicating you are on the road. Your phone will automatically switch itself to Car Mode. FOCUS FOR 2014 A greater ability to track the consequences of our behaviours is heightening a risk-driven appetite for security. Safety is now the new morality, often silently shaping consumer approaches to the consumption choices that can negatively impact on well-being. The reality is such that we must enjoy our fun within ultra-safe boundaries - just as we pretend in public that we are more fun-lovingly adventurous than we actually are. The thrust of computerisation is to increase the personalised distribution of Méfiez-Vous signage in every theatre of life and the awareness of the costs of ignoring them. Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64 (Mexico 16-54, Indonesia 16-44), 2013 Adjusted data 12
  13. Events 2014 The cultural, political and technological landmarks to watch in the year ahead. I N S E RT I M A G E 13
  14. • 2014: some special things SPORTS 14
  15. • 2014: some special things POLITICS 15
  16. • 2014: some special things CULTURE La película de Messi llegará antes del Mundial 2014 JK Rowling to pen Harry Potter spin-off film 16
  17. • 2014: some special things TECHNOLOGY Wearable Technology diversifies Connected Trend : Catwalk Computing More Xbox One and PS4 gamers hack their consoles Connected Trend : Making it Mine Biometric sensors revolutionise how data is translated Connected Trend : Narrative Data 3D printing gets affordable Connected Trends : Totally Bespoke Gutenberg gets Physical Data Privacy Legislation Hardens? Connected Trends : Power of Anon Consumer Capital 17
  18. For more information please contact: Pippa Goodman +44 (0)20 3008 6102 LONDON | NEW YORK | STOCKHOLM